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Rtd208

May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Will we have a continuation of the cooler and wet pattern we have been in? It looks like it.

Post them here.

the local mets keep talking about this warm up starting in early May (70s over the weekend), why cant that last?

Also, since storms move from west to east, why cant heat move from west to east too (like that heat thats just starting up in California.)

 

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8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

the local mets keep talking about this warm up starting in early May (70s over the weekend), why cant that last?

Also, since storms move from west to east, why cant heat move from west to east too (like that heat thats just starting up in California.)

 

There's a transient ridge that allows warmer air to come in but general blockiness out west means any ridging will be temporary. 

In fact the ridging in the west will only intensify which means the trough in the east will get deeper after May 4th.  

Also seeing ridging in EPO/AO/NAO regions as well which will only reinforce the cooler/stormy pattern. 

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On 4/28/2020 at 12:40 AM, SnoSki14 said:

There's a transient ridge that allows warmer air to come in but general blockiness out west means any ridging will be temporary. 

In fact the ridging in the west will only intensify which means the trough in the east will get deeper after May 4th.  

Also seeing ridging in EPO/AO/NAO regions as well which will only reinforce the cooler/stormy pattern. 

this belongs in the winter not now lol.  I am seeing some unpleasant years (for spring and summer) showing up in analogs, like 1996.  I wonder if this increases the chances of a wetter and more humid summer coming up with not much dry weather or heat.  High lows, low highs, lots of humidity and rain ugh.

 

The worst part is not having 2-3 sunny days in a row.  I dont mind cool weather as long as it's sunny and dry.  Whats causing all this storminess instead of just having cool highs drop in from the north and block storms to our west and south?  Is that where the hot Gulf of Mexico factors in?

 

 

 

 

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When was the last time we had a spring with below to well below normal temperatures but also below average precipitation? That's probably a very rare combination, particularly in April and May.

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April ended at  -2.7[50.4].

The first 8 days of May  are averaging 58degs., or 1deg. BN.

May 1-17 are averaging 56degs., or about 4.5degs. BN----GFS OP---while the ENS is a ridiculous 49degs., or about 11.5degs. BN!.        I am going to have to recalculate that one.              Even nuttier, it has Cleveland in the 20's in mid-May!

But for the record note>>>>>>                 MAY NORMAL   62.4        COLDEST   54.3 (-8.1)       10th PLACE     58.4 (-4.0)

54* here at 6am, wet.      57* by 11am.         60* by 1pm.        Got to 61* before 4pm with sun shinning, now a Fog and the upper 50's.       Worst storm is now (4:15pm) south of Perth Amboy  NJ.       More misses to the south.      T shot up to 67* at 7pm.

 

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Morning thoughts...

This weekend, the temperature could reach or exceed 70 degrees in New York City for the first time since March 20 when the thermometer topped out at 77 degrees. April’s monthly maximum temperature was just 68 degrees. That was the coldest April maximum temperature and the first one in the 60s since April 1940 when the monthly high temperature was 67 degrees.

However beyond the coming weekend, the generally cool pattern that predominated in April will likely reassert itself. Generally cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through at least the first half of May, which should set the stage for a cooler than normal May in the region.

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Hopefully we can still get a nice Sunday as it looks like we will deal with rain in the morning 

C103342D-8329-4ECA-BFF9-EA35A905D3E3.png

F2CF4AAE-D6F3-42BF-9DB0-4CEAE948128A.png

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3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ridiculous GFS run for 1st half of May. Record lows would be likely.

Check out the euro 

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1 hour ago, SI Mailman said:

getting some thunder here on the south shore of SI.

On the Euro NYC would likely comes close to their record lows on 5/9 and 5/10 of 35 and 36.. The all timer is not out of reach here if we get the right setup.  Its too far out to determine but if we did get a coastal and had enough of a gradient with strong CAA 32 is not out of the question given the -AO/NAO

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16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

On the Euro NYC would likely comes close to their record lows on 5/9 and 5/10 of 35 and 36.. The all timer is not out of reach here if we get the right setup.  Its too far out to determine but if we did get a coastal and had enough of a gradient with strong CAA 32 is not out of the question given the -AO/NAO

Blockbuster type pattern had it been Nov-March. Even early to mid April it would've been good. 

Models could be overdoing the amplification though but I do think we'll see some 30s before mid May. 

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Blockbuster type pattern had it been Nov-March. Even early to mid April it would've been good. 

Models could be overdoing the amplification though but I do think we'll see some 30s before mid May. 

The GFS/Euro wanted it to dig more 2-3 days ago taking the cold down into the TN Valley/SE region.  That really is not realistic in May as most of those areas see their final FROPAs til September around this time.  I think it'll be centered mostly DCA and north.

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Feels weird actually seeing 70’s in the forecast.

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Clouds broke this afternoon. As a result, temperatures rose quickly into the middle 60s. This weekend could see readings in the 70s across much of the region. Two photos from this evening:

Larchmont05012020-1.jpg

Larchmont05012020-3.jpg

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May began with a continuation of the cooler than normal weather that prevailed in April. However, as the system responsible for the recent rain and clouds departed, temperatures spurted into the middle 60s late in the day.

Unlike the system earlier in the week, the most recent storm largely delivered the 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts as had been modeled. Two-day rainfall amounts included:

Albany: 0.67"; Allentown: 1.02"; Binghamton: 1.63"; Bridgeport: 1.09"; Harrisburg: 1.55"; Islip: 0.91"; New York City: 0.91"; Newark: 0.59"; Philadelphia: 0.34"; Poughkeepsie: 1.09"; and, Scranton: 1.06".

A notably warmer weekend is in store. Readings could soar into the 70s in New York City and even southern New England, especially on Sunday. The last time Central Park hit 70° or above was on March 20 when the thermometer reached 77°.

Nevertheless, the milder conditions will likely be short-lived. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 2.5° to as much as 5.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Moderation may commence near mid-month.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during May.

The SOI has seen an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool.

The SOI was +0.02 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.685.

On April 30, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.605 (RMM). The April 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.751.

The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer.

 

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Clouds broke this afternoon. As a result, temperatures rose quickly into the middle 60s. This weekend could see readings in the 70s across much of the region. Two photos from this evening:

Larchmont05012020-1.jpg

E

Considering the present reality, both photos are very comforting, well done and thank you. As always ....

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5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Photo # 2

This is one of the most beautiful photos I've ever seen you capture and post. Thank you don, and stay healthy my friend :) 

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The next 8 days are averaging 57degs., or about 2.5degs. BN.

String of 16 BN days broken yesterday.     Tomorrow's 75+ may not be equaled till mid-May.    Meanwhile one or more lows in the 30's may occur.

Firs,t cancel that 75 for tomorrow.         GFS OP      May 2-18:       55.5  or -5.0       GFS ENS.    50.5  or -10.0.       The bottom is about May 10.        The last 10 days of May are probably going to have a super +++Rebound or we are going to have the first coldest month ever since Feb. 1934.        Who knows, a few days ago Barrow, Alaska set its first daily record low in 13 years!

52* here at 6am.       56* at 9am.      62* by 11am.        70* by 2:15pm.         72* at 3:15pm.

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7 hours ago, rclab said:

Considering the present reality, both photos are very comforting, well done and thank you. As always ....

Thanks. I hope thing change soon.

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5 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

This is one of the most beautiful photos I've ever seen you capture and post. Thank you don, and stay healthy my friend :) 

Thanks. Stay healthy, too.

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Finally getting some more spring-like 70’s this weekend. Models hinting at the first May 30’s in NYC since the 1970’s next weekend. This would mean an unusually late freeze for some outlying areas if it verifies.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1977 36 0
2 1978 38 0
- 1976 38 0
- 1970 38 0

25617C3C-463C-4828-9129-C70CB8FD67C1.thumb.png.6e736f09747fa754cf5af43dcbff12a6.png

 

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Finally getting some more spring-like 70’s this weekend. Models hinting at the first May 30’s in NYC since the 1970’s next weekend. This would mean an unusually late freeze for some outlying areas if it verifies.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1977 36 0
2 1978 38 0
- 1976 38 0
- 1970 38 0

25617C3C-463C-4828-9129-C70CB8FD67C1.thumb.png.6e736f09747fa754cf5af43dcbff12a6.png

 

B.W., that was a rather cold period, I was a letter carrier at the time. Some pundits were predicting the beginning of the next ice age. It raised the awareness of the terminal moraine in Prospect Park, Brooklyn. Come to think of it, all of Long Island might be considered one. Some end of the world, as we know it, climate science fiction came out, as a result. One was the The Seventh Winter, great story, it even had snow tornadoes. Science reality now takes over from science fiction as we anticipate the possibility of the first coastal snowless winter. As always .....

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44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Finally getting some more spring-like 70’s this weekend. Models hinting at the first May 30’s in NYC since the 1970’s next weekend. This would mean an unusually late freeze for some outlying areas if it verifies.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1977 36 0
2 1978 38 0
- 1976 38 0
- 1970 38 0

25617C3C-463C-4828-9129-C70CB8FD67C1.thumb.png.6e736f09747fa754cf5af43dcbff12a6.png

 

Early May is when I usually plant the warmer weather crops in my garden like tomatoes. I've done that for many years and have never had a problem, and I was looking forward to doing that in the next few days. But I'm a little concerned about the cold shot next weekend. Right now the long range stuff is indicating low temps in the mid to upper 30s for my area next weekend, which would be just above frost level but too close for comfort. Just a couple degrees lower than that and there could be a big problem. So I'm wondering if I should delay until after that. I've never waited until mid May to plant tomatoes before and that would be a bit frustrating, but thinking I might have to this year.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Finally getting some more spring-like 70’s this weekend. Models hinting at the first May 30’s in NYC since the 1970’s next weekend. This would mean an unusually late freeze for some outlying areas if it verifies.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1977 36 0
2 1978 38 0
- 1976 38 0
- 1970 38 0

25617C3C-463C-4828-9129-C70CB8FD67C1.thumb.png.6e736f09747fa754cf5af43dcbff12a6.png

 

1976 comes after a early heat wave in mid April...1976 is the latest 38 or low for so late in the season...1977 came after the earliest 90 degree day in April...about a week or two later it was back in the 90's...1978 came on the first...it too saw 90's later in the month...1970 had a 90 degree day a few days later...

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Beauty out there 68 so far.  Back into the dinginess next 10 days.  Looking like till later part of May for a  possible transition into less troughing in the east.  2008 feel to me, ended the cool with a resounding heatwave.  

 

 

 

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