• Member Statistics

    16,093
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    fujiwara79
    Newest Member
    fujiwara79
    Joined
wdrag

"Marginal" SVR/FF risk 3P Today-3P FRI July 30-31

Recommended Posts

Uncertainty is considerable and confidence in any severe storm today is below average. Feel best chance 3P-10P and mainly southern CT. 

Much greater confidence for an event to monitor late tonight-Friday morning, especially midnight-Noon when the front stalls, surface convergence produces heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms in NJ-LI in high PWAT airmass, especially I78 south where 6 hour "isolated 3-4" rains could occur in Ocean,  Monmouth or Mercer County. It is s of I78 where a storm may become severe after midnight and a little concerned about a supercell there early Friday. A fair amount of low level shear in a somewhat high CAPE environment is modeled down toward the Jersey shore s of Sandy Hook Friday morning. 

So not guaranteeing the second paragraph above but a number of models are heading in this direction as of 6AM/30.

Meanwhile, some beneficial rainfall is seeming headed for parts of nw NJ, maybe even all of the forum area where storms missed last week. 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quick update at 1053A:  Too much cirrus today for much if any SVR... still need to monitor CT after 5P. 

However: 

Tonight seems destined for some warnings in NJ and possibly LI. FFW in the most vulnerable tracks of 3-4" within 6 hours and I still think 1 or 2 storms overnight with damaging wind and a possible super cell I78 southward.  This latter supercell risk, I'll need to recheck at 4P. 

I've added 1 and 6 hr COUNTY wide threshold FFG for triggering a possible FFW, courtesy of NWS BGM.  Do note that the NWS offices have sub basin triggers and can really hone in on specific areas, should the needed rainfall occur.  You should be seeing-hearing lightning and dogs barking overnight in parts of NJ and LI with FFW potential late tonight-Friday morning primarily in any heavily paved communities where rainfall exceeds 3".I think that will be between I78-I195 in NJ and probably parts of LI.   

Screen Shot 2020-07-30 at 10.48.14 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-07-30 at 10.49.05 AM.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Got pretty dark here.

Severe T storm warning for Northern Westchester, Fairfield county CT. Around Ossining now,  Mt Kisco about to get it.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the hrrr has shown storms hitting around 6z for 5 runs in a row

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

and the hrdps blasts us around 3am

it shows the same scenario as the hrrr

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think this will occur, big time. look for development between PHL-ABE* around 11-11P and toward NYC from there. All sorts of high dew point air moving northward from the Delmarva along with pressure falls.  We've had two or three thunder episodes here. 215P, around 330 and about 520P.  Dog barks when outside. Can't see what he hears. Wantage 0.07 so far.  Added severe weather so far today in our area... the report in south central CT is a 47MPH wind gust at about 440P. 

Screen Shot 2020-07-30 at 5.45.43 PM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It was rumbly south and north of me. I got some drizzle that wasn't even measurable because none of the stations within 5 miles of me reported anything. It did drop the temp 15 degrees which is nice, it's 74 now and was 89 earlier.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think we're very close to seeing a rapid increase in convection and subsequent east-northeast development - training near I78.  Winds turning nw and soon north, to the north of I78, while hot and humid upper 80s with TD low-mid 70s south of I78 (non marine).  A good sign is the remaining pings of small but heavy showers the PA entering se NYS at 745P.  In the meantime, not sure what will happen to all that DELMARVA activity, maybe it's own separate entity into the night? 

This may be pretty interesting between midnight -10AM in the southern part of our NYC forum area-at least for R+/TR+. (I78-LI southward). 750P/30 and possibly my last of the night. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Storms moving into Camden yards...the entire crowd left 

As an Oriole diehard I am both amused and incredibly triggered.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I forgot about the thread here.

Lots of lightning looking westward, getting ready for the 2 AM wakeup thunder.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

I forgot about the thread here.

Lots of lightning looking westward, getting ready for the 2 AM wakeup thunder.

Sooner than that 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Sooner than that 

CTC each and every second.  I hate to look at my phone unless I miss something.  WOW!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Absolutely pissing rain.  Total FF stuff.  The entire sky is condensing on my head.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.