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George BM

August Discobs 2020

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3 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Are we looking at a more widespread coverage in the next few days??

    Probably not Thursday and Friday.   Still potential for huge soakers, but the weaker steering currents argue against  widespread coverage.

   The weekend could be a different story, with a very favorable upper pattern and tropical moisture still in place.

 

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Never heard of WOFs before... anyone else heard of it before?  What kind of model ensemble is it?

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
946 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will stall over the Middle Atlantic through Thursday, then
drift southward Friday into Saturday. The front will then lift back
northward through the end of the weekend as low pressure lifts into
the Ohio River Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The heaviest rain has tapered off for the majority of our
region. A line of thunderstorms have formed over western
Maryland and the eastern Panhandle of WV. The WOFs or Warn on
forecast experimental ensembles were hinting at this solution
all night and this will remain the main concern area over the
next few ours. A new thunderstorm has also formed over central
Virginia in Orange County and if it happens to move over areas
that received a lot of rainfall in our central Virginia counties
, further flood warnings may be needed. Since we have ongoing
storms that may linger through the next few hours we may need
extend the Flash Flood Watch through the overnight periods.

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17 minutes ago, yoda said:

Never heard of WOFs before... anyone else heard of it before?  What kind of model ensemble is it?

 

 

https://wof.nssl.noaa.gov             It's a hi-res ensemble, effectively run on-demand.     You select a regional domain of interest and initialize it with new assimilation techniques to try to get the best initial conditions (environmental parameters and ongoing precipitation).      The longer term goal is to have a system like this be good enough so that warnings can actually be issued by forecasts from the WoF instead of having to wait for radar signatures or ground truth.

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16 minutes ago, high risk said:

https://wof.nssl.noaa.gov             It's a hi-res ensemble, effectively run on-demand.     You select a regional domain of interest and initialize it with new assimilation techniques to try to get the best initial conditions (environmental parameters and ongoing precipitation).      The longer term goal is to have a system like this be good enough so that warnings can actually be issued by forecasts from the WoF instead of having to wait for radar signatures or ground truth.

Very interesting and thanks for the response, appreciate it.  Sounds like something to do in my spare time lol

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24 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

The radar is fairly active for pre sunrise. Flash flood watches all the way to the coast.

Morning AFD from LWX tells us why

Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
409 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will stall over the Middle Atlantic today, then drift
southward Friday into Saturday. The front will then lift back
northward through the end of the weekend as low pressure lifts
into the Ohio River Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Stalled front in the vicinity combined with a tropical air mass
and passing shortwave energy promises to make the next few days
interesting. For this morning, a fairly significant vort max and
shortwave will move through shortly. This is already starting to
cause storms to develop, and expect coverage to expand
northward, maxing out during rush hour. Locally heavy rain is
very possible and given the rain we had yesterday in some areas,
a flash flood watch seemed prudent. Ran the watch through this
evening as expect more storms to fire in the afternoon, but
highest coverage likely occurs this morning with the shortwave.
Exhaustion of CAPE and modest height rises/anticyclonic flow
this afternoon likely keep coverage a bit reduced. Some sun will
break through, but highs will only be in the 80s. By comparison,
tonight looks like we will be between upper level features, so
evening convection will diminish and do not expect a refiring
overnight. Lows in the 60s to 70s.

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Pouring again here in the AA county swamp jungle. Heavy rain developed right overhead and hasn't moved in 45 minutes. Probably getting close to another inch on top of the inch that fell last evening. 

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all of 0.08 yesterday. rain all around but nothing stayed overhead. hope you guys dry out okay further south

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