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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Do you at least have a name on the script or do they just refer to you as "ensign#3" 

I’m Guy Fleegman

Just now, mappy said:

your character isn't important enough. you're going to die 5 minutes in. (hope you get the movie quote)


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Latest from Mount Holly...in other words, stay tuned. Probably not much in the way of ice though.

The current track from the model guidance keeps the low near the coast as it passes by. This would bring precipitation to the entire forecast area, possibly starting as early as Wednesday morning, and continuing through the day into Wednesday night. There are timing and placement differences between the available guidance with the GFS being a daytime evening, while the ECMWF and Canadian are a late day and evening-overnight event, so the details are still uncertain. But, as of now, it looks like this would be a rain/snow event, and not much in the way of sleet or freezing rain. As always, the track will determine the p-types. But it looks like much of the area could see some snow at some point during the event, with an accumulating snow possible for some areas. Specific details this far out are impossible to pin point. The main points are precipitation is looking more certain for the entire forecast area now, and that an accumulating snowfall is becoming more likely for portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Actual P-types will be dependent on the track of the low and thermal profiles.

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59 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A more amplified Monday wave would suppress ridging along the east coast some. Maybe that helps get a cleaner transfer sooner. Or maybe more amplified runs are just more amplified across the board lol 

Fwiw (and probably not a whole heck of alot) the 18z NAM is 3 mb deeper with the Monday low than 12z. Stronger Monday should be good for Wed. Dont want to see Monday shear out and weaken....thats our 50/50

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