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ORH_wxman

Winter 2020-2021

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh boy . Will’s rule about bad November’s . Not surprising though

 

Vortex looks like it wants to setup shop over NW Canada into AK. Notsonice. 

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18 minutes ago, Hazey said:

So that forecast was for the peaks in yeti country? Impressive amounts none the less.


#NovaScotiaStrong

Yeah, like Phin and Will said, the recorded areas get 700-800”, but the heli-ski operations have estimated 1,000+”.  Definitely possible to get those type of forecasts.  Not going to happen often but those are the big time storms up there.  Lots of moisture.

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Meanwhile the Para G has a blue bomb into the Berks and central NE ..

Models in general I’ve been flirting with something in that timeframe sometimes more efficient than other times in phasing other times keeping the wave spacing separate and shear it out… The flow being fast does favor shear but there is enough cold air around and with that rising PNA like that there’s kind of a pseudo-Archimbault look 

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14 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

You don’t want the AK pig in mid to late November. It’s ok if it’s in the first half of month and transient. 

If that GEFS pattern is what we have through late month, then it’s very worrisome. Judah is right though that the EPS isn’t all that bad. It actually has a -WPO pattern. 

 

There has definitely been several cases where its been present late November into December and flipped.  1993 was one I know of.  I think it was there more or less all of November into mid December.

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15 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh boy . Will’s rule about bad November’s . Not surprising though

 

Ugly? Looks great

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2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

There has definitely been several cases where its been present late November into December and flipped.  1993 was one I know of.  I think it was there more or less all of November into mid December.

There’s always exceptions to the rule but you’d rather not have one. 

Btw i wouldn’t classify Nov 1993 as a pig month. Def huge +AO but it had ridging approaching the EPO region. 

 

BD18CD52-E691-49B7-9EBE-C130B1AF1E6F.png

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Late autumn / .. early winter ‘93 was a comedy of greedy grinch going to far ..

It was as tho it couldn’t resist stealing that much more with that +NAO it torpedoed it’s intent to ruin winter.  NAO positive anomaly grew so extraordinary this establish a strong NW static conveyor N of the Lakes region that was confluence with the Pac mean jet ... 

oops ... grinch failure. although “grinch” mean specifically as it all relates to Christmas .. but it think the first in the series of winter storm was between then and NYears.  
 

fast flows transporting angular WAA up and over said confluence-related llv cold ftw!  It’s way we had so many very tall sleet column type deals. I remember one storm the (then) ETA FOUS was < 0C at all there sigma levels 800, 900, and 980 mb in an inch of sleet with 4-6” of OES from growth underneath ... 

That was the first winner I had ever experienced where storms were repetitive almost like clockwork ... every three or four days we were under another winter storm watch ... sometimes watch’s would go up when the storm in play wasn’t even finished.  
 

You know that’s kind of a subtle sort of unnoticed thing and that we’ve had a lot of winters with that repetitive storm behavior.  since then .. it’s almost like that was the flip of a different paradigm as far as that behavior 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Late autumn / .. early winter ‘93 was a comedy of greedy grinch going to far ..

It was as tho it couldn’t resist stealing that much more with that +NAO it torpedoed it’s intent to ruin winter.  NAO positive anomaly grew so extraordinary this establish a strong NW static conveyor N of the Lakes region that was confluence with the Pac mean jet ... 

oops ... grinch failure. although “grinch” mean specifically as it all relates to Christmas .. but it think the first in the series of winter storm was between then and NYears.  
 

fast flows transporting angular WAA up and over said confluence-related llv cold ftw!  It’s way we had so many very tall sleet column type deals. I remember one storm the (then) ETA FOUS was < 0C at all there sigma levels 800, 900, and 980 mb in an inch of sleet with 4-6” of OES from growth underneath ... 

That was the first winner I had ever experienced where storms were repetitive almost like clockwork ... every three or four days we were under another winter storm watch ... sometimes watch’s would go up when the storm in play wasn’t even finished.  
 

You know that’s kind of a subtle sort of unnoticed thing and that we’ve had a lot of winters with that repetitive storm behavior.  since then .. it’s almost like that was the flip of a different paradigm as far as that behavior 

There was actually a paper published on the January ‘94 storm that dropped the OES with sleet. It was back when Weymouth Naval Air Station still existed with obs (code KNZW I recall)...they were reporting heavy snow with sleet and under quarter mile vis. Almost the snow production was between 975-875 millibars with a max cold layer around -13C...with a thin elevated warm layer around 750mb. Wish I could find the paper.

Perfect heavy snow dendrites from OES while the synoptic stuff was producing pingers. Hilarious. 

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22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There was actually a paper published on the January ‘94 storm that dropped the OES with sleet. It was back when Weymouth Naval Air Station still existed with obs (code KNZW I recall)...they were reporting heavy snow with sleet and under quarter mile vis. Almost the snow production was between 975-875 millibars with a max cold layer around -13C...with a thin elevated warm layer around 750mb. Wish I could find the paper.

Perfect heavy snow dendrites from OES while the synoptic stuff was producing pingers. Hilarious. 

yeah ..that's got to be it, the one I'm thinking off. I was up at UML at the time and remember it took up a whole class session in discussion in FAST when we got around to it after the intersession.. . because it was like a 7 or 8,000 foot tall column b-52 carpet bombing sleet chunks while that S ( it was only moderate steady snow where we were in central-N Middls)  .. .But these were big sleet pellets... punching holes in the new snow pack weird..

And it was knuckle stinging cold in that event... I think it was 22C on the station monitor with moderate sleet and S- at the time I looked.  

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25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There was actually a paper published on the January ‘94 storm that dropped the OES with sleet. It was back when Weymouth Naval Air Station still existed with obs (code KNZW I recall)...they were reporting heavy snow with sleet and under quarter mile vis. Almost the snow production was between 975-875 millibars with a max cold layer around -13C...with a thin elevated warm layer around 750mb. Wish I could find the paper.

Perfect heavy snow dendrites from OES while the synoptic stuff was producing pingers. Hilarious. 

Maybe 1/14/99 storm you were thinking about?  Paper attached

26215320.pdf

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32 minutes ago, radarman said:

Maybe 1/14/99 storm you were thinking about?  Paper attached

26215320.pdf 1.12 MB · 1 download

Won't speak for William out of hand ... but, we are definitely talking about 1993-1994 winter shenanigans either way ...

the paper he mentions exists... i think now I recall it but gosh... 25 years and counting isn't high on priorities any longer. 

it's not likely "as rare" as we may think .. it's just that that Jan deal in '94 was like really tall.. the warm layer above 800 mb over Logan

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51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Won't speak for William out of hand ... but, we are definitely talking about 1993-1994 winter shenanigans either way ...

the paper he mentions exists... i think now I recall it but gosh... 25 years and counting isn't high on priorities any longer. 

it's not likely "as rare" as we may think .. it's just that that Jan deal in '94 was like really tall.. the warm layer above 800 mb over Logan

Yeah...great find by radarman and interesting paper but it was definitely 1994. I do remember that 1999 event...starting off absolutely frigid and then going to 50+. Almost like a different January 1994 event where we were snowing and like 7F and then 10 hours later we were 50-55F with steaming snow banks before the front put the deep freeze back on everyone later that night. 

I actually think you’ve mentioned that storm before Tip when you were up at Lowell.  

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If anyone could post the CFS and UKMET NDJ, or DJB la Nina SST anomaly map, I would greatly appreciate it.

Thanks.

Ray try this. I think it has ukmet on there (MetOffice)

https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal/

There’s an “NCEP” option. Not sure if that is the CFS or not. Probably is since I’m not aware of another domestic seasonal model. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Ray try this. I think it has ukmet on there (MetOffice)

https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal/

There’s an “NCEP” option. Not sure if that is the CFS or not. Probably is since I’m not aware of another domestic seasonal model. 

Thanks, Will.

I take a look at this later. I have to bookmark these so I can stop harassing people every fall. lol

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the nao was positive almost the whole winter of 1993-94...it did go negative around Christmas 1993...it was negative for a few days in January and end of February...on the other hand the AO was negative for long periods...

AO

1993 12  1  1.781
1993 12  2  1.635
1993 12  3  1.553
1993 12  4  1.720
1993 12  5  1.421
1993 12  6  0.925
1993 12  7  0.663
1993 12  8 -0.022
1993 12  9 -0.692
1993 12 10 -1.312
1993 12 11 -1.607
1993 12 12 -1.433
1993 12 13 -1.078
1993 12 14 -0.369
1993 12 15 -1.144
1993 12 16 -1.537
1993 12 17 -1.080

1993 12 18  0.022
1993 12 19  1.295
1993 12 20  1.901
1993 12 21  1.763
1993 12 22  0.497
1993 12 23 -0.293
1993 12 24 -0.517
1993 12 25 -1.129
1993 12 26 -1.649
1993 12 27 -1.401
1993 12 28 -0.654
1993 12 29 -0.431
1993 12 30 -0.742
1993 12 31 -1.201
1994  1  1 -0.871
1994  1  2 -0.761
1994  1  3 -1.023
1994  1  4 -1.107
1994  1  5 -1.892
1994  1  6 -3.054
1994  1  7 -2.881
1994  1  8 -2.700
1994  1  9 -2.913
1994  1 10 -3.073
1994  1 11 -2.820
1994  1 12 -1.965
1994  1 13 -1.127
1994  1 14 -1.440
1994  1 15 -1.804
1994  1 16 -1.028

1994  1 17  0.365
1994  1 18  1.959
1994  1 19  1.879
1994  1 20  2.470
1994  1 21  3.267
1994  1 22  3.221
1994  1 23  1.896
1994  1 24  0.959
1994  1 25  0.907
1994  1 26  1.005
1994  1 27  0.805
1994  1 28  0.215
1994  1 29  0.191
1994  1 30  1.181
1994  1 31  1.528
1994  2  1  1.535
1994  2  2  1.599
1994  2  3  0.503
1994  2  4 -0.865
1994  2  5 -1.166
1994  2  6 -1.451
1994  2  7 -1.321
1994  2  8 -0.483
1994  2  9 -0.055

1994  2 10  0.538
1994  2 11  0.892
1994  2 12  1.148
1994  2 13  0.848
1994  2 14  0.111
1994  2 15 -0.466
1994  2 16 -0.147
1994  2 17 -0.050
1994  2 18 -0.205
1994  2 19 -0.765
1994  2 20 -1.593
1994  2 21 -2.278
1994  2 22 -2.764
1994  2 23 -3.263
1994  2 24 -3.503
1994  2 25 -3.417
1994  2 26 -2.957
1994  2 27 -2.359
1994  2 28 -1.336

1994  3  1  0.321
1994  3  2  1.638
1994  3  3  1.977
1994  3  4  1.510
1994  3  5  1.390
1994  3  6  1.900
1994  3  7  1.860
1994  3  8  2.039
1994  3  9  2.500
1994  3 10  3.276
1994  3 11  2.997
1994  3 12  3.111
1994  3 13  3.795
1994  3 14  3.666
1994  3 15  2.393
1994  3 16  1.338
1994  3 17  0.685
1994  3 18 -0.041
1994  3 19 -0.473
1994  3 20 -0.287

1994  3 21  0.524

NAO


1993 11 30  1.291
1993 12  1  1.557
1993 12  2  1.538
1993 12  3  1.486
1993 12  4  1.390
1993 12  5  1.288
1993 12  6  1.175
1993 12  7  1.268
1993 12  8  1.564
1993 12  9  1.573
1993 12 10  1.297
1993 12 11  1.122
1993 12 12  1.009
1993 12 13  1.048
1993 12 14  1.476
1993 12 15  1.213
1993 12 16  1.065
1993 12 17  1.084
1993 12 18  1.177
1993 12 19  1.481
1993 12 20  1.444
1993 12 21  1.040
1993 12 22  0.346
1993 12 23 -0.395
1993 12 24 -0.685
1993 12 25 -0.824
1993 12 26 -0.854
1993 12 27 -0.495

1993 12 28  0.042
1993 12 29  0.169
1993 12 30  0.117
1993 12 31  0.187
1994  1  1  0.632
1994  1  2  0.627
1994  1  3  0.511
1994  1  4  0.707
1994  1  5  0.339
1994  1  6 -0.083
1994  1  7  0.119
1994  1  8  0.372
1994  1  9  0.079
1994  1 10 -0.200
1994  1 11 -0.254

1994  1 12  0.030
1994  1 13  0.231
1994  1 14  0.263
1994  1 15  0.171
1994  1 16  0.227
1994  1 17  0.469
1994  1 18  0.725
1994  1 19  0.883
1994  1 20  1.400
1994  1 21  1.736
1994  1 22  1.369
1994  1 23  0.999
1994  1 24  0.818
1994  1 25  0.890
1994  1 26  0.863
1994  1 27  0.586
1994  1 28  0.210
1994  1 29  0.420
1994  1 30  0.866
1994  1 31  1.118
1994  2  1  1.227
1994  2  2  1.150
1994  2  3  0.780
1994  2  4  0.492
1994  2  5  0.436
1994  2  6  0.342
1994  2  7  0.303
1994  2  8  0.296
1994  2  9  0.379
1994  2 10  0.765
1994  2 11  0.927
1994  2 12  1.058
1994  2 13  0.922
1994  2 14  0.382
1994  2 15  0.187
1994  2 16  0.480
1994  2 17  0.521
1994  2 18  0.215
1994  2 19  0.050
1994  2 20  0.064
1994  2 21  0.085
1994  2 22  0.262
1994  2 23  0.023
1994  2 24 -0.287
1994  2 25 -0.265
1994  2 26 -0.103
1994  2 27 -0.008

1994  2 28  0.111
1994  3  1  0.520
1994  3  2  0.843
1994  3  3  1.087
1994  3  4  0.959
1994  3  5  0.851
1994  3  6  1.134
1994  3  7  1.388
1994  3  8  1.554
1994  3  9  1.407
1994  3 10  1.248
1994  3 11  1.291
1994  3 12  1.355
1994  3 13  1.264
1994  3 14  1.202
1994  3 15  1.001
1994  3 16  0.462
1994  3 17  0.095
1994  3 18 -0.117
1994  3 19 -0.182
1994  3 20 -0.037

1994  3 21  0.288

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4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah...great find by radarman and interesting paper but it was definitely 1994. I do remember that 1999 event...starting off absolutely frigid and then going to 50+. Almost like a different January 1994 event where we were snowing and like 7F and then 10 hours later we were 50-55F with steaming snow banks before the front put the deep freeze back on everyone later that night. 

I actually think you’ve mentioned that storm before Tip when you were up at Lowell.  

Word! ...it's pretty much when I grew up as a fantasy Met into an adult pragmatic Met  - lol...  Before then, the specter of gaining 50 F in 12 hours was just too magnificent to believe... Since then nothing is amazing - geez

It was 12 F at 8 am with flurries under very light pellets ... at 8 pm it was 61 on the monitor up at the UML lab ...while white noise turbines straining trees.  And as you said, wind-whipped fogs shrouds being yanked off snow banks ...  Students were pouring out of dorms to rejoice in the faux nature of the warmth ... energy and love for the loss - I mean..if one is a winter enthusiast.  I think I was shaking my head in awe at one moment standing wondering how in the the f that was possible.. 

Yeah 8 am the next morning I think it was it was like 30 but cold enough to recement- ... Seriously, it was lessen  in not being plugged into the the temp on the dial, when there is 0 polar high N of the region.. The high was retreating overnight and abandoned it's own decoupled air mass...so the cold was very low level... probably only 2000 feet deep with a hugely positively sloped sounding over top I imagine...

But for those of us privy to our local climo ... all you need is " 1 " in polar high N and it disproportionately takes 12 to 18 more hours than even a quantum scale resolution model to admit the the cold is in place ...so, we get a payback on barrier jets and tucking when our moods fixed on keeping the goods :) and there's like any drain available at all...  It just sucks when we get that going in early April -

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Local NWS now has 4-9 inches of snow for Albuquerque from Monday morning to Wednesday morning. Record for October snow in Albuquerque is 3.2 inches for 1931-2019. Off the charts amazing if it verifies. Especially since the mountains could get 2-3 feet in some spots. If the NAO stays positive in November, that also favors New Mexico for precipitation. I do think these cold dumps down here are part of the pattern, given we're at two in two months. That said, I also think big moisture blobs coming out of the Gulf of Mexico is a feature, and will help you guys out when it is colder, given all the crap that they've dealt with on the Gulf Coast this hurricane season. The ACE index is also likely to top 140 or 145 now, depending on how long Zeta is over Mexico, which is starting to become more favorable (historically) to NE snowfall.

https://t.co/CJsEuTGhNp?amp=1

Image

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1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

The ACE index is also likely to top 140 or 145 now, depending on how long Zeta is over Mexico, which is starting to become more favorable (historically) to NE snowfall.

That's pretty much a given. Very good chance it ends up much stronger than forecast.

In addition ensembles show an additional Caribbean storm or two in the days ahead. I think an ACE above 160 is very likely when all is said and done.

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6 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Local NWS now has 4-9 inches of snow for Albuquerque from Monday morning to Wednesday morning. Record for October snow in Albuquerque is 3.2 inches for 1931-2019. Off the charts amazing if it verifies. Especially since the mountains could get 2-3 feet in some spots. If the NAO stays positive in November, that also favors New Mexico for precipitation. I do think these cold dumps down here are part of the pattern, given we're at two in two months. That said, I also think big moisture blobs coming out of the Gulf of Mexico is a feature, and will help you guys out when it is colder, given all the crap that they've dealt with on the Gulf Coast this hurricane season. The ACE index is also likely to top 140 or 145 now, depending on how long Zeta is over Mexico, which is starting to become more favorable (historically) to NE snowfall.

https://t.co/CJsEuTGhNp?amp=1

Image

There is some chance Zeta is more directly beneficial to NE snowfall.

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I've got four inches of snow in my backyard as of 6 pm 10/26. First time I've ever seen snow in October. Roads were a bit of a mess too, which is probably the most impressive thing. Snow in October in the valleys in the SW is unusual, it gets some pretty interesting composites/years for the east actually.

As far as the ACE goes, these little 65-75 knot hurricanes don't really add much to the totals, so I'd still bet against 160 ACE for the year. The calculation is highest wind speed every six hours in knots, squared, divided by 10,000. So a 100 kt hurricane would be four points if it lasted that intensity for a day. Zeta will weaken over Mexico.

I really think once 2007 re-aligns with the 2020 MJO progression - possible in November - we'll see a pattern more akin to that year. CPC has 2007 as one of the main analogs in the 8-14 range now for the first time in a while.

 

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On 10/26/2020 at 8:14 PM, raindancewx said:

I've got four inches of snow in my backyard as of 6 pm 10/26. First time I've ever seen snow in October. Roads were a bit of a mess too, which is probably the most impressive thing. Snow in October in the valleys in the SW is unusual, it gets some pretty interesting composites/years for the east actually.

As far as the ACE goes, these little 65-75 knot hurricanes don't really add much to the totals, so I'd still bet against 160 ACE for the year. The calculation is highest wind speed every six hours in knots, squared, divided by 10,000. So a 100 kt hurricane would be four points if it lasted that intensity for a day. Zeta will weaken over Mexico.

I really think once 2007 re-aligns with the 2020 MJO progression - possible in November - we'll see a pattern more akin to that year. CPC has 2007 as one of the main analogs in the 8-14 range now for the first time in a while.

 

Thanks for your analysis, you have been spot on recently. Although this time I hope you are off that was a terrible winter snowfall wise in lower half of SNE.

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5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for your analysis, you have been spot on recently. Although this time I hope you are off that was a terrible winter snowfall wise in lower half of SNE.

But in the pike region and north it was pretty good to great south to north.

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9 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

So is this temporary? I know @ORH_wxman had mentioned he thought easterlies would keep this east. Right now...clearly coldest anomalies chugging west.

20201029_064148.thumb.jpg.bffdd9e6f028b52fab473f247502cc81.jpg

 

 

Coldest anomalies are, and have been centered between 130 and 140W for a long time now. That should continue, and the eastern flank shouldn't warm too much. I think the region 4 will warm from current -0.9 to about -1.2 to -1.3, which doesn't change anything IMO.

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This snow event for Boston is a good sign for the snow part of my winter outlook - NYC got jack, Boston got snow. I think that's going to repeat quite often in the winter. We'll see I guess.

Definitely wasn't expecting record October snow in Boston and Albuquerque, that's one hell of a storm to do that, even with the huge SOI drop from the La Nina base state earlier in the month.

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