michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 30 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Well that's part of the equation, the not having cold air deal, which is certainly the case now, has good ens support in finally changing for the better. The 12z EPS seemed to trend stronger in spiking ridging to and north of AK next week and the GEFS has been favoring that consistently, so that should get cross polar flow going in concert with continued Arctic and Atlantic domain blocking, along with -PNA keeping a steady stream of shortwaves coming ashore. There's nothing like the black hole AK vortex +++EPO from 2011-12 in the offing and since the ensembles haven't trended away from a colder and active look as the period has gotten closer, not inclined to punt now. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Good points. It's pretty much unanimous that colder air is on the way. Add in the fact that talk of this cold/pattern change happened before models even showed it, then of course once models started showing it they rushed it as always, and you have some just saying over and over it's always 10 days away, it's never going to happen, and things like that. When there's not cold air it can still snow. We had average snowfall in Detroit in December with above average snowfall in Cleveland, all pretty much with no "cold" air to be had. The coldest days we had seemed to be products of the fresh snow that just fell. The flip side of this is when there is cold there is no guarantee of some big snow fest. However it certainly increases the chances for snow activity in the Great Lakes region and with or without a big storm we can at least have a period of actual "deep Winter" . As for skeptics of the actual cold coming? The extent of cold that we will see here is unknown, but when you are seeing unanimous support for colder than average anomalies in the dead of Winter, I think it's a safe bet the pattern is changing. Biggest place to look is western Canada. They are going from extreme warm anomalies to extreme cold anomalies in the coming change. If this somehow does not materialize you might as well just disable all weather models and start sticking your fingers out the window to see which way the wind is blowing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 32 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Good points. It's pretty much unanimous that colder air is on the way. Add in the fact that talk of this cold/pattern change happened before models even showed it, then of course once models started showing it they rushed it as always, and you have some just saying over and over it's always 10 days away, it's never going to happen, and things like that. When there's not cold air it can still snow. We had average snowfall in Detroit in December with above average snowfall in Cleveland, all pretty much with no "cold" air to be had. The coldest days we had seemed to be products of the fresh snow that just fell. The flip side of this is when there is cold there is no guarantee of some big snow fest. However it certainly increases the chances for snow activity in the Great Lakes region and with or without a big storm we can at least have a period of actual "deep Winter" . As for skeptics of the actual cold coming? The extent of cold that we will see here is unknown, but when you are seeing unanimous support for colder than average anomalies in the dead of Winter, I think it's a safe bet the pattern is changing. Biggest place to look is western Canada. They are going from extreme warm anomalies to extreme cold anomalies in the coming change. If this somehow does not materialize you might as well just disable all weather models and start sticking your fingers out the window to see which way the wind is blowing. Short version of that....Colder, but average cold is coming. The lack of strong, organized, cross country low pressure systems with deformation band snow this winter is surprising. Running out of winter days to cash in. No legit threats on the horizon. Better likelihood of an earthquake. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 52 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I have not looked at forecasts but I have heard of the record cold going on in Russia It’s less so western Russia and more so north central. Arkhangelsk, for example. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 4 hours ago, Stebo said: It snowed here most of the day, with no accumulation, in January. Some times just gotta call a shit winter for what it is, shit. 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: Well that's part of the equation, the not having cold air deal, which is certainly the case now, has good ens support in finally changing for the better. The 12z EPS seemed to trend stronger in spiking ridging to and north of AK next week and the GEFS has been favoring that consistently, so that should get cross polar flow going in concert with continued Arctic and Atlantic domain blocking, along with -PNA keeping a steady stream of shortwaves coming ashore. There's nothing like the black hole AK vortex +++EPO from 2011-12 in the offing and since the ensembles haven't trended away from a colder and active look as the period has gotten closer, not inclined to punt now. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Idk? Kinda been dreaming about an 11-12 winter lately. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: I have not looked at forecasts but I have heard of the record cold going on in Russia Madrid had a morning low of 9 2 days ago 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 00z GFS: 00z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 14 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Idk? Kinda been dreaming about an 11-12 winter lately. What was funny about the much maligned Winter of 2011-12, is had it not been for Morch I think it would have just blended in as run of the mill mild Winter and not everyone's least favorite Winter in their memory lol. We actually had 2 snowfalls, January 20th & February 11th, where we got several inches of snow with temperatures in the mid teens. Legit deep Winter conditions. The problem is you would think we were Denver because it vanished 3 days later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Good to see our Alabama friends getting in on the action. Going to be important having Spartman around in hurricane season so the southeastern parts of the Great Lakes sub forum (I.e. Savannah and Charleston metros) are well included. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2021 Author Share Posted January 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: Good to see our Alabama friends getting in on the action. Going to be important having Spartman around in hurricane season so the southeastern parts of the Great Lakes sub forum (I.e. Savannah and Charleston metros) are well included. Are you saying you like this view better? Let's hope the map pans out as well. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Are you saying you like this view better? Let's hope the map pans out as well. I don't get too hung up on the storm itself, but this is a good example of the potential of the pattern with a bowling ball system spreading the wealth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Euro and Canadian for the same period. Around the 25th is what the models are focusing on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 That’s the most snow I’ve seen on a 10 day map in a year I think 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 I'm almost taken aback by this amount of consensus. If this storm doesn't pan out (insofar that it at least snows a lot somewhere nearby), then it's gonna be really hard for me to not be weenie-depressed afterwards. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Are you saying you like this view better? YES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 29 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I'm almost taken aback by this amount of consensus. If this storm doesn't pan out (insofar that it at least snows a lot somewhere nearby), then it's gonna be really hard for me to not be weenie-depressed afterwards. Yeah all that is in the 200hr+ timeframe. May need a thread if it still shows a system inside 100 hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 28 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: amount of consensus???????????? only this board lol The storm is on alot of the models so there is some agreement. Will it change on the next set of runs, probably. I think you need some marijuana or xanax in your life, or both. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Models will have "storms" sprayed throughout a run on and off. The 500mb pattern is pretty much vastly different for all 3 models that go out that far. Pretty typical as well. Saying "consensus" is bs.there is a general agreement for potential in/around that time period.. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Pattern to date, mby: CAD-->WAW-->DTD-->MELT-->REPEAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 00z GFS: 00z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Geez, they just don’t get the hint 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Spartman said: . Dude, just post the regional view for the entire area instead of the south, no one cares. I mean if you are going to constantly post models at least do it for the entire area. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Dude, just post the regional view for the entire area instead of the south, no one cares. I mean if you are going to constantly post models at least do it for the entire area..Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 imo, ban 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 its the model posting version of angry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 imo, bansecond.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2021 Author Share Posted January 17, 2021 Not gonna worry about it but the extended looks more cuttery or flirting with cuttery than I'd like to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Not gonna worry about it but the extended looks more cuttery or flirting with cuttery than I'd like to see. Amazing, right? High-lat blocking is going to prevent cutters....blah blah blah. I need to get off this site and all other weather-related sites for a while for my mental health. Won't happen, but it should. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 I keep hearing from many reputable Meteorologists that this is an extremely complicated pattern. It reminds me of a theory I learned back in college called the Chaos Theory! As it relates to Weather, there are just so many variables, especially in this pattern, that make it almost impossible to forecast for than a couple days out. It obviously is leading to many frustrations, and rightfully so. Hang in there everyone! Hopefully mother nature shows her hand soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 The timing of the sw CONUS energy ejection will matter quite a bit. Last night's 00z Euro, on Jan 24th, had the energy already over the central plains. This morning's run has it off the coast of SoCal at the same time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 I’ll pick up what the euro is putting down if no one else will 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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