CIK62 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 The GFS for the next 16 days has so many 90's you need a Four Year College Degree to count that high. Almost no Rain to go with it. They belong together anyhow. Puts the remainder of July [11 days] at 80/97 = 88.5 or +10.5. 95* (42%RH) Heat Index =100* here at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 97° was the highest temperature around the area last 2 days at LGA. So we continue the pattern of the warmest July temperatures coming around the 20th. It will be interesting to see if next week can beat 97°for a late monthly max. Highest July temperature and date at EWR or LGA since 2010 7-19/20-20.....97 7-21-19........100 7-1-18...........98 7-20-17.........98 7-23/25-16...99 7-19-15.........98 7-2-14...........96 7-18-13........101 7-18-12........104 7-22-11........108 7-6-10..........103 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 95/69. HI 101. Temps been mostly steady since late morning until small bump to current high temp. Humidity has dropped somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 Made it to 96 here today after am low of 79. DP's have been pretty steady around 70 all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 91/76/102. High was 95, low was 76. Heat index peaked at 117 (briefly) when the dew point surged when the sea breeze arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 FRG reporting 96 again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 1 hour ago, psv88 said: FRG reporting 96 again... They hit 97 between hours when the winds shifted back to the NW. My temp shot back up to 96. But i didn't make it to 97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 89/75/100 still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Will it still be hot and humid tomorrow? Only good thing about this heat is that offshore fishing offers relief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: Will it still be hot and humid tomorrow? Only good thing about this heat is that offshore fishing offers relief Drier tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 7/20 JFK: 97 BLM: 97 LGA: 97 ACY: 97 PHL: 96 EWR: 96 TTN: 94 TEB: 94 ISP: 93 NYC: 93 New Brnswk: 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 3 hours ago, CIK62 said: The GFS for the next 16 days has so many 90's you need a Four Year College Degree to count that high. Almost no Rain to go with it. They belong together anyhow. Puts the remainder of July [11 days] at 80/97 = 88.5 or +10.5. 95* (42%RH) Heat Index =100* here at 5pm. Sat/Sun looks like a break with onshore (not sure if Sun stays with the Easterly flow) before strong heat is likely Mon - Wed next week. Beyond there could get a little relief before more heat unloads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 No show storms today eventually fired up over the DELMARVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Today was another scorcher in many parts of the region. High temperatures included: Allentown: 93° Baltimore: 100° Boston: 93° Burlington: 91° Harrisburg: 98° Hartford: 96° Islip: 93 New York City-JFK: 96° New York City-LGA: 97° (morning low temperature: 84°) New York City-NYC: 93° Newark: 96° Philadelphia: 96° Washington, DC: 99° With its third consecutive 90° day, New York City's Central Park recorded its first heat wave of summer 2020. 90° Days for Select Cities (through July 20): Albany: 12 (2019: 12 days) Allentown: 11 (2019: 24 days) Baltimore: 26 (2019: 59 days) Boston: 4 (2019: 15 days) Burlington: 15 (2019: 8 days) Harrisburg: 16 (2019: 33 days) Islip: 2 (2019: 8 days) New York City-JFK: 5 (2019: 7 days) New York City-LGA: 15 (2019: 26 days) New York City-NYC: 9 (2019: 15 days) Newark: 13 (2019: 27 days) Philadelphia: 18 (2019: 35 days) Washington, DC: 28 (2019: 62 days) New York City-Newark Average: 11 (2019: 19 days) ...Expected: 10 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) Starting tomorrow, the excessive heat will begin to ease. Nevertheless, warmer than normal conditions will persist. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below. The SOI was +4.12. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.962. On July 19, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.327 (RMM). The July 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.224. The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 50 consecutive days. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.7°. The probability of an 80° mean temperature in July has increased in recent days to just under 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Don - JFK hit 97 inter-hour for max today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Dry winter, dry spring, dry summer. I am not enjoying this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIWeatherGuy29 Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 No rain here since Tropical Storm Fay. It's getting really dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 52 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Don - JFK hit 97 inter-hour for max today. What time? OKX has 96 for JFK, see picture from daily climate report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 14 minutes ago, uofmiami said: What time? OKX has 96 for JFK, see picture from daily climate report. After the 4pm climate summary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 good map for temp tracking: https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?lat=40.63915&lon=-73.76393&radius=25&rawsflag=290&site=KJFK&unit=0&time=LOCAL&product=&year1=&month1=&day1=00&hour1=00&currTimeChecked= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 1 hour ago, uofmiami said: What time? OKX has 96 for JFK, see picture from daily climate report. It hit 97 (96.8) several times. https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KJFK&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 21, 2020 Author Share Posted July 21, 2020 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 87degs., or 9degs. AN. Month to date is +2.7[79.1]. Should be about +4.5[81.4] by the 29th. For reference: Normal July 76.5 No. 1 81.4 No. 10 79.6 82*(53%RH) here at 6am, scattered cirrus. 84* at 8:00am but back to 82* by 10:00am. Still 82*(61%RH) Heat Index = 85* by Noon. Was on beach from 1pm-4pm, was mostly 83*-84*, but reached 86*(65%RH) by 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Looking back the past two days... looks like 97 was the good non-marine influenced max T for the 19th-20th. Even though the HI made it up to near 103-104 in Toms River and possibly parts of LI, overall, I think the max HI was closer to ~100 .. and so from my perspective yesterday-Monday the 20th, did not quite live up to the intense heat that was suggested in some of the modeling (trough too close and so some afternoon lowering of the TD near the city on a westerly surface wind). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 If we can avoid any rains next couple days then 100F will be a possibility early next week. Really intense surge of heat on Euro, looks even stronger than current surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 The future from my perspective: will begin a new two day topic for Wednesday-Thursday and add a couple of graphics by 740A. Next heat-convective event sometime between Sunday afternoon and the middle of next week, but modeling is variable as to which day? and modeling is also variable if indeed another heat wave occurs for NYC between the 26th-29th. I do note the GFS operational has reverted to a potential nw flow event here Sunday (00z/06z 21 cycles), but other global models differ (early or middle of next week). No matter, opportunity for action continues in the overall pattern sometime between Sunday the 26th and Wednesday the 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 80° Julys have become more common since 2010 at LGA and EWR. These July average temperatures are considered normal for areas around DC. DAILY NORMALS AND RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF JULY FOR WASHINGTON DC NORMALS BASED ON PERIOD 1981-2010 MONTHLY NORMALS: MAX 88.4 MIN 71.1 AVG 79.8 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 82.8 0 2 1999 81.9 0 3 2020 81.8 11 4 2019 81.5 0 5 2013 81.2 0 6 2016 81.1 0 7 1955 80.9 0 8 1966 80.8 0 9 2006 80.7 0 10 1994 80.6 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 82.7 0 2 1993 82.5 0 3 2010 82.3 0 4 1994 81.9 0 5 2013 80.9 0 6 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 7 2019 80.6 0 8 1955 80.5 0 9 1988 80.4 0 10 2002 80.0 0 11 2020 79.9 11 - 2016 79.9 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 9 hours ago, dWave said: After the 4pm climate summary This is hilarious. Now the final daily climo says it happened at 3:11pm lol Yet using 5 min obs it happened at 2 & 2:20 pm https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KJFK&table=1&num=168&banner=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Newark NJ 90 degree days... year.....total...cons...max...total 100 days... 1933.....18.....….5.....101.....1 1934.....18...…...5.....100.....1 1935.....14...…...3...….96 1936.....22...…...5.....104.....2 1937.....22...…...5.....100.....1 1938.....18...…...3...….95 1939.....24...…...3......95 1940.....15...…...5......99 1941.....27...…...4......97 1942.....15...…...2......98 1943.....31...…...4.....102.....2 1944.....39...…...8.....102.....4 1945.....24...…...5...….99 1946.....11...…...3......95 1947.....22...…...4......99 1948.....26...…...6.....103.....2 1949.....36...…...8.....105.....8 1950.....18...…...4...….98 1951.....18...…...3...….96 1952.....31...…...6.....102.....1 1953.....32...….11.....105.....6 1954.....18...…...3.....103.....2 1955.....32...…...6.....101.....4 1956.....14...…...5...….99 1957.....28...…...5.....101.....1 1958.....21...…...3...….96 1959.....40...…...5.....100.....1 1960.....13...…...4...….94 1961.....34...…...4...….98 1962.....14...…...4...….98 1963.....20...…...6.....100.....1 1964.....26...…...4...….99 1965.....26...…...4...….97 1966.....33...…...5.....105.....5 1967...….7...…...3...….95 1968.....23...…...4...….98 1969.....15...…...3...….96 1970.....22...…...5...….94 1971.....22...…...5...….96 1972.....21...….12...….96 1973.....31...….11.....100.....1 1974.....18...…...4...….98 1975.....12...…...4...….98 1976.....14...…...3...….93 1977.....26...…...9.....102.....2 1978.....16...…...5...….98 1979.....20...…...5...….96 1980.....27...…...4.....101.....2 1981.....21...…...8...….98 1982.....12...…...4.....100.....1 1983.....40...…...7...….99 1984.....22...…...5...….97 1985.....11...…...3...….97 1986.....22...…...5.....100.....1 1987.....37...…...8...….98 1988.....43...….20.....101.....5 1989.....27...…...6...….99 1990.....26...…...4...….98 1991.....41...…...7.....102.....2 1992.....22...…...3...….98 1993.....49...….10.....105.....9 1994.....39...…...5.....102.....2 1995.....33...….12.....104.....1 1996...….9...…...3...….99 1997.....20...…...6.....101.....2 1998.....21...…...4...….98 1999.....33...…...8.....103.....3 2000.....16...…...4...….96 2001.....22...…...5.....105.....3 2002.....41...….10.....100.....2 2003.....20...…...5...….95 2004.....13...…...2...….97 2005.....37...…...5.....102.....3 2006.....31...….10.....101.....3 2007.....21...…...4...….97 2008.....22...…...7...….99 2009.....11...…...7...….95 2010.....54...….14.....103.....4 2011.....31...…...5.....108.....4 2012.....33...….11.....104.....3 2013.....25...…...7.....101.....2 2014.....15...…...3...….96 2015.....35...…...9...….98 2016.....40...…...8...….99 2017.....22...…...4...….99 2018.....36...…...6...….98 2019.....27...…...4...….99... 2020.....13.........3......96...as of 7/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 38 minutes ago, uncle W said: Newark NJ 90 degree days... year.....total...cons...max...total 100 days... 1933.....18.....….5.....101.....1 1934.....18...…...5.....100.....1 1935.....14...…...3...….96 1936.....22...…...5.....104.....2 1937.....22...…...5.....100.....1 1938.....18...…...3...….95 1939.....24...…...3......95 1940.....15...…...5......99 1941.....27...…...4......97 1942.....15...…...2......98 1943.....31...…...4.....102.....2 1944.....39...…...8.....102.....4 1945.....24...…...5...….99 1946.....11...…...3......95 1947.....22...…...4......99 1948.....26...…...6.....103.....2 1949.....36...…...8.....105.....8 1950.....18...…...4...….98 1951.....18...…...3...….96 1952.....31...…...6.....102.....1 1953.....32...….11.....105.....6 1954.....18...…...3.....103.....2 1955.....32...…...6.....101.....4 1956.....14...…...5...….99 1957.....28...…...5.....101.....1 1958.....21...…...3...….96 1959.....40...…...5.....100.....1 1960.....13...…...4...….94 1961.....34...…...4...….98 1962.....14...…...4...….98 1963.....20...…...6.....100.....1 1964.....26...…...4...….99 1965.....26...…...4...….97 1966.....33...…...5.....105.....5 1967...….7...…...3...….95 1968.....23...…...4...….98 1969.....15...…...3...….96 1970.....22...…...5...….94 1971.....22...…...5...….96 1972.....21...….12...….96 1973.....31...….11.....100.....1 1974.....18...…...4...….98 1975.....12...…...4...….98 1976.....14...…...3...….93 1977.....26...…...9.....102.....2 1978.....16...…...5...….98 1979.....20...…...5...….96 1980.....27...…...4.....101.....2 1981.....21...…...8...….98 1982.....12...…...4.....100.....1 1983.....40...…...7...….99 1984.....22...…...5...….97 1985.....11...…...3...….97 1986.....22...…...5.....100.....1 1987.....37...…...8...….98 1988.....43...….20.....101.....5 1989.....27...…...6...….99 1990.....26...…...4...….98 1991.....41...…...7.....102.....2 1992.....22...…...3...….98 1993.....49...….10.....105.....9 1994.....39...…...5.....102.....2 1995.....33...….12.....104.....1 1996...….9...…...3...….99 1997.....20...…...6.....101.....2 1998.....21...…...4...….98 1999.....33...…...8.....103.....3 2000.....16...…...4...….96 2001.....22...…...5.....105.....3 2002.....41...….10.....100.....2 2003.....20...…...5...….95 2004.....13...…...2...….97 2005.....37...…...5.....102.....3 2006.....31...….10.....101.....3 2007.....21...…...4...….97 2008.....22...…...7...….99 2009.....11...…...7...….95 2010.....54...….14.....103.....4 2011.....31...…...5.....108.....4 2012.....33...….11.....104.....3 2013.....25...…...7.....101.....2 2014.....15...…...3...….96 2015.....35...…...9...….98 2016.....40...…...8...….99 2017.....22...…...4...….99 2018.....36...…...6...….98 2019.....27...…...4...….99... 2020.....13.........3......96...as of 7/20 very interesting yet scary statistics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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