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June Discobs 2020

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48 here this morning.

Another near perfect weather day coming up, before a quick transition to a very warm and humid air mass for the mid to late week period. Looks like the front will stall rather than clear the area, so there should also be some chances for showers and storms.

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48 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

48 here this morning.

Another near perfect weather day coming up, before a quick transition to a very warm and humid air mass for the mid to late week period. Looks like the front will stall rather than clear the area, so there should also be some chances for showers and storms.

My VP2 is down but it's really cool out this am . Probably low mid 40s guessing.  October feel.:D

After a few warm days Eps mean has a 3 day stretch Sunday through Tuesday in the 70s here . Would be real nice imo.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

My VP2 is down but it's really cool out this am . Probably low mid 40s guessing.  October feel.:D

After a few warm days Eps mean has a 3 day stretch Sunday through Tuesday in the 70s here . Would be real nice imo.

Maybe the general h5 look we have seen with the mean ridge to our west can hold into summer. Would definitely reduce the episodes of prolonged extreme heat if nothing else.

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25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

48F this morning.  Last 40s until September, or can we get another this month?

Try Thanksgiving.

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Outstanding past 24 hours. For those screaming for 'normal', last two days and today is for you.

A slightly chilly start here, 42.5 currently, low was 41.8. NO WHERE near record of 33 in 1984, AKA as the year of no or very later 'maters, as we had back to back very frosty 33 degree lows on 5/31 and 6/1 1984.

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FYI in case this wasn't posted earlier:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1053 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2020

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

...SUSPENSION OF OBSERVATIONS AT NWS AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATION
SYSTEM AT BALTIMORE MD INNER HARBOR... 

THE NWS HAS BEEN NOTIFIED THAT CONSTRUCTION AFFECTING THE GROUNDS
AROUND THE NWS AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATION SYSTEM (ASOS)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (KDMH) IS PROGRESSING, AND OUR EQUIPMENT
NEEDS TO BE REMOVED FOR A TIME. 

THE SUSPENSION OF KDMH OBSERVATIONS IS SCHEDULED TO BEGIN ON
TUESDAY JUNE 2, 2020. DATA WILL BE LISTED AS MISSING IN THE DAILY
CLIMATE REPORT (CLIDMH) AND PRELIMINARY MONTHLY CLIMATE DATA
(CF6DMH). WE WILL PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESTORATION OF 
THE EQUIPMENT AND OBSERVATION WHEN WE RECEIVE IT FROM THE 
CONSTRUCTION COMPANY. 

CONSTRUCTION AT JOSEPH H. RASH MEMORIAL PARK ON BALTIMORE'S INNER
HARBOR WILL IMPACT THE NWS AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATION SYSTEM 
(ASOS) BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR MARYLAND (KDMH) STATION LOCATED 
THERE. TO ALLOW FOR SITE WORK, THE KDMH ASOS SENSORS NEED TO BE 
REMOVED AND STORED UNTIL CONSTRUCTION IS COMPLETED. AFTER THE 
CONSTRUCTION IS COMPLETED, KDMH WILL BE RE-ESTABLISHED WITHIN RASH
MEMORIAL PARK. 

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Looking like this summer could be another summer where New England gets spared from the HHH, while NYC south roasts. This month especially. Ridge moves east but it doesn't quite reach New England because of persistent troughing over Newfoundland. 

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3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Looking like this summer could be another summer where New England gets spared from the HHH, while NYC south roasts. This month especially. Ridge moves east but it doesn't quite reach New England.

Wonder if early to mid June develops a deeper - NAO than currently forecasted. . Wave breaking ongoing. There were several episodes last spring continuing into early to mid summer  where similar dives occurred.  

By July and August to have any real cooling effects it has to be  recording breaking. 

The SST cold pool is there again up North,  and according to bluewave it  is displaced further South than last spring. 

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Of note, related to a post a few days back form HM, and also mentioned this AM. by bluewave.

The potential blocking pattern down the road. i.e. heat may be displaced further South,  and also thoughts about eventual ridge runners in a NW flow.  

 

BFF8E66A-B38E-4ED2-91A7-19E4160A5B83.thumb.png.fa037721da5e2a5ffe8e45b1c5c204de.png

 

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4indices.png

sustained -PNA with -NAO.. Big trough in the west is forcing a strong ridge in the central and eastern US. -NAO in summer actually means heat, instead of cold like it does in the winter. Any cold shots are going to be brief before HHH returns.

Seven day SST change in the North Atlantic is showing minor warming of the waters, just off the east coast, due to the previous warm up last week. Another, stronger warm-up starting today will likely cause a return of warmer than normal anomalies replacing the cold blob. Most of the coldest anomalies are farther north in Newfoundland and south of Greenland. 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_atl_1.png

 

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30 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

-NAO in summer actually means heat, instead of cold like it does in the winter. Any cold shots are going to be brief before HHH returns.

Agreed, but last year, due in part due to the cold pool and other factors there were a couple very deep NAO episodes that brought a refreshing air mass that lasted about 24 to 36 hours, even though it was summer. I believe the one in August was very robust and broke a record for - SD . But yes, run of the mill - NAO in summer is a warmth signal. 

The flip is on as you mention. The cold pool although initially more  Southern displaced may be breaking up and warming. An ominous sign for the hurricane season and long lasting heat and humidity possibly.  

Some buoys off the Mid Atlantic Coast have risen nicely the last 8 days. Look for more in the next week.   

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Day 9 image not available

 

Also a marginal risk for excessive rain for day 3 across our region. Stalled front, high PWATs. and flow aloft parallel to the front. Could be some training storms. This could all very well fall apart, and there is still disagreement among guidance as to where exactly the front ends up stalling, but there is the potential for 1-3 inches of rain "some place" within our region.

My confidence level? Sprinkler is currently on.

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27 minutes ago, nj2va said:

1st heatwave of the summer coming up in Arlington.  95 tomorrow, 91 Thursday, 90 Friday.  

Hopefully it stays there :whistle:

Eps mean for KDMW:

Wed 89

Thursday 83

Fri 84

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15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Hopefully it stays there :whistle:

Eps mean for KDMW:

Wed 89

Thursday 83

Fri 84

I’ve got my industrial sized fans pointed north to send all this hot air your way.  :maphot:

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15 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’ve got my industrial sized fans pointed north to send all this hot air your way.  :maphot:

Need an Electrician to wire em up:whistle:

 

I might know one...

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43 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

If June 3rd is the first 90 degree day, I’m ok with it 

That first ice  cold brew after the first HHH day of the summer  is the best of the year imo.

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Was hoping Yellowstone would erupt before our first 90 to give us a summer without heat.  It would have been so 2020 and there is still a chance.

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6 minutes ago, H2O said:

Was hoping Yellowstone would erupt before our first 90 to give us a summer without heat.  It would have been so 2020 and there is still a chance.

If there's any year for @Bob Chill's Cat 5 up the Bay, it's this one.

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After the beautiful and perfect past 3/4 days, only way to properly describe this morning is Y U C K. Already 68.3/62.8 at 7 am. BLAH, Roanoke was 77 at 7 am!!! NUTS. Supposed to be 88 here today. I want a rewind to Saturday please. But on a serious note, it was a wonderfully cool May, so one month of the HHH was tossed. :)

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Even though it's just 73 out right now, you can just tell it's gonna be a hot one.  Hoping for thunderstorms tomorrow.

Speaking of "HHH" -- I noticed last summer that the hazy "H" was missing on a lot of hot days.  Air seemed clearer.  I remember those HHH days back in the 80s when the sky and air had that milky appearance.  Yuk.

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