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"Marginal" SVR/FF risk 3P Today-3P FRI July 30-31

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Good Friday morning,

First glance a little disappointed in max rainfall. So far I find only 2.5" but need further eval. Anyone with more than 2.5" last night, please post.  Thanks for adding all those comments on the overnight storms, and the radar imagery. 

Looks like the modeled R+ and potential SVR track was very good, especially HREF.  Looks like general 1/2-2" in that slot, inclusive of LI I78-I195 corridor---definitely a little less than forecast but not all the reports are in yet. 

Added svr report info. More to post ~845A.   728A/31 


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18 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i slept right through it

Same here...…..

Valium I am taking to help vertigo / vestibular issue definitely aided in sleeping through that. Sigh......

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I enjoyed the light, thunder and heavy rain show during a stroll after midnight. The postage stamp was happy as were the felines under whatever furniture they decided on. As always ... 

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Failed forecast for the Max 3-4" range.  Only verified about 2.5-2.75 in worst case, that I can find so far in a quick check.

Think the rest did okay, timing, axis and glad LI got a pretty good rain.  

Note the DIX/OKX radar underestimated STP, imo, significantly per CoCoRAHS, RU CLIMATE stations and wx underground reports. 

Next events already in the other combined tropic. Should be an interesting few days ahead for some of us... water related.

Northeast  moving SVR a pretty big risk Sunday afternoon with stronger wind aloft, plenty of instability. This may show quite a few more damage reports than what we saw last night. Need to reevaluate with new guidance the next day or 2. 

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