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weatherwiz

May Discussion

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31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sell any and all bitter cold . That will surely modify and is Euro playing usual over amp nonsense. It’ll end up a day of 65-70 in SNE with 70’s thereafter until reheat June 8.

There'll be a trough rollin' out this air mass ...

Indeterminate heat around our particular geography is almost never going to happen anyway.  

3 days ...?  yeah, it'll be time, anyway, when that front comes through to end the laze faire warmth party. 

I agree that the Euro is too deep with that sudden inordinate looking bobbing downward in latitude with the trough as I outlined/annotated above. A flatter/progressive correction...  Won't shock me if Sunday is a breezy and 74 with d-slope DPs around 33 by 4 or 5 in the afternoon.

 

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31 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Euro is the most 'rhea-y of the modeling. Hopefully the majority of the rhea is overnight Friday and early Saturday morning with the FROPA. Neither Friday or Saturday looks like a washout. At least in ern areas. 

Sat could be a sneaky downslope dandy if the front clears in the morning. Euro has lingering 850s around 10-12C and west flow

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Just now, wx2fish said:

Sat could be a sneaky downslope dandy if the front clears in the morning. Euro has lingering 850s around 10C and west flow

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if Saturday is the crappier of the two days. If we can sneak out a dry Friday afternoon and evening I'll be thrilled.

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

94F at IZG and 75F at DCA.....lol

18 years ago IZG touched 90 in early May then had about 2" snow a week after.  They may approach 32 Monday/Tuesday mornings - what a whipsaw!  Places like IZG and BML remind me of Chester, MA before the station's hot and cold records were tossed due to improper siting/recording.  Prior to that action, one of my favorite items of wx trivia was that station holding the state record for both hottest and coldest temp, set less than 10 years apart.

Cloud free and well into the 80s here while the western Whites have flood warnings.  Can we do a 2017 repeat, when the year's 8 warmest days all fell outside of calendar summer?  3 came post-equinox, 4 in pre-solstice June, only one in May but it was the hottest of all  by 4F.

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15 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Sat could be a sneaky downslope dandy if the front clears in the morning. Euro has lingering 850s around 10-12C and west flow

I could see most of us not getting much rain , if any . Bertha subsidence and no dynamics . 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that breaks their all time record of 92F....though their period of record only started in 1998. Still impressive though considering the date.

I see BTV has SLK "area" as a max of 94F.... NOWdata has a 94F back in 1911 for "Saranac Lake area" for May.  Must be some ThreadEx stations in that area.

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33 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Scheduling a lunch for a late spring afternoon during prime t'storm time and into prime t'storm season... a pay load that ultimately represents a propaganda marketing ploy for a billionaire's eventual take over of NASA - given time to marinade...

Yeah agreed...

NASA was founded by/for a set of virtues after the mid century space race only made it look like that was happening - but that was a farce and facade that masked one of the three real faces of the Cold War.  Those being, nuclear stock-piling, the Cuban Missile Crises, and the Afghan conflict with the Soviets ( which led inexorably to the Taliban if one knows their world history...) 

For a few decades, it was then operated by principled idea of space/science exploration .. slowly eroding ... pretty much no longer exists. They've arrived to a scenario where circumstances ( less economic appropriations ) means they either severely limit the operation down to irrelevancy ... or, partner with privatization - enters Elan Musk.  ....and in 40 ..50, 60 years ( if perhaps optimistic...) we can work it out so that these seeds grow a reality that really is like "Ellysium"'s orbiting ring-world of utopia for the wealthiest ...and the other 99% lives below with half the life expectancy on a diet of dead cats and sewer water on a planet that roasts in GW and the stench of countless extinct species... Oh, and these rat "landers" are still conned into voting for Trumps -

Speculation is so much fun ...

Real space science is now lost on Americans and probably the rest of western civility ...a latter distinction that is blurred anyway. Industry is dumbing-down mankind, pacifying the species  with easier access to living, lost urgency ... a confederacy of idiots. 

It's what happens...  Lost humility in desperate times leads to positive inventions, both social and physical, because there is need to make life better for all, utilizing both ... Society succeeds in doing so, life gets easier... apathy takes over across successive generations... and sloth and decay take over once again.

It's happened in every civility since the beginning of... Cyclic -  ... 

Now this may seem heavy-handed with moral this and that, but, ...I don't like the privatization of cutting edge technology - that usually doesn't end well for the provincials ;)

 

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21 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Sat could be a sneaky downslope dandy if the front clears in the morning. Euro has lingering 850s around 10-12C and west flow

Also can't rule out potential for a strong/severe storm across SE New England...especially along any sea-breeze. 

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Also can't rule out potential for a strong/severe storm across SE New England...especially along any sea-breeze. 

Don’t get SEMA hopes up. They’ve been let down all too often with faux severe threats. 

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Don’t get SEMA hopes up. They’ve been let down all too often with faux severe threats. 

That's b/c they get excited for setups which favor NY/PA into western New England lol. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

See my response to dendrite on that one:

 

That’s it!  We were in the old stage deli on Boylston street and the 57 afternoon temperature was being pimped on tv.   Awful period!

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I think Mount Mansfield/MMNV1 just set it's All-Time Max temperature for ANY MONTH, not just May. 

They have an 85F in there.  The old record of 84F was from June 1999 and July 2018.

We avoided any clouds and thunderstorms so far..... Mount Washington hit 66F (their May record) but then had Thunder and clouds that looked like it capped heating.

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15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Don’t get SEMA hopes up. They’ve been let down all too often with faux severe threats. 

All three MA tornadoes last year were on the Cape I believe 

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

96 in Montreal and high of 79 in NYC, WTF

not complaining :)

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

These aren’t even uber 850 temps either. Must be good mixing. 

Yeah it's a little odd but so many places were so hot, a bunch of the mountain valley ASOS's recorded their highest temps since they were installed.  A bunch of May records broken and even some anytime of year records.

I don't have records for Whiteface, NY but up at around 5,000ft the graph looks like it hit 79F or 80F.  That's insane for that elevation.  Just like Mansfield 1,000ft lower and MWN before the storms.

That's probably how SLK can hit 93F at almost 1,700ft.  That's some huge elevation to get 93F at, but 80F up at 5,000ft probably does it.

wfsummit.thumb.jpg.c7cdb488e7e032cafb5b055348de1b3a.jpg

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe good mixing and limited canopy helping the heat?

Here's the 18z HRRR for BTV...mixing up to nearly 750!

image.png.cea3e5f41bfdc1b6c84997b052655933.png

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Down to 84 out.  Was outside for a few minutes and the house felt like an AC was on when I came back in.  Glad the dews are not too bad yet.

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59 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Don’t get SEMA hopes up. They’ve been let down all too often with faux severe threats. 

Where’s flow coming from?  Any flow from the S will kill storms E of PVD.  Our best severe events are westerly and north westerly flow ones.

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Worcester's 1.7" of rainfall this month would put it 6th currently as the driest May on record. Will see what the remainder of the week brings. Average is ~4.2" for reference. No where near record in 2015. Hartford's 1.6" this month also gives that station a shot at a top 10 driest May on record.

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5 minutes ago, Newman said:

Worcester's 1.7" of rainfall this month would put it 6th currently as the driest May on record. Will see what the remainder of the week brings. Average is ~4.2" for reference. No where near record in 2015. Hartford's 1.6" this month also gives that station a shot at a top 10 driest May on record.

Drought incoming much to  @moneypitmike dismay 

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