Damage In Tolland Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I'm just going to lock in the Euro now wow.. I need this right now to take my mind off the crap I've been dealing with.. Haven’t you been back at work for a few weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Wonder why the Kuchie maps are even higher? They should be punishing the amounts for the sfc temps being slightly above freezing. In fact, the Kuchera algorithm starts punishing temps above 28F. Is it because they are just factoring in mid levels and not surface temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Haven’t you been back at work for a few weeks? Not until wednesday.. been covid the last couple weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its lower here on the edge. Those totals looks south at 12z to me. Yeah, trimmed a bit on northern edge. 12z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 I’ll take a two incher to the backside, no problemo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 16, 2020 Author Share Posted April 16, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: Is it because they are just factoring in mid levels and not surface temps? No, the Kuchera formula is actually not that complicated...it takes the max temp in the column between and if it's greater than 271K (basically 28F), the formula is ratio = 12 + 2(271K - Tmax)....so if the max temp is like 33F, you'd have ratio = 12 + 2 (271 - 274) = 12 - 6 = 6...so we should get like a 6 to 1 ratio if a Tmax of 33F....if it's 32F, then maybe like 8 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 16, 2020 Author Share Posted April 16, 2020 Some of the 00z snow maps had last night factored in...there was several hundreths of weenie snow this morning that don't appear on the 12z totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: No, the Kuchera formula is actually not that complicated...it takes the max temp in the column between and if it's greater than 271K (basically 28F), the formula is ratio = 12 + 2(271K - Tmax)....so if the max temp is like 33F, you'd have ratio = 12 + 2 (271 - 274) = 12 - 6 = 6...so we should get like a 6 to 1 ratio if a Tmax of 33F....if it's 32F, then maybe like 8 to 1. Gotcha. Thank you for that explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 I'll go 1-3" from I84 points north to the NH border, with 4"+ lollis in southern ORH hills and NE CT/NW RI hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Some of the 00z snow maps had last night factored in...there was several hundreths of weenie snow this morning that don't appear on the 12z totals. Good point....matters north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: solid map, except not sure why the 3-4 around my area/Bedford.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 59 minutes ago, weathafella said: Not this time. Weenie map was worse . You got me this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 I figure about .5" for me (if that) to cap of this dismal winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Straight HREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Hoping to cap off this winter with an inch or two living in a lower elevation sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Hoping to cap off this winter with an inch or two living in a lower elevation sucks Just shoot the bow at things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 That ECM run looked like a great run for NCT and SMA counties along I-90 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 1 hour ago, PowderBeard said: Pretty bullish for NWS BOX. They’ve done OK with Western New England this year so let’s go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 16, 2020 Author Share Posted April 16, 2020 Soundings def have a massive crosshair sig on them during the initial thump....there's going to be good snow growth I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Slight tick south on 18z NAM (10miles?)..but still looks a bit north of euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 16, 2020 Author Share Posted April 16, 2020 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: Slight tick south on 18z NAM (10miles?)..but still looks a bit north of euro Yes....subtle south shift. As expected. Too far north at 12z. Looks closer to 06z again albeit more zonked on QPF. Prob not realistic on the widespread 0.75-1.0" QPF in MA/CT/RI, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 That initial thump is real I think. All models have it. It's possible this is like a 4 hr thump with lighter junk after. Like 80% falls in 4 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Soundings def have a massive crosshair sig on them during the initial thump....there's going to be good snow growth I think. Good snow growth with 32-34F surface temps can get some fun flakes.... good dendrites going the aggregate route can lead to some good vis reduction too. Much more efficient accums on warm ground surfaces than throwing a bunch of melting needles/columns through the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: That initial thump is real I think. All models have it. It's possible this is like a 4 hr thump with lighter junk after. Like 80% falls in 4 hrs. Timing? Do I need to set the alarm clock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Soundings def have a massive crosshair sig on them during the initial thump....there's going to be good snow growth I think. I noticed that on the NAM and GFS. Nice look for areas that can chill the boundary layer sufficiently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 NAM IS NICE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Timing? Do I need to set the alarm clock? Maybe by 11ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 16, 2020 Author Share Posted April 16, 2020 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Timing? Do I need to set the alarm clock? You might just be able to stay up for it...it's prob like 11pm-3am out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 The 3K NAM has a huge thump. Very close here too..but probably need it a shade colder. Looks great interior SEmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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