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August 2020 Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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Reported some precip to cocorahs for the 5th time in 7 days this AM, total for the period is 0.03", and not a drop for the 11 days prior to that.  Have yet to hear thunder this month and today-tomorrow might be the last chance.  August 2008 had only one day with thunder, all other Augusts here had more.  Still fun reading about the Mass-acre storms.

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On 8/22/2020 at 6:31 PM, Henry's Weather said:

How often do we get highlighted in day 4 spc outlooks?

probably happens a couple times each summer. 

19 hours ago, Henry's Weather said:

Where is weatherwiz to start a thread for Tuesday?

 

I spend weekends with my girlfriend so I try not to be buried into my phone too much. Anyways...did get one started this morning but as usual everyone is going to think tomorrow is massive widespread potential and then cry bust b/c they didn't get anything...even though this setup is not widespread convection and most probably see nothing. BUT...for those that do...the storms will pack a punch 

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D5/6 Euro continues the big severe look for me... ( 00z operational but the EPS bears reasonable likeness) 

Also... it occurs to me there's no definitive pattern change that suggests we are moving discernibly toward seasonal change. We are introducing some increased frequency for frontal intrusion down to 40 N over the continent - I don't see that as necessarily signaling that because you can have boundaries lay down across these regions in JJA of any year.  I think folks confusing that "fair" assessment with calendar date and expectancy ..so labeling it as that. Having 850mb temperatures of +15 to +19 C on D8/9/10 of the operational Euro under 582 dm hypsometric bath everywhere S of Colorado to Maine is deep summer...  - just imho.  We have yet to observe a kind of quatra-hemispheric scaled coherent evolution of the pattern away from summer and into transition ... 

I also think that I may be missing the point here a little ...in that we're really elaborating on the 'feel' of days ...?  If perhaps the early sun setting and earlier light-dimming in the evenings, combined with just calendar awareness ...these psycho-babble feed into that...  But I need the the pattern 'break' toward fall and I'm not really seeing this - it appears to be more likely happenstance of the pattern allowing more cfrontal in an interval or two, coincidence with expectancy ... The front this week has shallowed in the Euro coming inside of D5 ... what's new, as it has subtly backed off the height coring into Ontario that it typically has to correct when between D6 --> 4's ... ( these are the summer versions of the D8 east coastal bombs that model entertains us with as a seemingly permanent model run to model run fixture ... only to become shredded Clippers  - sarcasm!).  

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