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June Discobs 2020

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18 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Looks quite tropical for the end of weekend into next week on the models.....wet, wet, wet!

GFS is a soaker through HR 252, but we've seen scenario play out all spring - it looks wet long range but then goes poof inside of HR 60.

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1 hour ago, WVclimo said:

Heavy rain missed my yard by about 3 miles as it approached from the SW and then scooted by to the west and northwest.   Nice gusty winds at least knocked back the heat.

Looks like I will be watering this evening.

A pop up storm with booming thunder is now dropping rain 3 miles to my east, lol.  

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Uhhh been working non-stop since March and was looking forward to Ocean City, MD 6/15 thru 6/18.  Looks like lots of rain  :(

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

GFS is a soaker through HR 252, but we've seen scenario play out all spring - it looks wet long range but then goes poof inside of HR 60.

Just a tad wetter than its previous runs.

At least for one run, it appears to have completely folded to the Euro idea at h5. Awful model.

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00z GFS continues with a wet week upcoming with potential flooding... through next Tuesday night... 6 to what looks like 10 inches for parts of N VA and C MD lol

gfs_apcpn_neus_24.thumb.png.6e36de40d19d7aa6be2700db02299457.png

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00z CMC similar... but not to the extent of the GFS with that megaband lol... still, 2 to 4 inches of rain

gem_apcpn_neus_24.thumb.png.ac6a0bbe3f980b56cc25fc4a405cbc80.png

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0.25” overnight. Let’s see if that skinny little line west of the metro areas expands this morning...

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Gfs drops a foot of rain on Baltimore next week lol. Euro a good bit south with the heavy stuff. The ull local is definitely key and Euro takes it into SC giving central Va the heaviest qpf . The Eps doesn't agree and keeps the ull up on the NC -Va border. 

Another heavy downpour rolled through here ...no t+l.

Close to an inch total since last night 

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Almost 3/4 inch from the various storms from yesterday afternoon thru overnight here. .40 fell in 30 minutes, and .30 of THAT in 10 minutes in first storm around 3:30 pm.

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Looks like some scattered showers on radar this morning. Glad I ran the sprinklers on my corn last night. Only ended up with .05" from a shower overnight. HRRR gives my area east of DC more storms today. Not so much west of the city.

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7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

This upcoming system appears to have broken the Euro.  There is a spot north of Williamsburg, VA that is progged to get 20" of rain on Monday.

 

Incredible amounts for sure, the WPC seems to concur to a degree, and trend the last 6 days has been to bring some heavier rains a bit further North and East. 

Middle of country really drying out,  and wondering whether that heat comes up and over later in the period.    

 

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If the Euro seasonal for July  is correct wonder if during the transition this this pattern, as well as during oscillations,  we share in more frequent moisture, and frontal passages during the this coming July.     

 

20200611_064415.jpg

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I'll eat my hat if the GFS rainfall forecast even comes close to verifying on locations and amount. That would be a 500 year storm for these parts.

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These showers popping up don’t individually last long, but they are fully washers. Had 0.1” in under 10mins.

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'll eat my hat if the GFS rainfall forecast even comes close to verifying on locations and amount. That would be a 500 year storm for these parts.

I don't know about 12 inches but if the ull cuts off for days  in  a conducive spot ...along with typical  good moisture flow / pwats especially being summer time I'd think several inches would be on the table.  Orograhic lift will also be in play for Blue ridge and even Parrs.

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I don't know about 12 inches but if the ull cuts off for days  in  a conducive spot ...along with typical  good moisture flow / pwats especially being summer time I'd think several inches would be on the table.  Orograhic lift will also be in play for Blue ridge and even Parrs.

GFS ENS is 5" which means the OP isn't on it's own, but I'd like to know if there's a place you can view Euro OP/ENS rainfall that is night behind a paywall.

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14 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

After this line pushes east, no more rain for the day? Wanna put the skis in the water for tomorrow

Correct. 

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Just now, AmericanWxFreak said:

Thanks, and damn just saw some of these progs for next week - so we have the GFS and Euro showing stupid amounts of rain, huh? 

I haven't seen Euro guidance for rainfall.  So far this spring and early summer it appears that numerical guidance has vastly over estimated rainfall in the medium term. We've had several instances where up to 3 or even 4 inches of rain was forecast and the area wound up with less than an inch. Until we're inside 24 hours, I'm largely ignoring the guidance.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

I haven't seen Euro guidance for rainfall.  So far this spring and early summer it appears that numerical guidance has vastly over estimated rainfall in the medium term. We've had several instances where up to 3 or even 4 inches of rain was forecast and the area wound up with less than an inch. Until we're inside 24 hours, I'm largely ignoring the guidance.

Gotcha, and that makes sense, I have noticed the over modeling of liquid this season also - well see how it plays out tho!

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