nw baltimore wx Posted August 13, 2020 1.40” this evening.in Pikesville. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
high risk Posted August 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Are we looking at a more widespread coverage in the next few days?? Probably not Thursday and Friday. Still potential for huge soakers, but the weaker steering currents argue against widespread coverage. The weekend could be a different story, with a very favorable upper pattern and tropical moisture still in place. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
midatlanticweather Posted August 13, 2020 Alright folks. Feel like a small tornado came through. Thoughts? Green blob just south of Purcellville Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted August 13, 2020 Never heard of WOFs before... anyone else heard of it before? What kind of model ensemble is it? Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 946 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A front will stall over the Middle Atlantic through Thursday, then drift southward Friday into Saturday. The front will then lift back northward through the end of the weekend as low pressure lifts into the Ohio River Valley. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... The heaviest rain has tapered off for the majority of our region. A line of thunderstorms have formed over western Maryland and the eastern Panhandle of WV. The WOFs or Warn on forecast experimental ensembles were hinting at this solution all night and this will remain the main concern area over the next few ours. A new thunderstorm has also formed over central Virginia in Orange County and if it happens to move over areas that received a lot of rainfall in our central Virginia counties , further flood warnings may be needed. Since we have ongoing storms that may linger through the next few hours we may need extend the Flash Flood Watch through the overnight periods. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
high risk Posted August 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, yoda said: Never heard of WOFs before... anyone else heard of it before? What kind of model ensemble is it? https://wof.nssl.noaa.gov It's a hi-res ensemble, effectively run on-demand. You select a regional domain of interest and initialize it with new assimilation techniques to try to get the best initial conditions (environmental parameters and ongoing precipitation). The longer term goal is to have a system like this be good enough so that warnings can actually be issued by forecasts from the WoF instead of having to wait for radar signatures or ground truth. 3 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted August 13, 2020 16 minutes ago, high risk said: https://wof.nssl.noaa.gov It's a hi-res ensemble, effectively run on-demand. You select a regional domain of interest and initialize it with new assimilation techniques to try to get the best initial conditions (environmental parameters and ongoing precipitation). The longer term goal is to have a system like this be good enough so that warnings can actually be issued by forecasts from the WoF instead of having to wait for radar signatures or ground truth. Very interesting and thanks for the response, appreciate it. Sounds like something to do in my spare time lol 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WEATHER53 Posted August 13, 2020 Got popes here earlier, 0.70” Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted August 13, 2020 Flash Flood Watch for everyone starting this morning into this evening 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nw baltimore wx Posted August 13, 2020 The radar is fairly active for pre sunrise. Flash flood watches all the way to the coast. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weatherCCB Posted August 13, 2020 1.93” from storms yesterday. 1.55”of which fell in 50 mins. WPC nailed it. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted August 13, 2020 24 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: The radar is fairly active for pre sunrise. Flash flood watches all the way to the coast. Morning AFD from LWX tells us why Quote Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 409 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A front will stall over the Middle Atlantic today, then drift southward Friday into Saturday. The front will then lift back northward through the end of the weekend as low pressure lifts into the Ohio River Valley. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Stalled front in the vicinity combined with a tropical air mass and passing shortwave energy promises to make the next few days interesting. For this morning, a fairly significant vort max and shortwave will move through shortly. This is already starting to cause storms to develop, and expect coverage to expand northward, maxing out during rush hour. Locally heavy rain is very possible and given the rain we had yesterday in some areas, a flash flood watch seemed prudent. Ran the watch through this evening as expect more storms to fire in the afternoon, but highest coverage likely occurs this morning with the shortwave. Exhaustion of CAPE and modest height rises/anticyclonic flow this afternoon likely keep coverage a bit reduced. Some sun will break through, but highs will only be in the 80s. By comparison, tonight looks like we will be between upper level features, so evening convection will diminish and do not expect a refiring overnight. Lows in the 60s to 70s. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted August 13, 2020 Already pouring here as a storm has developed right over top of me Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
H2O Posted August 13, 2020 showers here at work Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
snowfan Posted August 13, 2020 Pouring. Like I needed more rain. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DanTheMan Posted August 13, 2020 I do enjoy waking up to some rumbles. Mod rain Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted August 13, 2020 0.00" at home . But starting to rain at my jobsite which I don't want. This house I'm working at must have gotten crushed last evening. Just a big mud hole currently . Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dailylurker Posted August 13, 2020 Pouring again here in the AA county swamp jungle. Heavy rain developed right overhead and hasn't moved in 45 minutes. Probably getting close to another inch on top of the inch that fell last evening. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jewell2188 Posted August 13, 2020 Pretty consistent burst of heavy rain thunder and lightening since about 5:30 in Haymarket area. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
adelphi_sky Posted August 13, 2020 So this is what heavy rain is like. Cool! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eskimo Joe Posted August 13, 2020 9 hours ago, yoda said: Never heard of WOFs before... anyone else heard of it before? What kind of model ensemble is it? https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/wof/#:~:text=Warn-on-Forecast is a,flash flood warning lead times.&text=A new approach is needed to extend effective lead time. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
snowfan Posted August 13, 2020 Still pouring. Rivers flowing down the roads. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
snowfan Posted August 13, 2020 And, now we have T&L. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MN Transplant Posted August 13, 2020 That is some serious rain SE of Manassas/W of Dale City. >3" in an hour indicated by radar and backed up by some of the PWSs. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
adelphi_sky Posted August 13, 2020 .93" so far. That is pretty good for me. I don't need 3" of rain in an hour. Give me the soaking rain without the flash flooding. Thanks! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mappy Posted August 13, 2020 all of 0.08 yesterday. rain all around but nothing stayed overhead. hope you guys dry out okay further south 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MN Transplant Posted August 13, 2020 Back down to 0 w/m^2 solar. Dark out there this morning. 0.63" combined over the past two days. Good enough. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
H2O Posted August 13, 2020 sky just opened up near Merrifield. Very dark out too. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
