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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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If the Pac stays as it is, then hopefully it does abandon us. Make NE Illinois like the surface of the sun for all I care.
Except it likely isn't going to stay like it's been. The +EPO/+WPO looks like it's going to go opposite phase for a time and then eventually could go to a neutral or weakly +EPO and still solidly -WPO.

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11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Except it likely isn't going to stay like it's been. The +EPO/+WPO looks like it's going to go opposite phase for a time and then eventually could go to a neutral or weakly +EPO and still solidly -WPO.

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Oh yes, I know. It's just that in the world of imperfect information, where our expectations may defy us, where Midland, Texas gets double the snow of LOT, IF the Pac were to remain unchanged, than may the -NAO be no more. 

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2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Gotta be careful just looking at the temperature anomalies on those weeklies. The mean 500 mb pattern and anomalies suggests that the western ridge will continue to retrograde to more of a Aleutian ridge common in La Nina but we should keep NAO blocking if the effects of the SSW make it to North America.

A good poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO) continues to provide cold air delivery into the northern CONUS, as opposed to a strong lobe of the polar vortex over the entire AK domain (like 2012) which torched the CONUS all winter. While a -WPO/-PNA pattern does introduce a warmer risk by themselves as southeast ridge is allowed to flex more, having the AO/NAO stay negative is key and could keep a wintrier pattern going instead of warmer cutters that only benefit MSP and points north/northwest.

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Another interesting thing i notice about anomalies in ensembles and weeklies is that 850mb temps are colder relative to avg than 2m temps. Maybe a sign that lower diurnal ranges (& hopefully unsettled weather) will continue as it turns colder?

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Another interesting thing i notice about anomalies in ensembles and weeklies is that 850mb temps are colder relative to avg than 2m temps. Maybe a sign that lower diurnal ranges (& hopefully unsettled weather) will continue as it turns colder?

What I’ve noticed is that 2M temps on the models in the long range in the cold season are generally way too warm during cold patterns for whatever reason. They seem to do better with 850 temps. 

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Another interesting thing i notice about anomalies in ensembles and weeklies is that 850mb temps are colder relative to avg than 2m temps. Maybe a sign that lower diurnal ranges (& hopefully unsettled weather) will continue as it turns colder?

The key is getting extensive snow cover down across the region, that can help modulate a pattern with some milder risk. Re. your question, it's possible to be related to a smaller diurnal range. The 850 mb anomalies are probably more relevant, especially if we can get solid snow cover down. And those anomalies even in the milder stretch shown in first half of Feb are not that far above normal, so you can easily still snow in that, as[mention=55]Stebo[/mention] mentioned above.  

 

 

I tend to look at the 500 mb pattern before then 850 mb temperature anomalies and don't usually look at the 2m because if I'm not mistaken those are a lower skilled parameter in weekly and seasonal forecasts.

 

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The key is getting extensive snow cover down across the region, that can help modulate a pattern with some milder risk. Re. your question, it's possible to be related to a smaller diurnal range. The 850 mb anomalies are probably more relevant, especially if we can get solid snow cover down. And those anomalies even in the milder stretch shown in first half of Feb are not that far above normal, so you can easily still snow in that, as@Stebo mentioned above.

 

I tend to look at the 500 mb pattern before then 850 mb temperature anomalies and don't usually look at the 2m because if I'm not mistaken those are a lower skilled parameter in weekly and seasonal forecasts.

 

 

 

I have always done the 500 250 850 surface style of model diagnostics as well, especially as you go longer in range.

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2 hours ago, mimillman said:

I think we can all agree...at least we have things to track. What a stinker of stretch the past month has been.

13 days. large part of LOT under a WWA on New Years Day. And truth be, the mid range forecast of a 2 week stretch of dullsville was spot on.

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