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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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[mention=514]Ji[/mention] There is your threat around New Years on the GFS from that block...gets squashed this run.  Details don't work out.  A system crashes into the west coast and flattens the flow which doesn't allow things to amplify...but that is a detail that will change at that lead.  But you can see with that block nothing is going to cut in that time period.  Just need to get a healthy system to amplify during the window it creates.  

Yep lots of chances. I'm sure we won't stay dry for the next 14 days but I still like seeing them on the models. Then at some point we get our heather A before we go into la nina se ridge hell

 

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Just now, Ji said:
7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
[mention=514]Ji[/mention] There is your threat around New Years on the GFS from that block...gets squashed this run.  Details don't work out.  A system crashes into the west coast and flattens the flow which doesn't allow things to amplify...but that is a detail that will change at that lead.  But you can see with that block nothing is going to cut in that time period.  Just need to get a healthy system to amplify during the window it creates.  

Yep lots of chances. I'm sure we won't stay dry for the next 14 days but I still like seeing them on the models. Then at some point we get out heather A before we go into la nina se ridge hell

Or, and here me out, we get our Heather A but the pattern then reloads and we repeat that through March 15...

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[mention=514]Ji[/mention] There is your threat around New Years on the GFS from that block...gets squashed this run.  Details don't work out.  A system crashes into the west coast and flattens the flow which doesn't allow things to amplify...but that is a detail that will change at that lead.  But you can see with that block nothing is going to cut in that time period.  Just need to get a healthy system to amplify during the window it creates.  
Still no cold
3b61ff55d4437aecfb047648ec15b493.jpg
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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Yep lots of chances. I'm sure we won't stay dry for the next 14 days but I still like seeing them on the models. Then at some point we get our heather A before we go into la nina se ridge hell

 

I don't know... when we have pacific driven cold Decembers in a nina they tend to fade into a crappy January/February look.  When the AO is this negative it tends to linger and reload through winter.  That doesn't mean we are headed for 1996 or 2010...sometimes we still struggle in a Nina with a -AO to get EPIC results...it just skews us towards a more normal snowfall year v a dreg year...but that is assuming the STJ goes dormant.  If that stays active...then who knows.  

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Just now, dailylurker said:

Sounds like my girlfriend. What's it mean? White Christmas or 75 degrees?

06z GFS is a White Christmas with highs in the 20s for most... teens in the mountains.  06z GFS would suggest rain Christmas Eve changing to heavy wet snow... ending Christmas morning.  4-8" of snow.  A Christmas miracle indeed

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

06z GFS is a White Christmas with highs in the 20s for most... teens in the mountains.  06z GFS would suggest rain Christmas Eve changing to heavy wet snow... ending Christmas morning.  4-8" of snow.  A Christmas miracle indeed

Best post I've seen in a while. Almost sexy lol

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6 hours ago, Ji said:
6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:
GFS really isn't far from something Monday...its got a kicker right on its tail...need that to either back off or dig more and amplify the trough.

Ggem does it but no cold again

With a persistent vortex in/near the WPO domain, and a strong Asian-Pacific jet, it wont be easy to get super cold air in our source region. We probably need the AO to be significantly negative to mitigate that somewhat, and allow TPV lobes to break off and come south.

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