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weatherwiz

TS Fay - Drought ending Rains and Severe Convection

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An area of low pressure is set to emerge off the Carolina coast over the next 24-36 hours where environmental conditions are favorable for the emerging low pressure to acquire tropical characteristics and perhaps become our next named system in the Atlantic. While the prospects for a [by definition] tropical system to hit our area, the prospects for impact are vastly increasing. This impact will come in the form of torrential downpours and gusty winds (especially along the coast). 

With not much of a kicker to push the impending system out to sea, the most likely course of action is a track close enough to the coast to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Just how close to the coast will determine where the axis of heaviest rain occurs and where the strongest wind gusts occur (which could be in the 30-45 mph range). Despite how dry it's been, flooding will likely become a problem where the heaviest rainfall occurs. 

Forecast models develop a rather anomalous LLJ for the month of July (in excess of 40 knots) with PWAT values exceeding 2.50'' and theta-e ridge just south of southern New England. All these favor the likelihood for some widespread heavy rainfall. While instability won't be overly large (limited by weak lapse rates), there will be enough instability to yield the potential for embedded t'storms which will only locally enhance rainfall rates. 

The fast overall nature of the heaviest rainfall may limit overall flooding extent. The greatest window for heaviest rain looks to be Friday to early Saturday morning. After Saturday AM attention turns to an approaching front. Wind shear isn't overly strong, but combination of very warm temperatures, high dewpoints, and potential for a plume of steeper lapse rates to advect in could set the stage for scattered t'storms both Saturday and Sunday...including the potential for a few severe t'storms capable of locally damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Then...moving forward....we dream of the D as we may party like it's 1995.

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I’m most interested in the tropical aspect, but heavy rain with the LLJ and anomalous PWATS could bring an interesting period here. 

FWIW, recon has a flight scheduled for tomorrow. The first flight for a messy system is usually canceled so depending on how coherent a center is when 98L emerges offshore tomorrow, we might have our first flight by Thursday. 

NOUS42 KNHC 071701
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EDT TUE 07 JULY 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2020
         TCPOD NUMBER.....20-042

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR CAROLINAS)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
       A. 08/2000Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
       C. 08/1800Z
       D. 33.0N 78.5W
       E. 08/1930Z TO 09/0000Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
       A. 09/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0206A CYCLONE
       C. 09/0900Z
       D. 34.0N 77.0W
       E. 09/1100Z TO 09/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
       SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REM

As I mentioned in another post, SSTs off the Carolina coast are pretty toasty.

cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1.png

The other day I said something to the effect that the temps up here are frigid relative to the south, but that’s not quite accurate. Certainly below the 26C threshold, but much warmer than normal. Especially along the coastline.

natlanti.c.gif
cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.png

So it’s not entirely clear to me that should something develop south it completely falls apart heading north. In fact, guidance shows some “deepening” of the low as it likely transitions north. Perhaps it becomes subtropical?

Regardless of the classification, rain and some breezy conditions are what’s most likely. 

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12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Let’s get some big rains ..some big gusts , and some big swells left over for Saturday in RI beaches 

Hoping this winds up enough 

At least there is something to pay attention to during the dullest weather time of the year. 

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Not all of New England saturated over the last few weeks, but ground wet enough that this doesn’t help and may cause Sultan Signal to be hoisted.

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6 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

It would be like 48" of snow!  :weenie: :arrowhead:

That only happens for EMA though so the shift east would begin Thursday...if this was winter. 

As is, I think this gets more tropically nuked as we get closer. 

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I was wondering when someone would start the very necessary thread called, "Drought Ending Rains and Menial Convection"

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This whole thread a needs matter-energy replicator like in star trek, that can turn it into a baseball bat,...that then bludgeons Kevin whenever he impulsively dooms us with drought fears because a single blade of his lawn's grass turned to straw 

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Euro looked like weak sauce 

a 1006 low farting up the coast , let’s tighten up 

Crazy uncle Ukie was preferred 

planning on Newport this weekend , maybe swept out from the rocks at the Sachuest point wildlife preserve 

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Heading out to Fishers this weekend. Pass on the rain and on any wind/waves that might jeopardize the scant inches of sand on my beach.

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2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Euro looked like weak sauce 

a 1006 low farting up the coast , let’s tighten up 

Crazy uncle Ukie was preferred 

planning on Newport this weekend , maybe swept out from the rocks at the Sachuest point wildlife preserve 

Euro would take trees down and allow for spinners with that look 

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4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a spinner threat Saturday morning with the warm SST’s and high dews 

Purely curious, how do warm SST’s promote Tors?  They don’t hamper convection like cooler SSTs?  Anyone can answer, not directed specifically at Kev.

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Purely curious, how do warm SST’s promote Tors?  They don’t hamper convection like cooler SSTs?  Anyone can answer, not directed specifically at Kev.

In SNE, they don’t cool the boundary layer with stable marine air. It’s why you see so many on LI and S CT deeper into the summer months. Sometimes called “ Sunrise surprise”

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20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In SNE, they don’t cool the boundary layer with stable marine air. It’s why you see so many on LI and S CT deeper into the summer months. Sometimes called “ Sunrise surprise”

Gotcha, ok that’s what I was thinking but was wondering if there was more of a relationship between actual tornadoes and SSTs... but its more the relationship between convection and the marine layer.  Can’t have tors if you don’t get convection and strong updrafts.

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The marine  flow can stabilize, but with the likelihood of a surge of high dew points along with good convergence and low level shear,  it’s not hard to do with just a little CAPE in the lower 3KM.  I think ideally you want waters a bit warmer like very late month and in August, but you could do it. 

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16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The marine  flow can stabilize, but with the likelihood of a surge of high dew points along with good convergence and low level shear,  it’s not hard to do with just a little CAPE in the lower 3KM.  I think ideally you want waters a bit warmer like very late month and in August, but you could do it. 

Do you think the warmer than normal SSTs we have currently can offset that?

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