michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 30 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Well that's part of the equation, the not having cold air deal, which is certainly the case now, has good ens support in finally changing for the better. The 12z EPS seemed to trend stronger in spiking ridging to and north of AK next week and the GEFS has been favoring that consistently, so that should get cross polar flow going in concert with continued Arctic and Atlantic domain blocking, along with -PNA keeping a steady stream of shortwaves coming ashore. There's nothing like the black hole AK vortex +++EPO from 2011-12 in the offing and since the ensembles haven't trended away from a colder and active look as the period has gotten closer, not inclined to punt now. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Good points. It's pretty much unanimous that colder air is on the way. Add in the fact that talk of this cold/pattern change happened before models even showed it, then of course once models started showing it they rushed it as always, and you have some just saying over and over it's always 10 days away, it's never going to happen, and things like that. When there's not cold air it can still snow. We had average snowfall in Detroit in December with above average snowfall in Cleveland, all pretty much with no "cold" air to be had. The coldest days we had seemed to be products of the fresh snow that just fell. The flip side of this is when there is cold there is no guarantee of some big snow fest. However it certainly increases the chances for snow activity in the Great Lakes region and with or without a big storm we can at least have a period of actual "deep Winter" . As for skeptics of the actual cold coming? The extent of cold that we will see here is unknown, but when you are seeing unanimous support for colder than average anomalies in the dead of Winter, I think it's a safe bet the pattern is changing. Biggest place to look is western Canada. They are going from extreme warm anomalies to extreme cold anomalies in the coming change. If this somehow does not materialize you might as well just disable all weather models and start sticking your fingers out the window to see which way the wind is blowing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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