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madwx

March 2020 Discussion

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7 hours ago, Spartman said:

Final March 2020 outlook from CPC

Their March temperature outlook is mild and great.  However, their 3-month outlook has the upper midwest at only average, which means they think April/May will be cold.  I'd rather have a cold March and mild late spring.

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8 hours ago, UMB WX said:

lol this winter whooped cyclones tail.. Never thought I'd see the day he'd lead the spring brigade starting weeks ago.

Haha, maybe.  Must be old age. :lol:

There's definitely an extra spring in everyone's step today.  Temps are skyrocketing like a mofo lol.  It's already in the mid 50s, with a ripping south breeze.  First robins have showed up today, which is kind of a funny coincidence.  Went from none, to about 5-6 out in the back yard hopping around, picking through the leftover dried leaves from last year looking for something to snack on.  

Looks like mid to upper 60s this afternoon.

 

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A couple robins also showed up here today.  The last of the January glacier is finally melting off of the lawn.  That glacier was pretty resilient.  Because the January snowfall was glazed in ice, which make measuring future snow very easy, I left my snow boards deep under the snow.  They are just now emerging.

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Just tagged 60 here. With the CPC outlook forecasting above normal temps, I put in for a vacation next week. Going to take advantage of some early spring weather. 

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18 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

HRRR ended up being pretty close to reality for high temps today.  It had MLI hitting 66, and they hit 65.  Hit 63 here.  Warmest since Christmas lol.

You had a lot of sun, right?

This is sort of anecdotal but I feel like most models tend to underdo temps more often on certain days in spring (especially early) compared to other times of year.  I don't know if the lack of vegetation at this time of year has something to with it or if it is due to phantom snowcover in the models or some other reason.  Conversely, the HRRR was overdoing temps by quite a bit on storm days this winter, but those days would tend to have more clouds.  So maybe it is that the HRRR will do well with temps on days that are mostly sunny.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

You had a lot of sun, right?

This is sort of anecdotal but I feel like most models tend to underdo temps more often on certain days in spring (especially early) compared to other times of year.  I don't know if the lack of vegetation at this time of year has something to with it or if it is due to phantom snowcover in the models or some other reason.  Conversely, the HRRR was overdoing temps by quite a bit on storm days this winter, but those days would tend to have more clouds.  So maybe it is that the HRRR will do well with temps on days that are mostly sunny.

Yeah it seems to do best in a well-mixed low-level environment, which is usually full of sun.  A few weeks ago it was showing a marginal severe setup for southern IA.  It has temps reaching into the mid 50s, but in reality they ended up about 10 degrees cooler and instead of 500-700 J/kg of cape there was 0.  Not sure if it was too aggressive in breaking up the clouds that day or what, but it was way too optimistic with temps.

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18cae57197ff9138512cb3af715999df.jpg

Hit 58 on the slopes at Chestnut in northwest IL. Their base is pretty solid for the most part, about 3-5’ on most runs, but today sure was eating at it. This winter sucked, but it seemed like less rain events than the much better late half of winter 18/19, which kept the ski areas manmade snow in okay shape. Unlike the majority I will be the voice of dissent and say never summer, don’t want to see winter go.

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A world of difference on this side of Lake Michigan compared to the 60s that hit Chicago on West. Nevertheless, you could feel the warmth in the sun (after a low of 18, high 43 today). Still some drifty snow remains, but allergy season (some call it "spring") is encroaching.

88010221_10112843184606913_5729494529006

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Just had a flash of lightning here. Also woke up with the flu at midnight, man I hate this crap. The spring itch is in full force, and so is the desire for that first severe thunderstorm warning. 

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12 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

A world of difference on this side of Lake Michigan compared to the 60s that hit Chicago on West. Nevertheless, you could feel the warmth in the sun (after a low of 18, high 43 today). Still some drifty snow remains, but allergy season (some call it "spring") is encroaching.

88010221_10112843184606913_5729494529006

Another magical photo.   You're the Detroit chamber of commerce's worst nightmare.

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19 hours ago, weatherbo said:

So nice outside today.  It's currently 41/29. Not a bad start March at all.  Snowpack is tight...no need for snowshoes,  only sink about 7 inches when walking on top. Depth at 42" on my stake.

Picnic table visible now

IMG_2307.thumb.JPG.b57fd44799a6d2bb8ea15563649d8968.JPG

 

Some day....I will live there, Bo.

Get ready. :P

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Upper 40 temps and dews and a compact area of heavy rain moved through this morning, absolutely nuked the snow down to just piles and drifts.

Looking at the next two weeks and I wonder how far north the snowpack disappears. Buffalo took out the ice booms around the city, 2nd earliest removal on record. 

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We reached 59º yesterday, as models suggested.  However, the two previous days, and also today, we've been several degrees short of the expected high.  It had looked like we were done with 30s, but today we're stuck at only 34º.

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Nice to have and excuse to pop my split screen on radar scope to velocity as opposed to CC with those storms in S IL. Seems like every storm this winter I have had to be on CC finding the progress of the snow line 

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Pretty cool that there's severe ongoing in the southern end of our state tonight.  A sign that seasons are changing.  You wouldn't know it tonight though, as temps are in the upper 20s.  Hopefully something interesting shows up to track in the last half of this month.  Other than the snow/ice system back in mid Jan all the events have been very wussy going back several months.  Need something with some cahones to break the trend.

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just picked up a quick 1/2" with snow showers this morning.  Sun should come out soon and melt most of it.  Looks like another clipper moves just south of us overnight tonight bringing snow to northern illinois

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20 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Looking at the next two weeks and I wonder how far north the snowpack disappears. Buffalo took out the ice booms around the city, 2nd earliest removal on record. 

After I posted that...man the snow got nuked. Just some piles left. The rogue drift here and there.

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2 hours ago, madwx said:

just picked up a quick 1/2" with snow showers this morning.  Sun should come out soon and melt most of it.  Looks like another clipper moves just south of us overnight tonight bringing snow to northern illinois

And just like that all the snow has melted except the preexisting piles and patches.  The old snow has some staying power but thinking all but the largest piles will be gone by this weekend.

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Looks like a DAB to 1.5" likely across the area for later tonight/tomorrow morning.

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Overachieving up to 43 here today.  This mornings snowfall is a distant memory.  Looks like a roller coaster of temps between about 40-50 this week for highs and then rising to the upper 50s to lower 60s this weekend.

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