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George BM

March Discobs 2020

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47 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Agree ...looks like 2 shots . Did you see the latest Euro ..it appears it does at least a partial capture of the coastal low . NS a bit quicker and more robust . Actually hints at developing the possible mini deform band you spoke of Friday afternoon north of us . Interesting 

Spring time these type setups can sometimes really pop with more moisture generally available.  The trough feature is becoming more pronounced with some pretty healthy moisture convergence so it wouldn't shock me at all to see some pretty good banding set up.  Problem is surface temps suck and antecedent conditions suck...so this will be a situation where it's all or nothing...places that get under a heavy convective band could see a quick thump of snow and a couple inches while a few miles away is getting light rain.  

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Spring time these type setups can sometimes really pop with more moisture generally available.  The trough feature is becoming more pronounced with some pretty healthy moisture convergence so it wouldn't shock me at all to see some pretty good banding set up.  Problem is surface temps suck and antecedent conditions suck...so this will be a situation where it's all or nothing...places that get under a heavy convective band could see a quick thump of snow and a couple inches while a few miles away is getting light rain.  

Bolded ...definitely agree . Eps shifted way west with the coastal. Probably 100 miles or more.  Another 80 to 100 miles more and we are in the coastal deform action instead of Salisbury to OC :weenie:. This is most likely the closest it will get barring a massive model fail but it's a interesting overall setup . Actually a couple members deform the crap out of Southern Jersey with a foot lol.

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Bolded ...definitely agree . Eps shifted way west with the coastal. Probably 100 miles or more.  Another 80 to 100 miles more and we are in the coastal deform action instead of Salisbury to OC :weenie:. This is most likely the closest it will get barring a massive model fail but it's a interesting overall setup . Actually a couple members deform the crap out of Southern Jersey with a foot lol.

I am not so sure we want to root for a quicker phased/bombing coastal.  We are pretty close in to expect enough of a shift to benefit at all from that, but that would interfere with the moisture transport into the inverted trough which is our most likely way to score here.  Maybe I am wrong and there is another January 2000 level bust incoming but short of that (and I am not sure how possible that kind of bust is anymore, despite Howard's posts guidance is SIGNIFICANTLY better now) our only chance is with the inverted trough and banding.  A bombing low with a better closed circulation would cut off the moisture feed to that.  

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am not so sure we want to root for a quicker phased/bombing coastal.  We are pretty close in to expect enough of a shift to benefit at all from that, but that would interfere with the moisture transport into the inverted trough which is our most likely way to score here.  Maybe I am wrong and there is another January 2000 level bust incoming but short of that (and I am not sure how possible that kind of bust is anymore, despite Howard's posts guidance is SIGNIFICANTLY better now) our only chance is with the inverted trough and banding.  A bombing low with a better closed circulation would cut off the moisture feed to that.  

I was wondering if it was possible the convergence zone where our possible inverted trough sets up would hold itself together longer ...if the coastal gets captured and stalls for a bit ...but I can also imagine the banding collapsing quickly if it bombs as you spoke of . 

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43 minutes ago, Potvinsux said:

Just got to Snowshoe.  Will see what tomorrow brings.  Just below freezing here.

Dude, you're at ground zero for the best upslope tomorrow and Saturday. Enjoy the awesome

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Looks like the best shot to see some ss or light snow would be tonight after the inverted trough collapses south through  our general area and we could see remnants from that I believe. The 3k alludes to this. Mostly ambiance snow at best if it does but snow is snow 

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27 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Currently 29 . Just waiting on the first flakes ....or high cirrus :D

The inv trough looks to set up just to our east today. I’m becoming less optimistic about tonight. The faster phase and bomb off the coast is creating a more consolidated mid and upper level flow that Isn’t good.  The subsidence  outside the Ccb banding cuts off the moisture transport and the circulation around the bombing low interferes and hastens any banding left over from the dying primary and upper level system before it can rotate back into our area. These things are tricky so I’ll keep an eye on the banding but latest trends aren’t good imo. 

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like the best shot to see some ss or light snow would be tonight after the inverted trough collapses south through  our general area and we could see remnants from that I believe. The 3k alludes to this. Mostly ambiance snow at best if it does but snow is snow 

We probably see flakes but I’m pessimistic on accumulations. 

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The place to be for this storm might be a place like Chatham,Ma out on the Cape . Looks like a brief period of  moderate to heavy snow with high wind  tonight there .

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42 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The place to be for this storm might be a place like Chatham,Ma out on the Cape . Looks like a brief period of  moderate to heavy snow with high wind  tonight there .

Looks like it will be fun on Nantucket. 4-8" with winds gusting to 60.

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We had a few flakes? pellets? pelakes? of graupel in N. Bethesda this morning.  Top 10 winter event for the year!

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11 minutes ago, The Dude said:

We had a few flakes? pellets? pelakes? of graupel in N. Bethesda this morning.  Top 10 winter event for the year!

Probably top 5 lol

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Decent soaking happening here.

Good timing since I just put down some fertilizer to get the grass going. The nice, warm weather right on the heals of this 'event' will help.

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Decent soaking happening here.

Good timing since I just put down some fertilizer to get the grass going. The nice, warm weather right on the heals of this 'event' will help.

Northern Delaware missing the somewhat better action in your area,  currently a somewhat chilly 45 degrees here.  

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   Just had a heavy snow shower here in Lee County with visibility down to 1/8 mile and Temp. in upper 30's. Rh was 59% when began so, no mixing due to evap..  Flakes were dime to nickel size. You can bet huge flakes and near whiteout higher eles.

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6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Decent soaking happening here.

Good timing since I just put down some fertilizer to get the grass going. The nice, warm weather right on the heals of this 'event' will help.

I'll be over shortly with my homemade fertilizer to help you out. 

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1 minute ago, HighStakes said:

A little rain/snow mix from time to time.

I'm up in Littlestown and had a bit of sleet mixed in occasionally earlier. 

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

My yard only gets the quasi-stationary death band when its rain.

Just think...2000 feet above your head it’s a blizzard right now. Just look up and dream. 

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7 minutes ago, anotherman said:

ss?

snow showers?

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14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Some wet snowflakes mixed in here now with a temp of 38.

Exactly a half inch of rain so far today.

And 5 days ago you said this would just be a wind storm :ph34r:

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

And 5 days ago you said this would just be a wind storm :ph34r:

Yeah it went from looking bone dry to a decent rain event. I suppose I should be excited by that :P 

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