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October 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


uofmiami

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A question: IFFFF ASOS sees a snowflake in CP Monday or Tuesday morning, will that qualify for shortest period? ??

AM tied up with lots of at home stuff so no starter post yet, but thinking of a damaging wind-power outage 50MPH wind gust post for the forum 15z-22z Monday.  Just need more time.  Am pretty sure we'll see some of this Monday (75% certainty on my part-hasty checks are my uncertainty). 

I do think scattered coatings of snow for parts of the higher I84 terrain Monday and possibly Tuesday morning with scattered snow showers. That too at least 75% certainty. 

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1 hour ago, binbisso said:

The mjo in Phase 5 for most of October didn't have the usual outcome here in the Northeast which is usually much below-normal temperatures. We will finish solidly about normal throughout the region

It’s looks like those record warm SSTs off the West Coast and East Coast had a greater influence on our weather than the MJO. Notice how close the October pattern matched the +PMM. Those are the warmest SSTs off the West Coast that we have seen with such a strong La Niña.  It’s probably why the October pattern was so different than we would expect from a La Niña.

975F3544-BAA0-4618-8F30-5E3EA32CBAA7.gif.efd51a1368aa1cc629b41d49a6e56165.gif

9F21890D-6748-4839-9A1E-AF9CB57C3056.gif.5fc2109f3cd2a5479bec261d96c1281e.gif


B6A1B7AB-3862-4340-B1E3-0AE7638BBBE6.png.c04babfee69d67ba917ee82e0564c2f2.png

 

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@bluewave

That's very interesting about the PMM October pattern. I didn't even think to look at that for some reason. I remember we discussed that in the past. I found that particular pattern interesting when it was first showing up on ensembles. So I dug into some Nina years to look into it a little. I had some difficulty finding anything. Which I guess suggests the rarity of it. I see 1995 was brought up a few pages back. That was actually the closest match I could find. Albeit, it didn't happen until the end of the month that year. Therefore the composite for the month as a whole looks different. Interestingly, it's almost a mirror image of the PMM pattern composite you posted.

uu6KxBM.gif

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Despite abundant sunshine, much of the region saw high temperatures reach no higher than the 40s. October 2020 had a monthly mean temperature of 57.9°, which was 1.0° above normal.

Parts of New England experienced a historic October snowfall yesterday. Select seasonal snowfall totals through today are:

Albany: 1.2" (2019-2020: 49.7")
Boston: 4.3" (2019-2020: 15.8")
Caribou: 1.5" (2019-2020: 151.9")

November will commence on a cool note with the first week winding up cooler than normal. A surge of cold air could move into the region early next week. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures could develop latter part of the first week of November. The first half of the month will likely wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal and November should wind up somewhat warmer than normal overall (1° to 2° above normal).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter.

The SOI was +20.30.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.209.

On October 30 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.369 (RMM). The October 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.277.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. In response, it is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall.

 

 

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A record 11 consecutive warmer than average Octobers.

Oct.......EWR...NYC...LGA

2020...+1.5...+1.0...+1.8

2019..+3.8...+3.0 ...+2.8

2018...+0.8...+0.8...+1.7

2017...+7.2...+7.2...+7.4

2016...+2.3...+1.9....+3.1

2015...+0.6...+1.1....+0.3

2014...+2.7...+2.7....+2.2

2013...+3.0....+3.3...+2.8

2012...+2.2....+1.1....+1.9

2011...+1.5...+0.2.....+0.2

2010...+1.7...+1.2....+2.1

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