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April 2020


donsutherland1

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latest snowflakes seen for NYC in recent years...

4/23.....trace in 1963 and 1986...1986 accumulated a little in colder spots...1963 had IP's...

4/24.....trace in 1967...snow and rain mixed...

4/27.....trace in 1967...rain and snow mixed...

5/9...….trace in 1977...snow mixes in with rain...

5/27.....trace in 1961...IP's reported at LGA...could have been hail with temps in the low to mid 40's...

near misses in May.....

1963

1966

1967

2002

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9 minutes ago, uncle W said:

latest snowflakes seen for NYC...

4/23.....trace in 1963 and 1986...1986 accumulated a little in colder spots...1963 had IP's...

4/24.....trace in 1967...snow and rain mixed...

4/27.....trace in 1967...rain and snow mixed...

5/9...….trace in 1977...snow mixes in with rain...

5/27.....trace in 1961...IP's reported at LGA...could have been hail with temps in the low to mid 40's...

near misses in May.....

1963

1966

1967

2002

I've noticed on some pages NWS shows traces of snow in the closing days of May at LGA and JFK. I always assumed it was some clerical error or hail. Record lows range from 41 to 50 on the dubious dates.

 

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26 minutes ago, dWave said:

I've noticed on some pages NWS shows traces of snow in the closing days of May at LGA and JFK. I always assumed it was some clerical error or hail. Record lows range from 41 to 50 on the dubious dates.

 

I don't remember 1961 but I do remember 1967...that year NYC just missed snow on 5/25...I saw wet snow mixed with rain earlier in May 67...May 67 is the second coldest of all time...

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25 minutes ago, ny10019 said:

was walking the dogs in Central Park this morning when the flurries started. Kinda shocked me since it was so warm, I thought there was a mass exodus of petals from the trees around us.

I wonder if they will record a trace of snow for the park today?...in May 1945 NYC recorded a trace of snow with a max/min of 51/45...

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May 9, 1977 was not just a stray flake that some were lucky enough to notice.  Durng the mid afternoon a cold rain turned to a heavy wet snow for a while on LI with temps in the mid 30's.  It did not accumulate (although a haze of slush did start in some spots)  but it was more than just a formality.

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2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

May 9, 1977 was not just a stray flake that some were lucky enough to notice.  During the mid afternoon a cold rain turned to a heavy wet snow for a while on LI with temps in the mid 30's.  It did not accumulate (although a haze of slush did start in some spots)  but it was more than just a formality.

I remember that distinctly, thanks for reminding me. The night before in Ithaca was one of the top 3 ever Grateful Dead shows, when the crowd entered the arena it was warm(ish) and nice, when they left it was snowing hard and there was a few inches on the ground. There were some surprised people coming out in shorts and t-shirts into a full fledged winter storm.

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

I remember that distinctly, thanks for reminding me. The night before in Ithaca was one of the top 3 ever Grateful Dead shows, when the crowd entered the arena it was warm(ish) and nice, when they left it was snowing hard and there was a few inches on the ground. There were some surprised people coming out in shorts and t-shirts into a full fledged winter storm.

saw the greatfull dead at the fillmore east on 2/14/1970...drove there in a snowstorm...no one on the road and I parked on the street two blocks away...try doing that now...

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7 hours ago, uncle W said:

I wonder if they will record a trace of snow for the park today?...in May 1945 NYC recorded a trace of snow with a max/min of 51/45...

no snow reported on the daily almanac for NYC...its only a trace but it should have been observed...

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5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS/Euro actually look a lot more promising with regards to warm spring weather.

Wonder if it's real or another head fake. EPS is still generally cool though it has a couple warmer days poking through over next 10 days. 

I sure hope it's turning.  Sunday and Monday look like more 40's and rain, not to mention tomorrow.

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Yesterday, 5.5" snow fall at Caribou. That exceeded the previous daily record of 4.6", which was set in 1989. Seasonal snowfall has now reached 146.0", which is the 9th highest figure on record. In addition, the total snowfall for the last two seasons (2018-19 through 2019-20) is 311.4", which is the second highest such figure on record. Only 2007-08 through 2008-09 with 313.5" had more.

A storm coming out of the Ohio Valley will bring showers and periods of rain tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures will likely stay well below normal through tomorrow.

Overall, readings will likely average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions through most of the remainder of the month. Warmer than normal conditions could return near the end of the month or just afterward.
 
Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks.

Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. However, uncertainty about the May outcome has increased. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during late April or May.

The SOI was +1.87 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.217.

On April 22, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.793 (RMM). The April 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.796.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Based on recent MJO data, the probability of a warmer than normal summer has increased. Such a summer is now likely in much or all of the East.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.5°.

 

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