psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Active pattern...lots of chances...all too far out to know anything about details. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 [mention=514]Ji[/mention] There is your threat around New Years on the GFS from that block...gets squashed this run. Details don't work out. A system crashes into the west coast and flattens the flow which doesn't allow things to amplify...but that is a detail that will change at that lead. But you can see with that block nothing is going to cut in that time period. Just need to get a healthy system to amplify during the window it creates. Yep lots of chances. I'm sure we won't stay dry for the next 14 days but I still like seeing them on the models. Then at some point we get our heather A before we go into la nina se ridge hell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: [mention=514]Ji[/mention] There is your threat around New Years on the GFS from that block...gets squashed this run. Details don't work out. A system crashes into the west coast and flattens the flow which doesn't allow things to amplify...but that is a detail that will change at that lead. But you can see with that block nothing is going to cut in that time period. Just need to get a healthy system to amplify during the window it creates. Yep lots of chances. I'm sure we won't stay dry for the next 14 days but I still like seeing them on the models. Then at some point we get out heather A before we go into la nina se ridge hell Or, and here me out, we get our Heather A but the pattern then reloads and we repeat that through March 15... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 [mention=514]Ji[/mention] There is your threat around New Years on the GFS from that block...gets squashed this run. Details don't work out. A system crashes into the west coast and flattens the flow which doesn't allow things to amplify...but that is a detail that will change at that lead. But you can see with that block nothing is going to cut in that time period. Just need to get a healthy system to amplify during the window it creates. Still no cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Yep lots of chances. I'm sure we won't stay dry for the next 14 days but I still like seeing them on the models. Then at some point we get our heather A before we go into la nina se ridge hell I don't know... when we have pacific driven cold Decembers in a nina they tend to fade into a crappy January/February look. When the AO is this negative it tends to linger and reload through winter. That doesn't mean we are headed for 1996 or 2010...sometimes we still struggle in a Nina with a -AO to get EPIC results...it just skews us towards a more normal snowfall year v a dreg year...but that is assuming the STJ goes dormant. If that stays active...then who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Still no cold There is a shot around Xmas and then after New Years a big dump coming...it finds a way to miss us again with a Miller B first lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 @Ji when we get into January if we keep this pattern I think the cold problem wont be as big an issue as right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 @CAPE this what you want? 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 So about the 06z GFS... within 7 days 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: @CAPE this what you want? Now that is a legit west based block in the ideal spot for the MA.. Too bad it's a GFS op run and will never materialize. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 I wouldn't mind the 06z GFS evolution this morning... cold front comes through and a trailing wave develops and runs up the cold front... nice track for us but not for NYC/SNE lol 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 504DM thickness comes to visit for Christmas Day into Boxing Day... highs in the 20s for Christmas Day for just about everyone in the LWX CWA 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 504DM thickness comes to visit for Christmas Day into Boxing Day Sounds like my girlfriend. What's it mean? White Christmas or 75 degrees? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, dailylurker said: Sounds like my girlfriend. What's it mean? White Christmas or 75 degrees? 06z GFS is a White Christmas with highs in the 20s for most... teens in the mountains. 06z GFS would suggest rain Christmas Eve changing to heavy wet snow... ending Christmas morning. 4-8" of snow. A Christmas miracle indeed 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 06z GFS is a White Christmas with highs in the 20s for most... teens in the mountains. 06z GFS would suggest rain Christmas Eve changing to heavy wet snow... ending Christmas morning. 4-8" of snow. A Christmas miracle indeed Best post I've seen in a while. Almost sexy lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 Clouded the future is... but 06z GFS... strong in the Force it is 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Few runs in a row now with that block forming right after Christmas. This is how we snow. We take! Hopefully it’s legit...so far this winter blocks have come to fruition so we’ll see. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, yoda said: Clouded the future is... but 06z GFS... strong in the Force it is Could you imagine if that verifies for S NY? 2 feet on top of what they’d have? Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 06z GFS also says we enjoy single digits for lows Christmas night into Boxing Day... near 0 out west in the mountains... 10-15 in the cities Windchills also 0 to -10 for most... -10 to -15 out west in the mountains... near 0 in the cities 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 6 hours ago, Ji said: 6 hours ago, psuhoffman said: GFS really isn't far from something Monday...its got a kicker right on its tail...need that to either back off or dig more and amplify the trough. Ggem does it but no cold again With a persistent vortex in/near the WPO domain, and a strong Asian-Pacific jet, it wont be easy to get super cold air in our source region. We probably need the AO to be significantly negative to mitigate that somewhat, and allow TPV lobes to break off and come south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 20 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Sounds like my girlfriend. What's it mean? White Christmas or 75 degrees? Both 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 6Z WB GEFS through Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 p16 is right where we want it. North trend needs to be down there for me to have a shot. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 06z GFS is active AF after Christmas. Looks like many opportunities between Christmas and New Years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 7 hours ago, Ji said: 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Oddly the anafront snow idea on xmas eve is on the GFS and CMC. I'm sure it will work out I will be today years old when we get snow out of an anafront. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I will be today years old when we get snow out of an anafront. November 2018... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: November 2018... I don't remember that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: November 2018... Pretty sure we did it last year on 12/11/19 too, unless I'm interpreting my brief notes on that one incorrectly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 12/11/19 was the last time i saw snow i believe. Also, the SOI is strongly positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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