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bluewave

December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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December looks like it will start off with a bang if the models are correct.  Huge PNA ridge with a possible negative NAO. Subject to change .

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along the eastern seaboard going to be difficult to snow as of now early in December.....the way the trough sets up at first favors Ohio Valley and Midwest..

sn10_acc.conus.pngalo

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6 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

Our window should be in the 2nd week of December. We might squeeze something in the 1st week but let the pattern set in first.

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8 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

along the eastern seaboard going to be difficult to snow as of now early in December.....the way the trough sets up at first favors Ohio Valley and Midwest..

sn10_acc.conus.pngalo

The first one off the pna spike will definitely go west of us. After the 1 week of December I believe are chances of a snowstorm will be higher. The one around the 5/6th is our first chance. 

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Just a note... I see the EC and GGEM op runs from 00z/25 are favoring another event for our area around the 4th-5th. Have my doubts if the first storm around Dec 1 is big.  Too soon too recover except for a CFP.   

EPS has not much hint,  though-some, and GEFS is all nw flow at 850MB after Dec 1 for a week.

Instead we may need to think about Dec 8-9.  That looks a little more promising to me, including a weeks recovery time.  However, I hope for nw suburbs folks, to be wrong about Dec 4-5. 

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The first one off the pna spike will definitely go west of us. After the 1 week of December I believe are chances of a snowstorm will be higher. The one around the 5/6th is our first chance. 

 

Just now, wdrag said:

Just a note... I see the EC and GGEM op runs from 00z/25 are favoring another event for our area around the 4th-5th. Have my doubts if the first storm around Dec 1 is big.  Too soon too recover except for a CFP.   

EPS has not much hint,  though-some, and GEFS is all nw flow at 850MB after Dec 1 for a week.

Instead we may need to think about Dec 8-9.  That looks a little more promising to me, including a weeks recovery time.  However, I hope for nw suburbs folks, to be wrong about Dec 4-5. 

 

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CMC is 7" on Dec. 04.      Real issue is how many hurricanes is it showing at that time! Lol.

CMC has lost all our Snow on latest run (12Z) and now has snow down to Florida.  (Route 95, anyone?)        Still looking for those ubiquitous CMC TC's.    Lol x 2!

 

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

The first one off the pna spike will definitely go west of us. After the 1 week of December I believe are chances of a snowstorm will be higher. The one around the 5/6th is our first chance. 

Ah the magical dec 5 date lol

 

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

 

 

I think we would want the 1st storm to be a strong lakes cutter to set up for the possible storm around Dec 5.

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18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If The GEFS is correct about the MJO, then the +PNA ridge could rollover toward the Great Lakes and Northeast by mid-December. The current Niño-like +PNA to start December appears to be related to the MJO in the Indian Ocean. So a shift over to the Maritime continent could mean milder conditions by mid-December with the lag.

7089545A-0E3C-4673-A2B1-943585EE627B.png.fe4211a58665badf1b0daff47281d094.png

0D2DDA12-AEB9-4A43-9DA0-0872EA882896.png.d3ee6e210a4930bdcf5384be394bfb04.png

8C624E8B-A052-4F19-939B-30140D555D62.png.e110f6ed2072190e545ba2b7bbb59e07.png

 

 

Could make the end of December and January colder if it continues into the colder phases. 

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4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Drool worthy look to start December 

E383BB6B-40E5-42F2-B2B6-D354236DE030.png

yup.. and all the major models have shortwaves riding through at in the 6-10 day window.. someone is gonna see their first flakes around the 5th.

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4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I think we would want the 1st storm to be a strong lakes cutter to set up for the possible storm around Dec 5.

its not looking like a strong lakes cutter - the 12Z GFS wants it to stall and spin around the Mid Atlantic and Northeast for a few days - could be interesting.....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

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7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

its not looking like a strong lakes cutter - the 12Z GFS wants it to stall and spin around the Mid Atlantic and Northeast for a few days - could be interesting.....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

It's going to take a few days for that to be sorted out. 

I'd still go with the phased solution rather than whatever the gfs is doing.

One thing I'll be keeping an eye on in the ensembles is whether or not the PNA ridge rolls over or not. If it does then we'll warm very quickly by mid December. 

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11 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Any chance this could turn into a snowstorm next week?

Only if you line your street with Dry Ice--------Ooops! -----the government has bought all of it up for the transport/storage of those vaccines.        Sorry,  December 4-5 has or had a better chance.    The BN air does not really reach us now till Week 2.

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5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Very very unlikely thru 12z-Dec 1. 

there's a small chance with the follow up wave. emphasis on small

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We haven't had a good snowstorm in early December in a long time. Wouldn't be a bad time to try again. I fondly remember the blizzards of 2000 and 2003. 

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

If The GEFS is correct about the MJO, then the +PNA ridge could rollover toward the Great Lakes and Northeast by mid-December. The current Niño-like +PNA to start December appears to be related to the MJO in the Indian Ocean. So a shift over to the Maritime continent could mean milder conditions by mid-December with the lag.

7089545A-0E3C-4673-A2B1-943585EE627B.png.fe4211a58665badf1b0daff47281d094.png

0D2DDA12-AEB9-4A43-9DA0-0872EA882896.png.d3ee6e210a4930bdcf5384be394bfb04.png

8C624E8B-A052-4F19-939B-30140D555D62.png.e110f6ed2072190e545ba2b7bbb59e07.png

 

 

If this is correct, then mid-late December turns mild. I believe December, 1988 (also a strong La Niña) had a +PNA run from 12/1 - 12/15 before it flipped. The late November strengthening period for this Niña has begun in earnest, the easterlies are really ripping right now and are projected to continue to do so well into December. Regions 3.4 and 4 are about to see another big SST drop from the upwelling. This is going to really limit how far MJO waves can propagate before they get sheared apart by the very strong easterlies and run into the colder waters....which is why MJO phases 3-6 are favored this winter

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is this the year we see a white Christmas?...here's Newark NJ. since 1945...

year...snow on the ground Christmas morning...snow falling midnight Christmas eve...*...snow falling Christmas day...**

2009...4"

2002...T  * **

1998...1"

1995...4" **

1993...T * **

1983...1"

1980...1" 

1975...1" **

1970...1"

1966...8" *

1963...5"

1962...2" **

1961...8"

1960...2"

1959...3"

1948...3" **

1947...1"

1945...4"

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29 minutes ago, uncle W said:

is this the year we see a white Christmas?...here's Newark NJ. since 1945...

year...snow on the ground Christmas morning...snow falling midnight Christmas eve...*...snow falling Christmas day...**

2009...4"

2002...T  * **

1998...1"

1995...4" **

1993...T * **

1983...1"

1980...1" 

1975...1" **

1970...1"

1966...8" *

1963...5"

1962...2" **

1961...8"

1960...2"

1959...3"

1948...3" **

1947...1"

1945...4"

69 and 76 it snowed Christmas night.Can we get a star for that? lol

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