• Member Statistics

    16,098
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    shawanta003
    Newest Member
    shawanta003
    Joined
wxeyeNH

Hurricane Isaias

Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m still a little puzzled as to why it didn’t gust that hard for places like ORH into interior E MA and N RI...they were under pretty strong LLJ late afternoon and there was actually some sunshine there so you would have thought very good LL lapse rates and mixing potential. But it was basically a clunker for winds....you wouldn’t have even known a storm moved through looking at pics of my neighborhood....and it’s a susceptible area for tree damage too on a hill. There were some pockets of convective showers that produced...esp closer to the south shore, but otherwise, meh. 

But im struggling to meteorologically explain it. Maybe the LLJ just weakened a lot more than every piece of guidance had it as it moved northeast. Or maybe there was just enough extra land friction there...not sure. The latter wouldn’t explain places like BAF up to Chris in greenfield getting big winds though while the 495 belt was experiencing merely a gusty summer afternoon. 

That is rather puzzling. Given the wind direction yesterday, is it possible gusty outflow perhaps led to the strengthening of an inversion? Breaks of sun though would have certainly negated that though. Perhaps the difference had to do with the dewpoints? We were mid-70's down in CT which helped to create a great amount of low-level instability. One thing I just thought of but didn't look at yesterday was DCAPE. I've never thought about using this in these type of situations but I think it provides value. Here is DCAPE values at 16z yesterday. This is right around the time when winds started to ramp up in CT. One thing I've noticed over the years too is there is a disconnect between max DCAPE values and strongest winds with convection (differences in that you won't see max DCAPE coincide with strongest winds). 

image.png.1218fb76492e16bb56d0bfc4cf9dbec9.png

 

I also think that the system evolved a little erratically...perhaps as a result of a transition to a more ET nature. But looking at the course of the H85 low, it actually kinda of elongates a little bit and I guess you could say "weaken". At first I thought maybe this tracked a bit farther east in the last few hours but I think the system overall just became a bit more elongated/tilted. This was happening as the LLJ max moved into CT so we maximized it, but it also began to shove the LLJ max farther east...which I think explains why even PVD got into some solid gusts.

Here is 19z and you can see the MAX over CT

image.png.d003bb7efc288415e4acd2a405b6d79c.png

 

Here is 21z. Based on this I would think the LLJ max is shunted east rather then going north into MA/northern New England

image.png.490270673b5fc7f0cfd5ab1e15fecd73.png 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

This is serious an extremely scary thought. I think the scariest aspect of it is how the general public would respond to these communications. 

I’m a pretty conservative forecaster by nature and part of that is because I don’t have a degree (it’s too late for me), but I think I know tropical pretty well.

If a bona fide cat 1 or 2 were coming to CT I’d probably be just short of calling it the apocalypse...because in CT it probably would be. 

2 hours ago, JC-CT said:

I can't help but marvel at the power of nature when it shows itself. It's not like we can do anything about it if we wanted to.

I don't enjoy the aftermath.

This. I have no idea why I am fascinated with tropical. When I was a kid, in true weenie fashion I used to pretend I was out like Cantore covering hurricanes. I made my own fantasy maps. I used to spend hours on an old mid 90s era computer with a program that had all the hurricane season statistics and tracks. I used to religiously watch Steve Lyons at 50 past the hour for the tropical update. Now I chase. It’s just something in my soul. Maybe it’s the power, maybe it’s the degree of difficulty in forecasting, but I love it. 

That said, I know it causes enormous damage and destruction. That tempers me a lot. I pay my penance by trying to be the best tropical forecaster I can be and by giving back when I go to a damaged chase location. 

We don’t have any control over it, so we just do the best we can. Any severe weather is going to harm someone. That includes our beloved winter weather. I think we all agree if we could wave a magic wand to allow us to experience severe anything without harming people or the economy we’d wave it. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This is damage.  A small branch it is not.

Yeah..my neighbors had a large limb down in their backyard..probably comparable to what DIT posted but it was basically a nothingburger here and not worth posting an image. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m a pretty conservative forecaster by nature and part of that is because I don’t have a degree (it’s too late for me), but I think I know tropical pretty well.

If a bona fide cat 1 or 2 were coming to CT I’d probably be just short of calling it the apocalypse...because in CT it probably would be. 

I've learned a ton about tropical from you. I've honestly never really followed tropical or studied it so my knowledge is slim...I do follow Josh, Eric Webb, and a few others closely on Twitter when they discuss tropical so I've picked up on things but not nearly enough to where I have confidence discussing things. The only thing I really know is...it takes one helluva pattern to get one here and IDK if models show a hurricane striking 3-days out...if the pattern isn't supportive I'll write it off faster than a Trump bounced check. 

I'll never forget (3 years ago?) that hurricane models had hitting us...the one that fuji------ off the SE coast? One of my classmates needed new pants b/c he was going wild about it saying it was going to be a hit. It was like 3-days out, models showed it hitting and he said to me, "you still think it's going to be a miss?" I said, "yup". He said, "you're crazy" and ran out of the weather center saying he had to call and warm people...lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dryslot said:

That's what homeowners Ins policies are for.

Sure. Have one of those. Still the inconvenience of having a tree cave my roof in is not something I want to experience.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Sure. Have one of those. Still the inconvenience of having a tree cave my roof in is not something I want to experience.

I would say nobody does but........

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, klw said:

Was the wind's strength why the camera was always moving around? :P  I was getting dizzy watching this.

Wind for us maxed at about what I think is shown in this video.  We were lucky and did not lose power at all which was surprising as prone as we are to power interruptions.   Only blow downs were some tomato plants. (Same as with Irene interestingly enough)  Even my broken maple which is snagged on other trees remained in its mostly upright position.

Sorry heard a tree snap and jerked around to make sure it wasn't falling my way.  Neighbors took it on the chin here. I will try harder next time.

Screenshot_20200805-104810_Gallery.jpg

Screenshot_20200805-104829_Gallery.jpg

Screenshot_20200805-104848_Gallery.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

That is a very small pressure change though. You would see something more notable in a true G wave.

Not true all the time but you can see that often in Baro traces as it bounces around with wind pressure changes during high wind events. Notable if you follow it. You should put your station online.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dryslot said:

That's what homeowners Ins policies are for.

I have hit mine 3 times in 9 years. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ginx snewx said:

I have hit mine 3 times in 9 years. 

Twice here since i lived here, Hurricane Bob was the worst.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sorry heard a tree snap and jerked around to make sure it wasn't falling my way.  Neighbors took it on the chin here. I will try harder next time.

Screenshot_20200805-104810_Gallery.jpg

Screenshot_20200805-104829_Gallery.jpg

Screenshot_20200805-104848_Gallery.jpg

Damage!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My neighbor is a lineman for Eversource. Going to be days and days before power comes back on for many. Southwest CT is a mess. About half of Eversource customers in CT still have no power. 

 

Screenshot_20200805-105824_Chrome.jpg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I've learned a ton about tropical from you. I've honestly never really followed tropical or studied it so my knowledge is slim...I do follow Josh, Eric Webb, and a few others closely on Twitter when they discuss tropical so I've picked up on things but not nearly enough to where I have confidence discussing things. The only thing I really know is...it takes one helluva pattern to get one here and IDK if models show a hurricane striking 3-days out...if the pattern isn't supportive I'll write it off faster than a Trump bounced check. 

I'll never forget (3 years ago?) that hurricane models had hitting us...the one that fuji------ off the SE coast? One of my classmates needed new pants b/c he was going wild about it saying it was going to be a hit. It was like 3-days out, models showed it hitting and he said to me, "you still think it's going to be a miss?" I said, "yup". He said, "you're crazy" and ran out of the weather center saying he had to call and warm people...lol

This is one of those times I wish I went to school for a met degree. When I got into UConn I considered it but would have needed to do some kind of independent study degree or something like that. I would have gotten killed on the math aspect without help lol. I also felt that my best use of ability would be in policy and public service.

There’s so much knowledge that can be learned out here if you follow the right people. I just try to soak it up as best I can, and never feel like I’ve got a lock on knowledge. The most frustrating thing about this board is the declarative statements one way or another on tropical. It’s one of the hardest fields in all of meteorology still. You can’t get comfortable with a medium to long range model consensus. You have to work the problem all the way through. 

I once drove all the way to the Mississippi coast to chase. Even the day of I was adjusting and watching short range trends. I missed the storm by 20 miles. When I chased Florence I ended up in a perfect location, even as the hotel became surrounded by water. Ten miles over and I would have lost my car to river flooding. Tropical tracking ain’t for the faint of heart. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, BrianW said:

My neighbor is a lineman for Eversource. Going to be days and days before power comes back on for many. Southwest CT is a mess. 

 

Screenshot_20200805-105824_Chrome.jpg

Yes looking around its a mess.  Fukin great. Eversource is under the gun for their humongous rate increase and their lack of infrastructure investment while their CEO and board rake millions.  This is going to be interesting.  All the WFH peeps now with political connections will turn up the heat.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, BrianW said:

My neighbor is a lineman for Eversource. Going to be days and days before power comes back on for many. Southwest CT is a mess. About half of Eversource customers in CT still have no power. 

 

Screenshot_20200805-105824_Chrome.jpg

It's going to take longer than usual because of COVID preventative measures...social distancing, 6ft apart, sanitizing, masks, etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cleaned my pool from massive debris,fuk it,  just gonna 5 o'clock somewhere today. Cleaned up the big branches and tried to rescue the garden. Storms are stressful,  time to destress.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is one of those times I wish I went to school for a met degree. When I got into UConn I considered it but would have needed to do some kind of independent study degree or something like that. I would have gotten killed on the math aspect without help lol. I also felt that my best use of ability would be in policy and public service.

There’s so much knowledge that can be learned out here if you follow the right people. I just try to soak it up as best I can, and never feel like I’ve got a lock on knowledge. The most frustrating thing about this board is the declarative statements one way or another on tropical. It’s one of the hardest fields in all of meteorology still. You can’t get comfortable with a medium to long range model consensus. You have to work the problem all the way through. 

I once drove all the way to the Mississippi coast to chase. Even the day of I was adjusting and watching short range trends. I missed the storm by 20 miles. When I chased Florence I ended up in a perfect location, even as the hotel became surrounded by water. Ten miles over and I would have lost my car to river flooding. Tropical tracking ain’t for the faint of heart. 

I literally have zero clue how I got through the math...I mean I did the majority of the math at community college so maybe I got off easier (though I did have to re-take Calc III b/c I got a D and couldn't transfer it). I thought Physics was a million times harder...that I have absolute zero clue how I passed considering I failed every single test (I think lab grades and extra credit helped). Like I completely could not grasp the concept of physics...drawing those diagrams didn't help me one bit lol. I did wish I understood the math/theoretical aspect of things much better. 

But yeah...following the right people here...you'll learn more about forecasting than you will in school and it's not even close. I agree...it's frustrating during any event when people start declaring bust...not only the board but social media. Then discussion just starts going downhill

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's going to take longer than usual because of COVID preventative measures...social distancing, 6ft apart, sanitizing, masks, etc.

? They have been putting power poles up in my neighbor hood all summer banging them out. Didn't see a mask on anyone. I mean being in a bucket truck is a one man job. No one  I saw today outside chainsawing, town, tree companies, was worried about covid it seemed.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My GPA would have suffered greatly as a met major to say the least, especially since I spent more time chasing shots and women than studying in my freshman year. :lol: 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:


Yeah, when people say they want another 1938 they have no f’n clue what they are talking about.

 

I understand, as a weenie, experiencing the power of mother nature...I do...but as a homeowner with a family, I really don’t want the aftermath hassle. Even if I had my standby genny installed already, it’s still not that fun having tress collapse all around me and spending days chainsawing. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Saw this down the road from me. It looks like the shed blew threw the fence. Pretty crazy. 

624BA651-0221-4E49-8792-0AE026811239.png

Why you strap down sheds by code

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whatever happened to CT light and power? Are they still around?

I remember they were eviscerated after the Oct 2011 storm after some criticism during Irene 7-8 weeks earlier. There was a map along the MA/CT border that showed the CT border towns with like 80-100% outages and the MA border towns with very few. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I understand, as a weenie, experiencing the power of mother nature...I do...but as a homeowner with a family, I really don’t want the aftermath hassle. Even if I had my standby genny installed already, it’s still not that fun having tress collapse all around me and spending days chainsawing. 

I agree but the stories we have for the Grandkids. They will think you are Paul Bunyan 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Whatever happened to CT light and power? Are they still around?

I remember they were eviscerated after the Oct 2011 storm after some criticism during Irene 7-8 weeks earlier. There was a map along the MA/CT border that showed the CT border towns with like 80-100% outages and the MA border towns with very few. 

cLP became Eversource 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.