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Rtd208

November 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Big time storm signal in the east to start December. 

3137E8E8-B014-43CB-B6E0-A7803A9C5328.png

Likely a cutter of course but could be a significant storm that ushers in a decent cold mass early December. 

Not sure if +PNA is transient. Also noticed AO looking more neutral/negative in the forecast today. 

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Likely a cutter of course but could be a significant storm that ushers in a decent cold mass early December. 

Not sure if +PNA is transient. Also noticed AO looking more neutral/negative in the forecast today. 

I agree. But it should come with a decent cold shot afterwards. The majority of the ensemble guidance keeps the +pna for the first half of December. 
 

With that look probably favor a Great Lakes snowstorm around the 30th-1st

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s true. But it may be the best chance we have to shake up this cutter, hugger, suppressed southern stream storm track.

We are a h5 look away from a ideal storm track. It’s all about capitalizing on are chances. We haven’t had a good setup in the last two years. We don’t need a strong niño to get a snowstorm again 

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1 hour ago, KEITH L.I said:

Remember that..and two days later we had snow showers Christmas eve

I hope this year ends on a good note and we see snow for Christmas...the La ninas have seen some happy endings...it hasn't snowed except for a flurry or two on Christmas eve night since 1993's very light snow...the last good storm in that timeframe was way back in 1966...

1961...weak negative...

1962...weak negative...

1963...el nino...

1966...weak negative...

1969...el nino...

1970...la nina...

1975...la nina...

1980...weak negative...

1983...la nina...

1993...weak - to weak +

1995...la nina...

1998...la nina...

2002...el nino...

 

 

 

 

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Tonight into tomorrow, a cold front associated with a storm that brought snow from Detroit to Toronto will move across the region with showers and periods of rain. Tomorrow will be mild, but cooler weather is likely Tuesday and Wednesday before readings warm again.

From late tomorrow into Thursday, a storm will move from the Plains States toward the Great Lakes Region and into Canada. The storm could bring a significant rainfall to the Central Plains States into the eastern Great Lakes Region. North and west of the storm track, including southern Minnesota, southern Wisconsin, Michigan's Upper Peninsula, and parts of Ontario (excluding the greater Toronto area), a moderate to significant snowfall is possible. In the East, a mild Thanksgiving Day holiday looks likely.

December could see above to perhaps much above normal temperatures redevelop during the first week of the month after starting off on a cool note.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.44°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter.

The SOI was -7.51.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.797.

On November 21 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.351 (RMM). The November 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.393.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the end of November. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex, which is favored on the long-range guidance, could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 10/11 (91%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is very likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region.

The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.5°.

The implied probability for a November mean temperature of 50.0° in Central Park is now approximately 90%. Since 1869, there have been 19 cases where November had a mean temperature of 50.0° or above. 14/19 (74%) went on to have a warmer than normal December, including 9/19 (47%) with a December mean temperature of 40.0° or above (2.5° or more above normal). The winter mean temperature for those 14 cases was 37.5° (2.2° above normal). The winter mean temperature for the subset of December cases with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above was 38.9° (3.6° above normal) and four of those cases wound up having an average winter temperature of 40.0° or above.

 

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The last 8 days of November are averaging 50degs.[45/55].         Making it 45degs, or +2.0.

Month to date is 53.3[+4.2].          November should end at 51.1[+3.6].

59*(99%RH) here at 6am, Rain, Fog.      57*(90%RH) by 8am.        52*(55%RH) by 11am.       49* by 1pm.     44* by 8pm.

GFS has 4" of SNOW on Dec.4/5!

CMC has 4" of Rain on 11/30---12/01.

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Just now, wdrag said:

Good morning, 

No topic yet but 5 successive cycles of the EC indicates the potential for a period of 45-55MPH gusts Nov 30 or early Dec 1 entire NYC forum. Something is coming in that two day period... sizable trough and small chance of a northern-southern stream phaser. 

Yeah, big PNA rise in the west should produce a sizable storm. Looks like we will have a block to the north for it as well. 
 

I would watch that trailing wave after the cutter for some potential winter weather around the 4/5th

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Our unusually active late convection season continues this morning.

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Special Marine Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
645 AM EST Mon Nov 23 2020

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Special Marine Warning for...

  Moriches Inlet to Montauk Point NY out 40 NM...
  Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT / Port Jefferson NY...
  Peconic and Gardiners Bays...

* Until 730 AM EST.

* At 644 AM EST, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from New London Harbor to 14 nm southwest of Buoy 44017,
  moving northeast at 45 knots.

  HAZARD...Wind gusts 34 knots or greater and small hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and
           suddenly higher waves.

* Locations impacted include...
  Watch Hill, Gardiners Island, Orient Point, Fishers Island Sound,
  Buoy 44017, Shelter Island Sound, Gardiners Bay, The Race, New
  London Harbor and Shelter Island.

 

 

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Morning thoughts...

A cold front is moving through the area right now. Clouds will break and the sun will return later this morning or during the early afternoon on Long Island. The temperature will gradually fall from the middle 50s at 8 am into the 40s during the afternoon.

Tomorrow will be sunny but cool.

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

 

Reaction to JB ran the gamut from like to weeny. Perhaps the Chopin/Carroll/McCarthy song published in 1917, “I’m Always Chasing Rainbows”  sadly sums it up. As always .....

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20 minutes ago, rclab said:

Reaction to JB ran the gamut from like to weeny. Perhaps the Chopin/Carroll/McCarthy song published in 1917, “I’m Always Chasing Rainbows”  sadly sums it up. As always .....

JB always gives hope to the weenies.  He does say that he expects a mild winter overall in the east...

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Mild week coming up with the potential for our first Thanksgiving 60° since 2015.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/Thanksgivingwx.pdf

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/23/2020  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 MON  23| TUE 24| WED 25| THU 26| FRI 27| SAT 28| SUN 29| MON 30 CLIMO
 X/N  56| 38  49| 39  55| 50  61| 52  60| 51  61| 46  54| 44  51 35 48

 

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5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, big PNA rise in the west should produce a sizable storm. Looks like we will have a block to the north for it as well. 
 

I would watch that trailing wave after the cutter for some potential winter weather around the 4/5th

I see it in 12z/23 CMC.  

No question phasing for a big storm is complicated (not a high prob) and if comes in pieces, how it all transpires makes a sig difference in ptype outcomes this time of year. Monitoring. If this potential continues another two days, may start a 48-72 hr topic on wet wind event, followed by ptype-accumulative western-northwestern suburbs snow.  Sooooo. early right now and prefer not give this second storm idea much credence, yet.  Another post somewhere in NYC forum a day or 3 ago had also mentioned the colder more interesting look to DEC around here.  In the end, we've got to keep in mind stats-climo.  

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33 minutes ago, STORMANLI said:

Yeah, wow.  1.83" here seems high, but water level in pool easily up 2".

Seems about right. The PWS in our area are generally around 1.50". My fire pit is filled with water, so we had a ton

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