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ORH_wxman

Winter 2020-2021

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

88-89 was the worst strong Nina of the bunch. made no sense in many ways, it was a dry winter which defies nina climo. 99-00 was also crap but it did have a solid consecutive 6 weeks of white in Jan/Feb, surrounded by torches on either side. All the other strong ninas were above avg snow. This is starting off similar to 75-76 with a warm first half of November.

 

Strong Nina Snowfall at Detroit (longterm avg 41")

1973-74: 49.2"

1975-76: 55.9"

1988-89: 25.1"

1998-99: 49.5"

1999-00: 23.7"

2007-08: 71.7"

2010-11: 69.1"

Yea, so you had the same two ratters that I did.

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3 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I got a question. Why do you feel December could be a cold month for us? November started off with really cold air last year and then crap hit the fan lol. We had that warm pool out in West Pacific then also. 

Largely basin wide la nina climo dictates that the polar domain is less hostile early on. By cold, I mean near normal or slightly below. 

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6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, so you had the same two ratters that I did.

I mean don't get me wrong, a ratter is certainly possible...anything is always possible. But if the tables were turned and there were a few good winters and a bunch of ratters and someone called for a good winter, can you imagine the :weenie: they would get? :lol:

 

One year ago today a Winter storm watch was in effect and on Veterans Day Detroit saw the largest November snowstorm on record, followed by record smashing cold. Did that foretell Winter? I think not!

 

 

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10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

88-89 was the worst strong Nina of the bunch. made no sense in many ways, it was a dry winter which defies nina climo. 99-00 was also crap but it did have a solid consecutive 6 weeks of white in Jan/Feb, surrounded by torches on either side. All the other strong ninas were above avg snow. This is starting off similar to 75-76 with a warm first half of November.

 

Strong Nina Snowfall at Detroit (longterm avg 41")

1973-74: 49.2"

1975-76: 55.9"

1988-89: 25.1"

1998-99: 49.5"

1999-00: 23.7"

2007-08: 71.7"

2010-11: 69.1"

Interesting you mention 1975....was thinking about that one yesterday with the warmth. That had an obscene early November torch (and a +5ish month overall) too....though not quite as warm as these current few days. But I believe ORH cracked 70F a couple times and came close a whole bunch of others.

That year then started to see-saw in late November to mid December before we had a solid 5-6 week stretch from about 12/20 to late January.

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Interesting you mention 1975....was thinking about that one yesterday with the warmth. That had an obscene early November torch (and a +5ish month overall) too....though not quite as warm as these current few days. But I believe ORH cracked 70F a couple times and came close a whole bunch of others.

That year then started to see-saw in late November to mid December before we had a solid 5-6 week stretch from about 12/20 to late January.

I could see this winter ending up similarly to that one.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Interesting you mention 1975....was thinking about that one yesterday with the warmth. That had an obscene early November torch (and a +5ish month overall) too....though not quite as warm as these current few days. But I believe ORH cracked 70F a couple times and came close a whole bunch of others.

That year then started to see-saw in late November to mid December before we had a solid 5-6 week stretch from about 12/20 to late January.

yup, same.  The November torch was extremely impressive & despite a cold snap and snow on Thanksgiving the month still holds 4th warmest November on record here. Then December saw 20" of snow sandwiched around a torch mid month where the temperature hit 65゚. January saw plenty more snow and a temperature as low as -18゚ at Detroit before the 2nd half of February saw the torch return with more temps in the mid 60s. 

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Interesting you mention 1975....was thinking about that one yesterday with the warmth. That had an obscene early November torch (and a +5ish month overall) too....though not quite as warm as these current few days. But I believe ORH cracked 70F a couple times and came close a whole bunch of others.

That year then started to see-saw in late November to mid December before we had a solid 5-6 week stretch from about 12/20 to late January.

I remember standing outside of Steve’s Ice cream original Somerville location in mid January 1976 with a line around the block with temperatures neat 0.  We had 12+ about a day later.

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14 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I remember standing outside of Steve’s Ice cream original Somerville location in mid January 1976 with a line around the block with temperatures neat 0.  We had 12+ about a day later.

Yeah the January 1976 cold was really intense.

They day you are thinking of is probably 1/11/76. It was absolutely frigid. Good storm started that night and went into the next morning...temps were mostly in the single digits and teens during the snow.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the January 1976 cold was really intense.

They day you are thinking of is probably 1/11/76. It was absolutely frigid. Good storm started that night and went into the next morning...temps were mostly in the single digits and teens during the snow.

Nice three year run of winters that was.

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20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I remember standing outside of Steve’s Ice cream original Somerville location in mid January 1976 with a line around the block with temperatures neat 0.  We had 12+ about a day later.

Fooking LOVED that place.  Steve was a god around this place in the 70's.  It was always crowded regardless of temperature.

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52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the January 1976 cold was really intense.

They day you are thinking of is probably 1/11/76. It was absolutely frigid. Good storm started that night and went into the next morning...temps were mostly in the single digits and teens during the snow.

What were the temperatures like in February that year?.

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7 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

What were the temperatures like in February that year?.

Pretty much a furnace after the first week.

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15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

88-89 was the worst strong Nina of the bunch. made no sense in many ways, it was a dry winter which defies nina climo. 99-00 was also crap but it did have a solid consecutive 6 weeks of white in Jan/Feb, surrounded by torches on either side. All the other strong ninas were above avg snow. This is starting off similar to 75-76 with a warm first half of November.

 

Strong Nina Snowfall at Detroit (longterm avg 41")

1973-74: 49.2"

1975-76: 55.9"

1988-89: 25.1"

1998-99: 49.5"

1999-00: 23.7"

2007-08: 71.7"

2010-11: 69.1"

February 89 and December 89 both exhibited a bit of what we saw in 17-18.  Sometimes you get a decent pattern with cold air during La Ninas but they are too progressive so you end up with MA and SE snowstorms but the Northeast misses out.   Most always assume La Ninas are bad for places like DC/RDU/CLT but reality is if you get the right pattern for a few weeks those areas can cash in well whereas a similar setup in a neutral or ENSO might have sent the impacting system to their north.

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31 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

February 89 and December 89 both exhibited a bit of what we saw in 17-18.  Sometimes you get a decent pattern with cold air during La Ninas but they are too progressive so you end up with MA and SE snowstorms but the Northeast misses out.   Most always assume La Ninas are bad for places like DC/RDU/CLT but reality is if you get the right pattern for a few weeks those areas can cash in well whereas a similar setup in a neutral or ENSO might have sent the impacting system to their north.

I agree. This is why I had higher snowfalls than most for the mid atl.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty much a furnace after the first week.

And we had a nice snow in March but I remember skiing at Nashoba Valley a couple of days later with really warm temperatures. Katy Lied was blaring through the loud speakers.  Fun times!

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am pretty pleased with Isotherm-Tom's outlook..........especially north of the pike. Tough sledding for the higher elevations south of the pike....I will be sure to take pics for them.

Glad we don't live there.

Really cuz sure as hell his Jan  looks like Jan 11 to me. Good luck

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4 hours ago, Isotherm said:

My winter outlook has been posted on the main board, which links to it, for those interested:

 

Thanks for sharing Tom. Good luck but I hope you're off your game this year. It is 2020 after all. :D

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You have a very strange obsession with that season. His outlook was not similar to that season at all, except for January being the most wintery month.

I call it as I see it. You do you, never mentioned any other month

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You have a very strange obsession with that season. His outlook was not similar to that season at all, except for January being the most wintery month.

Jan 11 was all winter here. Though I have a feeling by the negative hints he meant Jan 12, which is everyone's favorite winter to fear lol.

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3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

February 89 and December 89 both exhibited a bit of what we saw in 17-18.  Sometimes you get a decent pattern with cold air during La Ninas but they are too progressive so you end up with MA and SE snowstorms but the Northeast misses out.   Most always assume La Ninas are bad for places like DC/RDU/CLT but reality is if you get the right pattern for a few weeks those areas can cash in well whereas a similar setup in a neutral or ENSO might have sent the impacting system to their north.

The cold produced nicely in 17-18 here. Plenty of snow Dec-Feb. Then after a March 1st snowstorm it turned cold and dry while the northeast cashed in.

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23 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

How well did they do with last year's prediction? Just curious

don’t really care to read an NYC forecast seeing as I live in New England and am posting in a New England thread

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53 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I'll take a good end of December and good January, my hopes for an epic year are fading. You coming out with your forecast soon Ray?

Seems like there’s still a lot of sentiment for anything but a huge winter. Some are going decent and others going below average and others going full-on ratter. 

 

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