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November 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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The next 8 days are averaging 49degs.[43/54].          Making it 44degs.,  or just Normal.

Month to date is 53.9[+4.2].      Should be about 50.8[+2.8] by the 27th. 

The GEFS Extended is still a vast winter time weather wasteland.       We get near the current lows again only near the 29th., 07th, and 17th.    It runs into the start of winter.      Absolutely no Snow for this 30 Day+ period either, not a T showing.     Would make 338 days w/o measurable snow, if correct.

32*(53%RH) here at 6am[low was 31* at 12:30am].      35* by 8am.       37* by 9am.      40* by 11am.         41* by Noon.       43* at 1pm.        46* at 2pm.          48* at 3pm.        46* by 9pm.

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Morning thoughts...

Overnight low temperatures included: Boston: 22°; Bridgeport: 25°; Danbury: 18°: Islip: 22°; New York City: 30°; Newark: 26°; Philadelphia: 30°; Poughkeepsie: 18°; Westhampton: 15°; and, White Plains: 22°

After a very cold start, sunshine will send temperatures rebounding. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 46°

Newark: 48°

Philadelphia: 49°

The week should end with above normal temperatures.

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9 hours ago, qg_omega said:

I didn’t see any forecast with a 36 degree high for NYC today, very impressive

The cold was impressive. The high wasn’t far off the daily record low minimum temperature, but now the cold air is departing rapidly.

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This has to be the best radiational cooling that we have seen in such a warm November. ISP just tied the record low for 2 consecutive days. Notice how much higher the max departure than the min. ISP had 3 consecutive daily record highs earlier this month.

Max...+5.1

Min...+1.6

Avg...+3.3

 

11/18 24 in 2020 24 in 2014 25 in 2017+
11/19 22 in 2020 22 in 2014 23 in 1997


 

11/7 74 in 2020 67 in 1975 67 in 1971
11/8 76 in 2020 70 in 2011 68 in 1975
11/9 74 in 2020 73 in 1975 71 in 1994

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23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has to be the best radiational cooling that we have seen in such a warm November. ISP just tied the record low for 2 consecutive days. Notice how much higher the max departure than the min. ISP had 3 consecutive daily record highs earlier this month.

Max...+5.1

Min...+1.6

Avg...+3.3

 

11/18 24 in 2020 24 in 2014 25 in 2017+
11/19 22 in 2020 22 in 2014 23 in 1997


 

11/7 74 in 2020 67 in 1975 67 in 1971
11/8 76 in 2020 70 in 2011 68 in 1975
11/9 74 in 2020 73 in 1975 71 in 1994

The air must be very dry. 

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

The air must be very dry. 

Yeah, drier air and light winds on the mornings with the best radiational cooling. Even when we had the record highs earlier in the month, the diurnal temperature range was close to the high desert of Nevada in September. We had several days with light winds, high pressure, lower dew points, and low air quality. This is what happens with the record 500mb ridging this month over the area. Also notice how strong the polar vortex has been in the Arctic.

81A0D274-CC1C-4901-9924-427839338076.gif.2e109df58fe188866ffa536c6e071922.gif

 

 

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Near record 30 hr November temperature jump coming for Friday. Places that were in the low 20s this morning will be near 60° Friday afternoon. So a 35 to 40° temperature rise.

 

KISP   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/19/2020  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25| THU 26|FRI CLIMO
 N/X  39  59| 45  61| 39  54| 50  58| 34  46| 35  58| 47  57| 41 34 50

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&hours=30&month=nov&dir=warm&dpi=100&_fmt=png


94CCAA4B-C202-4E43-87D7-EB65C92BCCD2.png.f21790f226d022c3dd60f4ec275fe2ff.png

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