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Baroclinic Zone

December 5-6, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast

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Updated BOX AFD for posterity. Enjoy y'all. I'm living vicariously through this thread:

Quote
FXUS61 KBOX 052101
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
401 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM OFF CAPE COD WILL PRODUCE 
GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING HEAVY, 
WET SNOW. THE WIND AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT.  
THE STORM EXITS THROUGH THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. DRY AND COLDER
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A MODERATING 
TREND FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE NEAR OUTER CAPE COD WILL MOVE OFF THROUGH
THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW THIS EVENING WILL TAPER 
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT, ENDING LATEST ALONG THE 
MASSACHUSETTS NORTH SHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

THE RAIN/SNOW LINE MID AFTERNOON EXTENDED FROM BOSTON AND THE 
NORTH SHORE THROUGH THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON, THE NW CORNER
OF RHODE ISLAND, AND NORTHEAST CT. AS THE COASTAL LOW LIFTS PAST
NANTUCKET AND OUTER CAPE COD, EXPECT THE COLDER AIR INLAND TO
MOVE FARTHER EAST AND CHANGE THE RAIN IN RI AND SE MASS TO SNOW.
THAT SHOULD BE ROUGHLY 4 PM TO 7 PM. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL 
REMAIN FROM THE CENTRAL HILLS THROUGH THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN FORECAT AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.

AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST OVERNIGHT, THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST, AND CLEARING
SKIES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL COOL TO THE 20S 
INLAND AND 30-35 ALONG THE COAST.

 

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14 hours ago, DTWXRISK said:

  0z     saturday  euro sounding  ar  7pm sat   has   BOST  at  37   Td  34...  thats NOT snow

 at  30 hrs   Temp is  34  Td  is  28  and  its about to  END

ecmwf_full_2020120500_024_42.5--71.0.png

ecmwf_full_2020120500_030_42.5--71.0.png

 

 

14 hours ago, DTWXRISK said:

  no one looks at the   EURO  or  0 NAM  soundings 

  DANGER WILL     WEENIE   ROBINSON DANGER

 

 

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I’m easily accumulating.  Everything including the roads are covered.  However dynamics and 200 ft elevation has me at 31

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5 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

but we should cool to at least freezing, maybe 31 or 30 right?

Many areas will be around freezing this evening and late tonight. The real key to the forecast for final accumulations rest on those bands hanging over you. Once it lets up, it becomes very showery in nature. So a very precipitation rate intensity driven storm. The storm track is fine, the airmass is debatable.

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This reminds me of the 4-6 thump around the same date in 1996 a few days before the Cantore thunder snow event..  That was modeled wet.

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In a bit of a dry slot down here in SE MA. 35, super windy but nothing falling. That heavy band is about 5 miles to my west. Hopefully it all slowly rotates thru over the next few hours.

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Ripping and getting windy. Definite nor’easter feel but I think this ends up a hair short of memorable, at least around here. Don’t think widespread power problems manifest themselves. 

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