wdrag Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Saw the SPC upgrade to marginal risk today in our area. A bit surprised. 86/69 here in Wantage at 1240P.. A little uneasy how this unfolds. amazing 12z models have so little in northern PA at this time and many have very little in our forum area this afternoon. That's always a bit concerning for me... modeling 2-3 hours before go time look pretty pathetic today except ICON. We'll see and should know by 4P if anything decent will develop or spill over into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 89 here, if it weren’t for yesterday’s clouds this could’ve potentially been day 3 of a 4 day heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 90 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 2PM Roundup TEB: 91 ACY: 91 EWR: 90 New Brnswck: 90 BLM: 89 NYC: 89 LGA: 89 TTN: 88 ISP: 87 JFK: 87 PHL: 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 the euro shifted north thursday and has 95+ potential again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the euro shifted north thursday and has 95+ potential again and Fri pending on timing of Laura's clouds/remnants? Did it back down on 850's 00z or 06z runs? >16c Thu peaking >18c between Thu 18z and 18Z friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Just now, SACRUS said: and Fri pending on timing of Laura's clouds/remnants? Did it back down on 850's 00z or 06z runs? >16c Thu peaking >18c between Thu 18z and 18Z friday 20c thurs, 18c friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 24, 2020 Author Share Posted August 24, 2020 Another day of 90+ temps in the books here. Current temp 92/DP 72/RH 52% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 max/min of 91/71 so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I remember we had a close miss in mid December 2010 and most thought we'd have a very low snowfall season, and then the big multi model bust came that gave us the Boxing Day surprise and the rest, as they say, was history (and historic.) It took until the end of the month for the Pacific to finally become favorable. The models were showing fantasy day 6-10 snows for much of December before Boxing Day delivered. The record -AO/-NAO streak from June 2009 to January 2011 may be tough to replicate. But who knows with all the weather and climate extremes since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Dec 2000 and 2010 were kind of similar with rumors of storms weeks before they actually happened... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Currently 87 here, high was 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 51 minutes ago, uncle W said: Dec 2000 and 2010 were kind of similar with rumors of storms weeks before they actually happened... boxing day was dec 2000 on steroids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Park hit 90, #19 on the year. 20 seems like a lock. Some posters said 0 90 degree days for the city.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 92/71 temp split today...Yesterday high temp of 87°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Park hit 90, #19 on the year. 20 seems like a lock. Some posters said 0 90 degree days for the city.... yep, bust on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 High of 92, low of 75 today. I have to tally up my 90+ days, but I can say there have been way less 89’s this summer compared to the previous two. I hate 89’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 36 minutes ago, Cfa said: High of 92, low of 75 today. I have to tally up my 90+ days, but I can say there have been way less 89’s this summer compared to the previous two. I hate 89’s. 90+ 2018: 17 (max of 99) 2019: 14 (max of 98) 2020: 25 (max of 97) 89’s 2018: 6 2019: 9 2020: 2 86+ (30°C) 2018: 38 2019: 38 2020: 44 70+ lows 2018: 40 (max min of 77) 2019: 19 (max min of 78) 2020: 32 (max min of 80) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 LGA moves into 5th place for the most 90° days. BDL is currently in 1st place tied with 1983. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 48 0 2 2018 38 0 3 2002 35 0 4 1991 34 0 5 2016 32 0 2020 32 129 Time Series Summary for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2020 38 130 - 1983 38 0 3 2002 35 0 4 2010 34 0 - 1965 34 0 5 2018 32 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Cfa said: High of 92, low of 75 today. I have to tally up my 90+ days, but I can say there have been way less 89’s this summer compared to the previous two. I hate 89’s. 27 , 90° days here so far...my record is 44 days in 2010. I have recorded 12 years with more than this year...of course there's still more to come. Have to check my 70° mins and see where we stand on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Cloudy 89, after a high of 93. 31st of the year. Basically following LGA, but a little less 95+ days. Looking back, mid July to early Aug was almost wall to wall 90s. 7/24, and 7/31 broke up what would of been a super heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 The smoke arrives tomorrow from the record Western US wildfires. But much of it should remain aloft creating hazy conditions. https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_smoke_jet&domain=full&run_time=24+Aug+2020+-+19Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Under partly to mostly sunny skies, readings soared into the upper 80s and even some lower 90s across the region today. Parts of the region, especially eastern Pennsylvania and also New England saw scattered thunderstorms. Highs included: Allentown: 89° Baltimore: 91° Harrisburg: 92° Hartford: 89° Islip: 88° New York City-JFK: 88° New York City-LGA: 93° (tied record set in 1998) New York City-NYC: 90° Newark: 93° Philadelphia: 91° Washington, DC: 89° 90° Days for Select Cities (through August 24): Albany: 13 (2019: 12 days) Allentown: 23 (2019: 24 days) Baltimore: 42 (2019: 59 days) Boston: 14 (2019: 15 days) Burlington: 20 (2019: 8 days) Harrisburg: 32 (2019: 33 days) Hartford: 38 (2019: 27 days) Islip: 6 (2019: 8 days) New York City-JFK: 10 (2019: 7 days) New York City-LGA: 32 (2019: 26 days) New York City-NYC: 19 (2019: 15 days) Newark: 29 (2019: 28 days) Philadelphia: 33 (2019: 35 days) Scranton: 24 (2019: 12 days) Washington, DC: 41 (2019: 62 days) New York City-Newark Average: 23 (2019: 19 days) ...Expected: 23 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) Tomorrow could again see readings approach or reach 90° in much of the region. There will be a risk of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. The month could end on a cool note before temperatures return to above normal levels during the first week of September. The remnants of Laura could exit off the Delmarva Peninsula this weekend. The system has the potential to bring a period of heavy rain along or near its path and another area of heavy rain along a frontal boundary to its north. There remains some uncertainty about Laura's track and the location of the front. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, providing a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. Parts of the West continued to experience near record to record warmth. Select high temperatures included: Death Valley, CA: 120° Denver: 98° (tied record set in 2011) Flagstaff: 87° Kingman, AZ: 106° Lake Havasu City, AZ: 113° Las Vegas: 107° Needles, CA: 116° Palm Springs, CA: 115° Phoenix: 115° (tied record set in 1985) Pueblo, CO: 100° Tucson: 107° Yuma, AZ: 116° Today was the 11th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 120° or above at Death Valley. It is the longest August stretch since August 6-17, 2012 when the mercury reached 120° or above on 12 consecutive days. Phoenix has an implied near 100% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature of 96.7° - 96.9°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°. August 2020 could approach or exceed that figure. There is currently an implied 62% probability that August will exceed July's monthly record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely evolve into La Niña conditions during the fall. The SOI was +11.17. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.793. On August 23, the MJO was unavailable. The MJO's recent passage through Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above has been fairly uncommon during the August 10-25 timeframe. During the 1981-2019 period only 2002 and 2004 saw the MJO move through Phase 8 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during this period. Both cases were followed by a warmer than normal September. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9°. Finally, on August 23, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.266 million square kilometers (JAXA). There is an implied 91% probability that Arctic sea ice extent will reach a minimum figure below 4.000 million square kilometers for the second consecutive year and third time on record. The highest 25% bound is 3.825 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound is 3.473 million square kilometers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 all the la nina Decembers since 2000 had at least 3" of snow except in 2011 which had 3" in October...2000, 2005, 2008, 2010, 2017 had at least 6" of snow and a snowstorm at least 4"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 8/24 LGA: 93 EWR: 93 ACY: 92 TEB: 92 PHL: 91 New Brnswck: 91 NYC: 90 BLM: 90 TTN: 90 ISP: 88 JFK: 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Labor Day tropical risk shofts to the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 3 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: The tiniest weeniest cell is hitting here in Piscataway. Looks like hardly enough rain to cover a few city blocks but it is making lots of angry thunder. .19 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 25, 2020 Author Share Posted August 25, 2020 High for the day yesterday was 93 here. Current temp 72/DP 69/RH 88% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 The last 7 days are averaging 80degs., or 6.5degs. AN. Month to date is +1.8[77.3]. August.should end near +2.7[77.9]. Corrected for GFS +5 bias, +1.6[76.8]. All models have 3 more 90-Degree Days before summer ends, 8/31. Tropical debris figure on leaving just 0.5"-1.0" around Saturday. 75*(83%RH) here at 6am, scattered overcast. 79*(77%RH) by 9am. 85*(60%RH) by Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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