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TS Fay - Drought ending Rains and Severe Convection


weatherwiz
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9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Thanks. Thinking beyond 98L, the basin is warm. Even up this way. With the upper level pattern it’s only going to get warmer. The intraseasonal environment has been such that even the most marginal crap has been able to develop in odd places this early in the season. When the wave train really gets going it could be trouble for someone. 

Not here (:lol:) but you look at the overall environment and it’s as intriguing as it gets. 

I agree, thinking New England’s 30 year Hurricane drought might come to an end this year.  

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7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I can’t believe in a NE strike until it’s on the doorstep, but the overall peak of the season looks to be robust to say the least.

Turning to today, 98L has a lot of convection offshore this morning. Not a whole lot of organization though. Watch the hot towers. If they are consistent enough we could get a new vortex to form.

For meaningful tropical development to occur, 98L must take advantage of the warm waters off the coast. Convection is right over the Gulf Stream. 

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Looks like a hot mess right now.  Circulation is somewhere around the SC/GA border.  This doesn’t look like anything more then a tropical wave.  Don’t see any true organization of it as it moves up the coast.

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18 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

An area of low pressure is set to emerge off the Carolina coast over the next 24-36 hours where environmental conditions are favorable for the emerging low pressure to acquire tropical characteristics and perhaps become our next named system in the Atlantic. While the prospects for a [by definition] tropical system to hit our area, the prospects for impact are vastly increasing. This impact will come in the form of torrential downpours and gusty winds (especially along the coast). 

With not much of a kicker to push the impending system out to sea, the most likely course of action is a track close enough to the coast to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Just how close to the coast will determine where the axis of heaviest rain occurs and where the strongest wind gusts occur (which could be in the 30-45 mph range). Despite how dry it's been, flooding will likely become a problem where the heaviest rainfall occurs. 

Forecast models develop a rather anomalous LLJ for the month of July (in excess of 40 knots) with PWAT values exceeding 2.50'' and theta-e ridge just south of southern New England. All these favor the likelihood for some widespread heavy rainfall. While instability won't be overly large (limited by weak lapse rates), there will be enough instability to yield the potential for embedded t'storms which will only locally enhance rainfall rates. 

The fast overall nature of the heaviest rainfall may limit overall flooding extent. The greatest window for heaviest rain looks to be Friday to early Saturday morning. After Saturday AM attention turns to an approaching front. Wind shear isn't overly strong, but combination of very warm temperatures, high dewpoints, and potential for a plume of steeper lapse rates to advect in could set the stage for scattered t'storms both Saturday and Sunday...including the potential for a few severe t'storms capable of locally damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Then...moving forward....we dream of the D as we may party like it's 1995.

Dare I ask what the "D" is?  

Dry? Dews? Dunkin? Darwin?

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Heaviest rain would like be to the N and NW side of the circulation. Some guidance puts this in western New England and SE NY. To the east probably would be a quick burst of rain followed by some SCT downpours and humid srly breezes.

Speed looks a bit quicker too so that could limit overall flash flooding threat. I'm thinking bet chance for a brief TOR is along the Jersey shore

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21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Speed looks a bit quicker too so that could limit overall flash flooding threat. I'm thinking bet chance for a brief TOR is along the Jersey shore

Northeast quad is where that risk is typically highest, *if* this maintains significant tropical characteristics into the northern Mid Atlantic. With that, I think Long Island, Eastern CT, RI and SE MA, might be more interesting.  

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10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Northeast quad is where that risk is typically highest, *if* this maintains significant tropical characteristics into the northern Mid Atlantic. With that, I think Long Island, Eastern CT, RI and SE MA, might be more interesting.  

yeah for sure. If this can certainly develop into something and move northward at a fast enough clip then things would certainly be more interesting. 

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2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Looks like a hot mess right now.  Circulation is somewhere around the SC/GA border.  This doesn’t look like anything more then a tropical wave.  Don’t see any true organization of it as it moves up the coast.

I’ll take the other side of this. The CoC is further northeast, and there has been a recent blow up of convection right in that location. I think much better shot this surprises to the upside—intensity wise—than the opposite..Next 6-10 hrs will be quite telling, as it remains over the Gulf Stream. 
 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-eastcoast-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

71C11868-3096-4708-A92D-8D02F03D9428.gif

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