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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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11 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

This may sound stupid... even with the AO and NAO being sharply negative?

Even though the AO is negative (part of reason it will get cold behind the system next week), the blocking overall anywhere in not strong. The PNA is one of the stronger driving forces right now, in a very fast moving pattern.

The NAO has been neutral, and what happens in the future is sort of unclear.

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Those coarse resolution CFS maps don't make any sense. Even if you account for background climate signals, there's no mid and upper pattern configuration that would torch the entire continent. If Alaska is torching that extreme, then there's gonna be a trough over at least the eastern half of North America. If a good chunk of the CONUS is torching, Alaska will be cold due to ++EPO from the TPV parking nearby, like in 2011-12.

 

 

 

 

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IDK, I'm not trying to be overly optimistic, but I don't think the most recent Euro weeklies and GEFS extended (I don't really look at the CFS and it's probably getting discontinued anyway at some point) look terrible for January. It appears the EPO will average positive but it doesn't look to be due to a black hole over Alaska but northeastern Pacific and northwestern North America troughing that's pretty common in La Nina's. The -NAO signal is still there to mute heights some in the east.

 

If there's enough dateline ridging (-WPO) and a huge vortex doesn't set up over AK, that typically provides good cold air discharge that can bleed from western and central Canada into the northern Plains and northern Lakes. I see there being opportunities and probably averaging near to above normal temps but potential for some decent cold shots assuming cold does build into the Plains. Don't get me wrong, it's not screaming great pattern or anything, but it looks more serviceable than the dumpster fire that has been December, except for a few lucky spots.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Those coarse resolution CFS maps don't make any sense. Even if you account for background climate signals, there's no mid and upper pattern configuration that would torch the entire continent. If Alaska is torching that extreme, then there's gonna be a trough over at least the eastern half of North America. If a good chunk of the CONUS is torching, Alaska will be cold due to ++EPO from the TPV parking nearby, like in 2011-12.

 

 

 

 

I agree it's a strange look.  The only thing I could come up with is maybe some of the warm departures could be from lack of snowcover?  The current snowcover situation is pretty pitiful in the northern tier and even up into parts of Canada.  The problem with that theory though is that the CFS has January wetter than average in much of Canada.  If that is correct, then they will be building up snow.  As you know, getting precip is way more important than temperature departures for snow at those latitudes.

Would point out that overall the coarse CFS looks on track to do a pretty darn good job with December.  But you really want to get it to the last few days of the month for the higher predictive value, and right now it's only December 20.

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202012.thumb.gif.ae1f52e8d29b6d22cbb40e88c0a02628.gif

 

MonthTDeptUS.thumb.png.a8b4817bbebd652b068c605a2567cb0b.png

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13 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

The EPO is toast this winter. Its clearly a -AO winter which suggests no ssw either. As the season expands on, colder, more snowier pattern should descend over the plains, building snowpack. As the season progresses, troughs should become deeper and more amplified due to the blocking getting more traction with the 500mb pattern. Lets just say the pre-Christmas front is the beginning of this process.

Interesting tension there as I was of the understanding that -AO is favorable for snow/cold in the central and eastern CONUS...but so is SSW.

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2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

There is solid potential for the end of this year

I think whatever there is of a storm track this year favors lower and mid OV and points east with little SER in this El Nino look. Eastern parts of subforum and EC and interior NE look to cash in most as they strengthen when they hit the Atlantic 

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4 minutes ago, Baum said:

 MEDIUM-LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALSO   
POINTING TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN POTENTIALLY   
CONTINUING BEYOND DAY 7.   
  
CASTRO 

I think Castro means starting beyond day 7 not continuing. It was spitting rain/snow last evening and had to remind myself that was actual precip falling from the sky

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3 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

I think Castro means starting beyond day 7 not continuing.

actually hints at a small potential this weekend FWIW. And I'm guessing overall it's throwing ...t at a wall given our weather doldrums. But he does provide a speck of hope:

ATTENTION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FINAL WEEK OF 2020  
THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIAL PACIFIC BORNE SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING A  
RISK FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.  
THERE'S ACTUALLY PRETTY DECENT ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THE GENERAL  
BIG PICTURE IDEA OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE  
REGION, SO LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS APPEAR WARRANTED. GIVEN LIKELY   
MILDER STARTING POINT GOING INTO SUNDAY, COULD SEE RAIN OR A RAIN   
SNOW MIX TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT AS MUCH   
COLDER AIR ADVECTS BACK IN. STILL LOTS OF INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT   
THIS RANGE AND TIME TO SORT OUT THIS PERIOD, BUT WE'LL BE WATCHING  
CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS. MEDIUM-LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALSO   
POINTING TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN POTENTIALLY   
CONTINUING BEYOND DAY 7.   
  
CASTRO 

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30 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

:lol::lol::lol:

Screen Shot 2020-12-22 at 1.11.26 PM.png

Based on Euro performance divide totals by 5 and move track either 300 miles NW or SE.  Even if the system came together as shown the mesoscale NAM would eventually show overrunning snow cut way down and WAA winning out with mostly rain before being dry slotted in LOT on that track.

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