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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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I know everyone loves to piss and moan, because I'm right there with you guys, but we all know damn well that there's absolutely no telling what could happen with this storm. I wouldn't be surprised if the track shifts a thousand miles either way. Remember, the first storm in Ohio this season was originally forecast to be a two-footer for North Dakota. Just sayin. 

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23 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

Central indiana and central Illinois have been the ultimate screw zone of the forum. Dont get why u guys in Chicago r mad lol

Well it doesn't *really* matter but just to set the record straight...

Indianapolis did record above its seasonal snowfall avg last winter while Chicago recorded below. And that was for ORD.

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While I don't necessarily share the level of optimism that Snowstorms does (I do believe there is a path for it to cut pretty hard unless the low off the east coast backs up more), it is conceivable to see southward adjustments in the track.  Looks like a good storm for somebody with significant front end thump potential as a consolation prize.

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39 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

Central indiana and central Illinois have been the ultimate screw zone of the forum. Dont get why u guys in Chicago r mad lol

Outside of lake effect zones, there is practically nobody in this sub with a bigger snowfall deficit (as % of average) than Chicago right now.  If you are talking about the last 10 years, then yeah, different story.

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1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

I know everyone loves to piss and moan, because I'm right there with you guys, but we all know damn well that there's absolutely no telling what could happen with this storm. I wouldn't be surprised if the track shifts a thousand miles either way. Remember, the first storm in Ohio this season was originally forecast to be a two-footer for North Dakota. Just sayin. 

The voice of reason!

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1 hour ago, zinski1990 said:

Central indiana and central Illinois have been the ultimate screw zone of the forum. Dont get why u guys in Chicago r mad lol

THIS. Lol. I like the active pattern with powerhouse storms but definitely would like to see the storm track shunted more south and east. Cold rain is no beuno

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9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Nice to have a real 1'+  event on the table at least, definitely rather be 100 miles nw tho

As depicted the GFS front end thump band won't produce the results its showing in LOT. Will need deformation band to swing through and stay all snow to get anything over a few inches.

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3 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

I know everyone loves to piss and moan, because I'm right there with you guys, but we all know damn well that there's absolutely no telling what could happen with this storm. I wouldn't be surprised if the track shifts a thousand miles either way. Remember, the first storm in Ohio this season was originally forecast to be a two-footer for North Dakota. Just sayin. 

I don’t really understand it either. Snowstorms are cool, but overall winter is not. 60° is way better believe me

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19 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

As depicted the GFS front end thump band won't produce the results its showing in LOT. Will need deformation band to swing through and stay all snow to get anything over a few inches.

You are acting like WAA tends to be underestimated or something.  :P

The antecedent airmass is no New Year's 1999 unfortunately, but it does look like it will be a player.

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2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Nice to have a real 1'+  event on the table at least, definitely rather be 100 miles nw tho

Fun to have the operational Euro and upgraded Euro laying down >2' imby, imagine those totals will end up closer to Norfolk if they happen at all

 

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

New Euro follows seasonal trends.  Iowa/Minnesota cash in while IL/IN twiddles their thumbs awaiting the next system.

 

,j,.jpg

While talking about tonight's 00z Euro run, though the rest of December is done:
sn10_acc.us_ov.png

 

In the meantime, the AO is supposed to go near neutral for a brief period before tanking again in a matter of days from now while the NAO goes slightly positive days from now before it tanks again.
ao.sprd2.gif

nao.sprd2.gifpna.sprd2.gif

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5 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This negative nao/ao is legit. If this keeps up its only a matter of time before Indiana and Illinois cash in

Been a -AO during most of this Decembers suck fest.  Not sure tanking -NAO is great for anything but clippers and  watching storms for the lower OV and Noreasters. Could be good for downstate IL and Indiana though.

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