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George BM

June Discobs 2020

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18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

There are some storms firing up now in southern/eastern areas with the juice still in place. Looks to be scattered/isolated though. Probably be pretty intense for places that get under one though.

I noticed one east of DC a lil while ago . Probably 0% chance here . Which I'm good with...I'm headed out in the GN cruisin :bike:

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I noticed one east of DC a lil while ago . Probably 0% chance here . Which I'm good with...I'm headed out in the GN cruisin :bike:

Nice!

Next few days will be perfect for taking the hot rod out and laying down some rubber. :D

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Feels like June.  The humidity could be lower especially if it's not going to rain!

And last night, for the first time I saw fireflies.  I have to say this is the latest I've seen them first.

Here is the view facing south.  That boomer near Calvert Cliffs isn't visible from this view.  I need to move the PTZ higher on the tower. ;)

Screen Shot 2020-06-06 at 5.22.11 PM.png

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Where did THIS come from!?! One heck of an electrical storm going on here now. Last I saw of forecast discussion from NWS Blacksburg at noon was they were gonna put a SMALL chance of storms to the east (of Lynchburg) due to a coupe models showing that possibility. Nothing for here. Now under a warning and it is a rockin'!

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Somewhat dated, but cool for the folks up North , just missed our Northern areas. 

 

 

 

 

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From Don S. tonight.

I was not aware of the current SOI crash and the potential implications for later this month. 

<

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June month. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East.

>

 

 

 

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This morning was 57 here.  What I wouldn't give for a morning like this in mid August. 

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51 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Another perfect morning in the garden. Sunny and 60. Looks like the sprinklers will be busy this week.

Do you water your lawn or other areas?  I tried last year watering the lawn and lost my ambition and suffered the consequences. This year I will let it go dormant and hope rains visit at least to keep the crown alive so in the Fall it may bounce back. I have 3/4 acres far too much to water. Even the front with 1/3 acre is too much to consistently water correctly. 

And yes, the rainfall forecasts have trended drier. 

    p168i.gif?1591618344

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Gfs and GGEM have some good rainfall this week with the frontal passage. Euro is much less impressed. May be due to the timing of FROPA. Gfs has it Wednesday afternoon and evening, supporting storms. Ggem the same but 18-24 hrs later, while euro splits the difference so no instability Thursday morning.

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1 hour ago, frd said:

Do you water your lawn or other areas?  I tried last year watering the lawn and lost my ambition and suffered the consequences. This year I will let it go dormant and hope rains visit at least to keep the crown alive so in the Fall it may bounce back. I have 3/4 acres far too much to water. Even the front with 1/3 acre is too much to consistently water correctly. 

And yes, the rainfall forecasts have trended drier. 

    p168i.gif?1591618344

I've got a 60×50' fenced in garden. I also have a 40×50' corn plot. The corn plots need consistent watering. I don't care about my grass. My corn is the only grass on property I care about lol. 

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16 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Trying to figure this out but looks like 18 degree drop in 3.5 hours here and 18 at IAD in 4 hours, 

Was it the addition or the subtraction that had you stumped?

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44 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Corpus Christi Airport (KCRP) enjoying low 90s with dews in the low 80s :yikes:

Nasty lol. A couple years ago I was working down by Martin State Airport in middle river and I believe the 12 noon reading was 94/86 . Highest dew I've ever seen and actually worked out in . We went home at noon :frostymelt:. The most  God awful day I can remember at work .

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High of 80 here.

73 currently. Extremely nice evening.

Mid to upper 80s the rest of the week but doesn't look too awfully humid. Some random storm chances too it appears.

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Early next week looks a tad interesting with upper level energy dropping in and getting pinched off as ridging builds to the north. All 3 major globals have the same idea, and ofc the GFS drives it well south under crushing HP.

@losetoa6

Latest EPS still have some members with biblical rains?

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23 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Another beautiful June morning and heavy dew on the lawn. 59.

Yeah very nice. Was 57 when I got up. Looks like it might push 90 here this afternoon.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Early next week looks a tad interesting with upper level energy dropping in and getting pinched off as ridging builds to the north. All 3 major globals have the same idea, and ofc the GFS drives it well south under crushing HP.

@losetoa6

Latest EPS still have some members with biblical rains?

We lost that one member lol ...but overall Eps is trending wetter for early next week. 

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

We lost that one member lol ...but overall Eps is trending wetter for early next week. 

And just like that, our weather forecast has easterly flow diarrhea returning with a vengeance after a vacation next week. Couldn't get more garbage than this for heat lovers like me.

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1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

And just like that, our weather forecast has easterly flow diarrhea returning with a vengeance after a vacation next week. Couldn't get more garbage than this for heat lovers like me.

disgusting.  low clouds, drizzle, and muck.  hard pass.

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3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Early next week looks a tad interesting with upper level energy dropping in and getting pinched off as ridging builds to the north. All 3 major globals have the same idea, and ofc the GFS drives it well south under crushing HP.

@losetoa6

Latest EPS still have some members with biblical rains?

GFS didn't have the last cutoff modeled well and the Euro was more correct with dominating HP to the north.  Now watch the GFS be right after learning its lesson.

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