donsutherland1 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Milder air is now poised to move into the region. The remainder of the week will feature above normal to perhaps some much above normal temperatures. Somewhat cooler air could return to the region after next weekend. A sustained warmer pattern could develop toward the winter solstice. The closing 10 days of December could wind up generally warmer than normal. The EPS weeklies and new subseasonal guidance are in strong agreement that the last week of December will likely be warmer than normal. The latest CFSv2 weekly guidance favors much warmer than normal readings. Historic experience following exceptionally warm November cases suggests that a warmer than normal December remains the base case. Almost 90% of cases with a November mean temperature of 51.5° or above in Central Park (2020 saw the temperature average a record 52.9° in November) went on to record a warmer than normal December and just over three-quarters of such cases saw December register a monthly mean temperature of 40.0° or above. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.35°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +5.29. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.913. On December 8 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.901 (RMM). The December 7-adjusted amplitude was 0.678. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the first half of December. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 10/11 (91%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is very likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with below normal snowfall. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December. December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.0°. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Took this at a red light on the way to work this morning 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Picked up 1" today. Still a few very light flurries blowing through. 30° 2.5" for the season so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Took this at a red light on the way to work this morning Red Sky in morning - Sailor's take warning ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Nice high latitude blocking on the gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 wooof monster -NAO if its correct 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said: wooof monster -NAO if its correct High latitude blocking starts before 200 hours. Do you think the blocking is legit this time ? What is your take on the mid month storm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 most of the years with a very negative ao/nao in December had above average snowfall in NYC or a white Christmas...years like 2010...2009...2000...1995...1966...1963...1961... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 10 hours ago, DTWXRISK said: MILLER B EVENT SEEMS LIKELY DEC 16 I know it's just one model run and it's 8 days out, but there's at least hope - I could live with this in CNJ (GFS/CMC show snow N of 84). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, RU848789 said: I know it's just one model run and it's 8 days out, but there's at least hope - I could live with this in CNJ (GFS/CMC show snow N of 84). Alot of sleet near the coast but a big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Eps mean is very favorable This is still a weak away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 45degs.(39/51). Making it 40degs., or about +3.0. Month to date is -0.7[40.3]. Should be about 40.1[+1.0] by the 18th. GFS has a Trace of snow.*** CMC has none. EURO suffers a nervous breakdown on the 17th. with 17"!!!........CAUTION: The EPS is only 50/50 on Any Snow at this timeframe. ***That was the 0Z, the 06Z is 9"-----sorry this is for the 23rd, but we will take it anyway. Check out the 850mb. setups that are in color and we quickly see that only the EURO is positioned far enough east for snow. Since it stays cold after system passage on EURO, TeleC's must be different too. As an aside, the GEFS Extended still shows a sub-zero NYE. In fact it shows the lowest T here since 1943. 39* (75%RH) at 6am. (Low was 36* at 1am). 42* by 9am. 44* by 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 Another big warm up into the weekend following some days that were slightly below normal. So the first 2 weeks of December will average warmer than normal. Very little cold air around following the 4th warmest November on record for the CONUS. KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 12/10/2020 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 THU 10| FRI 11| SAT 12| SUN 13| MON 14| TUE 15| WED 16| THU 17 CLIMO X/N 52| 40 53| 46 57| 52 59| 39 47| 33 42| 38 47| 44 47 30 43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Morning thoughts... Overnight, warmer air began overspreading the region. Today will be partly sunny and noticeably warmer than yesterday. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 50° Newark: 50° Philadelphia: 50° Milder air will prevail through the remainder of the week. Next week could see the return of colder air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 This map would produce a snowstorm here. Unbelievable how things have changed going forward. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 11 hours ago, Rjay said: Took this at a red light on the way to work this morning Looks like an Inga pic on Twitter, beautiful pic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This map would produce a snowstorm here. Unbelievable how things have changed going forward. And in a matter of 3-4 days too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: And in a matter of 3-4 days too This is definitely not last winter. Snow mean on the eps looks amazing. @bluewave look at this blocking!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 25 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This map would produce a snowstorm here. Unbelievable how things have changed going forward. It’s definitely better than last winter. One thing I’m not thrilled about is the ridge east of Hawaii in the means. Normally you want a trough there. Storms that try to amplify may try to cut first and bring warm air in. Maybe the blocking could result in them being snow to rain here or force a redevelopment in time for New England to remain snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 35 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: And in a matter of 3-4 days too You have to wonder if that block suddenly getting stronger close to the Siberian Arctic got an assist from the record warmth and low sea ice. New run Old run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 All globals show a storm middle of next week. Right now it's looking like better snow chances N and W but still a week away. Definitely something to track. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 hour ago, dmillz25 said: And in a matter of 3-4 days too Thanks to blocking Not comparing this to 2010-2011 but that's how we got 60 inchds of snow during the strong la Nina winter until February hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: This map would produce a snowstorm here. Unbelievable how things have changed going forward. How does EPs look in long range past day 10. Does it keep blocking in place? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 38 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Thanks to blocking Not comparing this to 2010-2011 but that's how we got 60 inchds of snow during the strong la Nina winter until February hit. That was a good spread the wealth type of winter. We got it pretty good here too. I'll take a repeat. Though the Arctic blocking that winter remains unrivaled. Unlikely we'll ever see something of that magnitude for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 interesting 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: interesting perfect track! Too bad it's a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: perfect track! Too bad it's a week away. Looks too good to be verified I am just glad we have something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Looks too good to be verified I am just glad we have something to track. Agree. Definitely looks like a slow moving storm. GFS verbatim is 15-20 inches region wide! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 GFS - booyah ICON - Meh CMC - OTS Waiting on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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