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July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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June ended at +2.3[73.7].

The first 8 days of July are averaging 77degs., or about 1.5degs. AN.

GFS pegs the first half of July at 83.5, or +7.      July 12 hottest mean ever at 94?!.    Presented w/o comment and solely for your entertainment or suffering.

71* here at 6am, thin overcast.    73* by 10am, cumulus west.        74* by 1pm, then rain and down to 70*.        Had all sun after about 2:30pm and T back up to 78* by 4pm.

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9 minutes ago, saberonyx said:

Pretty quite start to July looking NW from Queens NY6057717daa420a084da028332bd54299.gif

A mackerel sky/cloud formation. One of the earliest atmosphere related terms that I become familiar with as a youngster. Well done ... as always .....
.

 

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Nice and humid today. I just wish it was sunny with some clouds. This is downright cloudy today. Anyone more knowledgeable on when are we going to get some real heat and humidity here this summer? I mean dews in the upper 70’s with highs in the mid 90’s to low 100’s? That’s the best weather anyone can ask for during the summer?

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20 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Nice and humid today. I just wish it was sunny with some clouds. This is downright cloudy today. Anyone more knowledgeable on when are we going to get some real heat and humidity here this summer? I mean dews in the upper 70’s with highs in the mid 90’s to low 100’s? That’s the best weather anyone can ask for during the summer?

The way we are headed atmospherically, JS, the future is yours. As always .....

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It will be interesting to see if the Euro is correct about the slower backdoor cold front on Friday. The model actually has upper 90s to our south. We were discussing the unusual WAA from SE Canada ahead of the front. 
 

CD60D636-2A56-4B0E-8814-66AB3CB48EA9.thumb.png.4120027f6d46c0daa6cafcca3d6a1cc7.png



 


 

 

 

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75/68 and a trace of rain so far.  Some breaks in the clouds but like yesterday storms and showers should develop more of the same and perhaps a bit more widespread than then.  Warming tomorrow but i m still have a hard time with forecasts of mostly sunny verifying, would go partly or mostly cloudy for Thu and temps low to mid 80s vs upper 80s or neat 90.  Fri the heat is on and pending on any onshore NE/Flow or storms - it should be the hottest day of the season so far.

The rest of fourth of July weekend looks spectacular.  Warm inland mid to upper 80s perhaps a stray 90 and cooler but nice along the beaches.  7/6 - 7/11 heat rebuild and pending on storms and clouds and a low pressure off the south east coast tht could led to some easterly flow Tues, the area should see widespread 90s and first strong heat potential/ heat wave in the period.  Overall looking warm to hot but wetter as storms should occur frequentlyly.  Next Thu (7/9)- Fri (7/10)look to sizzle at this point and Tue could as well if a low off the southeast coast is quicker or more south.

Half way point of the year 

 

 

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20 hours ago, SACRUS said:

75/68 and a trace of rain so far.  Some breaks in the clouds but like yesterday storms and showers should develop more of the same and perhaps a bit more widespread than then.  Warming tomorrow but i m still have a hard time with forecasts of mostly sunny verifying, would go partly or mostly cloudy for Thu and temps low to mid 80s vs upper 80s or neat 90.  Fri the heat is on and pending on any onshore NE/Flow or storms - it should be the hottest day of the season so far.

The rest of fourth of July weekend looks spectacular.  Warm inland mid to upper 80s perhaps a stray 90 and cooler but nice along the beaches.  7/6 - 7/11 heat rebuild and pending on storms and clouds and a low pressure off the south east coast tht could led to some easterly flow Tues, the area should see widespread 90s and first strong heat potential/ heat wave in the period.  Overall looking warm to hot but wetter as storms should occur frequentlyly.  Next Thu (7/9)- Fri (7/10)look to sizzle at this point and Tue could as well if a low off the southeast coast is quicker or more south.

Half way point of the year 

 

 

Looks like another warmer than average July coming up. Models have a 590+DM heat dome building over the Plains and Midwest.  So that will probably be our first extended stretch of widespread 90s across the region.

7B517FD9-D29E-48C9-824B-1E9C27E0F451.thumb.png.64c44539a911e7b49ae8374681d061cd.png
D194B433-9E08-4AE5-9AA6-37079F7FC87B.thumb.png.466287d15834fd3d8f9dd1a8ae609ef9.png

 

 

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Next week looks really hot. If we avoid onshore flow and clouds we could see mid to upper 90s for several days. 

The recent dry weather would even argue for higher temps. 

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
534 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Central Suffolk County in southeastern New York...

* Until 615 PM EDT.

* At 534 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Manorville,
  and is nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Riverhead and Westhampton around 615 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

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Parts of the region saw scattered thundershowers today. Tomorrow will be sunny and noticeably warmer. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 80s to near or just above 90°. Somewhat cooler air will return for the July 4 weekend. However, heat will build over the Central Plains and then eventually expand eastward next week.

A predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change during July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around June 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The SOI was +10.16.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.279.

On June 30, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.315 (RMM). The June 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.300.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn.

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

 

 

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7/1

PHL: 87
TTN: 84
LGA: 84
ISP: 83
New Brnswk: 82 
ACY: 82
EWR: 80
JFK: 80
TEB: 80
NYC: 80
BLM: 78

 

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Will post more more coherently Thursday morning, regarding the potential of the Friday, Monday-Friday workweek events of next week (looks like to me like at least 3, if not 4 more afternoons of thunderstorms between Fridays the 3rd-10th-not necessarily severe but won't surprise at isolated severe wet microbursts, despite lackluster wind fields aloft. Cape/KI/PWAT related and any boundaries.  

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Good Thursday morning - July 2.  NYC forum area. Plenty of southeastward slow moving convective afternoon or evening action the next week or so in differential WAA, but each day, some parts will miss. 

This afternoon...less unstable so a couple of showers or storms possible but my guess mostly out of se NYS into NNJ? 

Friday afternoon-evening: SPC marginal risk. Looks reasonable for a few torrents/iso SVR.

Saturday: if anything, looks way west of NYC?

Sunday: if anything looks very late in the day and northwest of the city?

Monday: Better chance for torrents.

Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday afternoons: "provided there are lift features", should be some big stuff as EC modeled CAPE/KI go up (2000+J, KI near 36)

Friday and beyond:  not commenting since models diverge considerably on treatment of se USA into the Atlantic low.

No cap evident next week and so it's a matter of lift features, yielding bands of strong storms and daily "isolated" SVR in a generally warmer than normal increasingly large PWAT with near 90F heat M-Thu. Where the best action... differs each day. 615A EDT/2

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1.70” event total, haven’t seen rain like that in ages.

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The next 8 days are averaging 78.5degs., or about 2.5degs. AN.

The cut during the next 15 days on the GFS is 76/93 or 84.5 = +7.5.

69* here at 6am, clear.     70* at 6:30am.         75* by 10am.        77* by Noon.       Just 85* here, near beach by 3:30pm.      81* at 4pm.        When that wind starts to come from the SW>W>NW I too will roast as I did back on Oct. 02 at 93* here with hot dust devils blowing in my face while on the beach that day.        Got to 90* here but at 7:30pm.

 

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77/67 and mostly sunny.  Surprised we cleared as well as we did, so temps may exceed prior thoughts and be on forecast near or low 90s.  Friday still looks like the hottest day of the season (so far) pending on clouds and any afternoon or early evening storms.

Fourth of July weekend looking down right splendid. Sunny warm and manly dry aside from a stray storm.  Beaches look cooler (70s) by Saturday and Sunday is very californi-like.  By Sunday the heat is building just outside the area, and starting Mon (7/6) to at least Sat (7/11) queue Glenn Frey - The heat is on.  Potential for strong heat (no records expected yet) peak heat looks tue - fri.  DO expect routine pm t storms.  Beyond there in the long range does look like a cold front arrives 7/11 weekend.  Ridge is building into the southwest and expanding east again into the Plains by mid month.  Overall much warmer than normal 7/6 week, warmer than normal 7/13 week and progression should see a hotter 7/20 week.

 

Happy fourth.

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Today looks like an overperforming downslope day. HRRR has low 90s for areas that get into the NNW flow.

 

1C941EE4-2620-4505-9BF3-A559F71996E0.png.89769b84208f23fb516fa0abde918762.png

 

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6 minutes ago, dWave said:

Not a cloud in the sky, 83 dew 66.

On track for NWS forecast of 90

As long as skies are clear 90 seems a go for today.  Tomorrow we’ll have to see if clouds pop up and thwart another attempt at 90. 

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