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wxeyeNH

Hurricane Isaias

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25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GON-WST def looks like a good spot later on. 

Yea Watch Hill Lighthouse would be my pick for an observation area. If Hunchie had gone to the Andrea he wouldn't have a beach to lay on as the tide should be up to the dunes. Full moon goon

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Are we thinking just a 2-3hr window of strong TS related winds but otherwise more damage possible for severe threats?

Yeah I would say perhaps a 3-4 hour window of the strongest winds...but I wouldn't let that fool you. That's still a relatively large period when you factor in the trees are fully leaved. My concern is we see what 50-60 mph gusts do during t'storms when those winds are rather brief. What would an extended period do? 

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

LLJ going across Delmarva right now so we’ll see what SBY to GEO reports in the next hour. 

You know ...I'm kinda coveting a private experiment through this synoptic cinema.

I'm still secretly unconvinced this thing doesn't elevate much of it's impact potential ... I joked and referred to it as a 'see-thru frisbie' a couple nights ago.  

But I'm holding back because the Euro solution from last night - however - hearkened somewhat to Ryan H'.s salient tweet about the jet structures potentially coupling with the vestigial mechanics. This most recent run seems to have additional isobars (along standard intervals) added as it is absorbing into the large cyclonic envelopment over the N OV...and it's difficult to see that as being tropical in nature for what is forcing that, once this thing is passing NYC's ~ latitude.  It seems it is getting an assist in "re" or depth maintenance as it accelerates N of the Del Marva here during the afternoon - going by the 00z run... I don't see another reason for that ... 

If it wasn't for that, this would probably decouple from the lower troposphere below a weakening threshold and pressure pattern normalizing below restoration's ability to overcome the BL resistance much more than 10 mi inland from the coast(s).  And it'd be TS warning with 20mph breezes and heavily tilted Bahama towers..

So...what is fascinating here is that this may end up producing a synoptic wind pulse from that idiosyncrasy alone, but not "really" be a TC at that time.   Here's a forecast,  cloudy with a 90% chance of misconception of what is really being experienced, in lieu of this din of oohs and ahs ...where if you try to cut in and explain the truth, everyone blink twice, turns around and re-engages the oohs and ahs..

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What do you think the prospects are for the potential of a strong tornado? I know they're exceedingly rare with tropical cyclones...and we know how rare strong tornadoes are in New England, but with the LLJ ramping up like that and about to overlap where 3km CAPE values are approaching 200 J/KG and given the size of the hodographs...I have to think it's a possibility. Perhaps the limiting factor is we aren't using a larger portion of the troposphere...would probably need some really deep convection but you get a discrete cell ahead of this stuff...there's an awful lot to utilize. 

Given the winds aloft, I’d think EF2 is possible for sure. Low topped supercells can produce but as you know it’s harder. But the wind and shear is there to tighten up one of these guys.

 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know ...I'm kinda coveting a private experiment through this synoptic cinema.

I'm still secretly unconvinced this thing doesn't elevate much of it's impact potential ... I joked and referred to it as a 'see-thru frisbie' a couple nights ago.  

But I'm holding back because the Euro solution from last night - however - hearkened somewhat to Ryan H'.s salient tweet about the jet structures potentially coupling with the vestigial mechanics. Thus recent runs seems to have additional isobars (along standard intervals) and it's difficult to see that as being tropical in nature once this thing is passing NYC's ~ latitude.  It seems it is getting an assist in "re" or depth maintenance as it accelerates N of the Del Marva here during the afternoon - going by the 00z run... I don't see another reason for that ... 

If it wasn't for that, this would probably decouple from the lower troposphere below a weakening threshold and pressure pattern normalizing below restoration's ability to overcome the BL resistance much more than 10 mi inland from the coast(s). 

So...what is fascinating here is that this may end up producing a synoptic wind pulse from that idiosyncrasy alone, but not "really" be a TC at that time.   Here's a forecast,  cloudy with a 90% chance of misconception of event burying what really took place beneath of din of oohs and ahs.

Tip going big.. 

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea Watch Hill Lighthouse would be my pick for an observation area. If Hunchie had gone to the Andrea he wouldn't have a beach to lay on as the tide should be up to the dunes. Full moon goon

My folks are out on the island. I've demanded pics/vids later, as it will be a good show on the water. 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah I would say perhaps a 3-4 hour window of the strongest winds...but I wouldn't let that fool you. That's still a relatively large period when you factor in the trees are fully leaved. My concern is we see what 50-60 mph gusts do during t'storms when those winds are rather brief. What would an extended period do? 

I’m not letting anything fool me. Simply trying to time my day so I get my kids out of daycare beforehand. There are more important matters, for some, then getting a stiffy over damage. 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know ...I'm kinda coveting a private experiment through this synoptic cinema.

I'm still secretly unconvinced this thing doesn't elevate much of it's impact potential ... I joked and referred to it as a 'see-thru frisbie' a couple nights ago.  

But I'm holding back because the Euro solution from last night - however - hearkened somewhat to Ryan H'.s salient tweet about the jet structures potentially coupling with the vestigial mechanics. This most recent run seems to have additional isobars (along standard intervals) added as it is absorbing into the large cyclonic envelopment over the N OV...and it's difficult to see that as being tropical in nature for what is forcing that, once this thing is passing NYC's ~ latitude.  It seems it is getting an assist in "re" or depth maintenance as it accelerates N of the Del Marva here during the afternoon - going by the 00z run... I don't see another reason for that ... 

If it wasn't for that, this would probably decouple from the lower troposphere below a weakening threshold and pressure pattern normalizing below restoration's ability to overcome the BL resistance much more than 10 mi inland from the coast(s). 

So...what is fascinating here is that this may end up producing a synoptic wind pulse from that idiosyncrasy alone, but not "really" be a TC at that time.   Here's a forecast,  cloudy with a 90% chance of misconception of event burying what really took place beneath of din of oohs and ahs.

Pretty much a LLJ jet issue here as many have pointed out. The transitioning core will go up the Hudson Valley.  

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1 minute ago, Hoth said:

My folks are out on the island. I've demanded pics/vids later, as it will be a good show on the water. 

Good observation spot.

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10 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Guidance did a good job of identifying this mornings convective/spinner threat out west. 

We still yawn out east.

I don't think i ever have said this, But i may be to far east for the goods.

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

LLJ going across Delmarva right now so we’ll see what SBY to GEO reports in the next hour. 

53 knots at SBY 

49 knots at WWD

 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Given the winds aloft, I’d think EF2 is possible for sure. Low topped supercells can produce but as you know it’s harder. But the wind and shear is there to tighten up one of these guys.

 

Yeah my main concern is the amount of CAPE within the lowest 3km which is also where shear is maximized. Plus you're talking about LCL's ~500m which strong tornadoes become much more of a possibility when LCL's are below 750m. Violent tornado parameter is also at a 2 in CT

 

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Yeah wiz, I don’t know about a strong type of tornado, but with these TCs you get a lot of EF1s and maybe even an EF2.

I think for us it depends on that arc of cells that is off the Delmarva. But I’m not sure how much oomph that has when it comes up here. The peak of the tornado stuff I think is now in the Delmarva.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah wiz, I don’t know about a strong type of tornado, but with these TCs you get a lot of EF1s and maybe even an EF2.

I think for us it depends on that arc of cells that is off the Delmarva. But I’m not sure how much oomph that has when it comes up here. The peak of the tornado stuff I think is now in the Delmarva.

I do think the threat is real in SW CT for sure. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah wiz, I don’t know about a strong type of tornado, but with these TCs you get a lot of EF1s and maybe even an EF2.

I think for us it depends on that arc of cells that is off the Delmarva. But I’m not sure how much oomph that has when it comes up here. The peak of the tornado stuff I think is now in the Delmarva.

I should have clarified but by strong I was getting at EF2 type stuff possible. But yeah, I agree...I also think perhaps that stuff may arrive a bit too early but looks like dews in southern CT are a bit higher and 3km CAPE is the same or slightly greater. Guess it's just a matter of does shear increase further before they arrive

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NYC looks like a prime spot for tornado threat and high wind threat...Staten Island and Brooklyn are likely greatest risk being exposed to the southeast fetch off the open water...

That recent 90 mph gust in Virginia was also reported in the same sector that’s likely to effect NYC area if extrapolate current trajectory...

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10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Tip going big.. 

I'm seriously curious ... "tip going big"  - what exactly did you glean from that post I just made ?

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Need some advice from the Mets please.    The Euro has been consistent in bringing a core of very strong gusts through the NW Lakes Region of NH.  It actually intensifies the core as it moves north just east of the Conn Valley.  Im at a high elevation with a south exposure.   I rarely gust over 40 and my all time high in a winter cold front is 61mph.  That did a lot of damage.   Is this core of winds even remotely possible.  Euro says 80-90mph gusts.  I don't believe that but even 60 would be very strong

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