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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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5 minutes ago, Wow said:

Middle of the event and it's at or barely above freezing at the surface.  

iH22DSk.png

You might wanna wake up yalls local WFOs down there.  lol.  Although admittedly, I'd wait for a few more runs of the GFS.  We both know how the NAM likes to get precip happy.   But looks like everything is bumping up and there is a real good trend for your region.

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4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

RAH updated their snow maps shortly after 9 and still have wake county less than one inch in the most likely scenario.

RAH Wont bite unless every model is showing 5+ inches within 12 hours. i don't blame them we've all been burned so many times being conservative just makes sense

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4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

We in the mid-Atlantic always have the policy of cutting the NAM qpf in half at least.

Id favor a Euro/GFS/NAM blend.

For sure I hope no one is expecting 12"+ now. But if we could squeeze a 4-6" event out of this miserable excuse for a winter I'd be thrilled.

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4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

RAH updated their snow maps shortly after 9 and still have wake county less than one inch in the most likely scenario.

They won't either until much closer to storm time.They do leave the opportunity for it to change. This has to be the 93rd post today that you have said this. The only thing you didn't add this time was the high was in the wrong place and ground temps are too warm. There are many more model runs still to go, this is the south after all and we are still riding the NAM.........for now   ;)   

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7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You might wanna wake up yalls local WFOs down there.  lol.  Although admittedly, I'd wait for a few more runs of the GFS.  We both know how the NAM likes to get precip happy.   But looks like everything is bumping up and there is a real good trend for your region.

Yup... overblown more than likely.  Thinking a general 1-3" with 3-6" maximums east part of the state.  Marginal temps.. wet snow

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4 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

They won't either until much closer to storm time.They do leave the opportunity for it to change. This has to be the 93rd post today that you have said this. The only thing you didn't add this time was the high was in the wrong place and ground temps are too warm. There are many more model runs still to go, this is the south after all and we are still riding the NAM.........for now   ;)   

It's ok to be skeptical..  in fact I would encourage it!  Better to learn than booing and hissing at anyone not playing along.  But fingers crossed!

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Good luck guys.  And I mean that sincerely.  If anybody from outside this region starts coming in here to troll you, let me or any other mod know. Report or PM.   Hope it works out (Just be wary of the NAM. It can be a heartbreaker..although it has support this time, so it's likely on to something).  


Looking forward to something. If anything.


.

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2 minutes ago, Wow said:

It's ok to be skeptical..  in fact I would encourage it!  Better to learn than booing and hissing at anyone not playing along.  But fingers crossed!

Agree  :hug:  

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4 minutes ago, Wow said:

Yup... overblown more than likely.  Thinking a general 1-3" with 3-6" maximums east part of the state.  Marginal temps.. wet snow

Surface temps are my pet peeve, listening to the snow melt and run down the gutters as it falls. 

With the nam moving North and North with the warm nose this may not be a very impactful storm for clt.  

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8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

RDPS is coming in further north. Often overlooked but a solid short range model 

It did come north... but the snow maps on PW show barely anything unfortunately for you all

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

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Just now, yoda said:

It did come north... but the snow maps on PW show barely anything unfortunately for you all

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

Yea the temps were a torch at the surface..

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This may end up being an event in the favored Triad areas and i40 corridor. Temps are super sketchy during the heaviest precip.  Seen plenty of these snow or no events where I get 3-5" in Kernersville and nothing in Lexington or Mebane. 

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1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I can’t believe sun angle hasn’t been mentioned once. You SE crew are a more upstanding group than us degenerates in MA.

Sun?  With all the rain we’ve had, we completely forgot about that thing.

I’ll take half of what the 00z NAM is giving me after this poop of a winter.  I missed Van Denton’s 10:00 PM forecast.  I’ll be interested in what he has to say for the Triad.

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4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I can’t believe sun angle hasn’t been mentioned once. You SE crew are a more upstanding group than us degenerates in MA.

We have the warm nose to harp on  instead (for good reason)

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10 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

ICON is all rain, and so it begins. Don't say that the ECMWF and UKMET didn't warn ya. Could be a lot of broken hearts throughout the Carolinas Thurs-Fri. Who knows though. 

ICON has been basically all rain. It's well known for being a bit too toasty at times. I wouldn't worry too much about it ever outside of seeing if it agrees with the bigger picture. 

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18 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

ICON is all rain, and so it begins. Don't say that the ECMWF and UKMET didn't warn ya. Could be a lot of broken hearts throughout the Carolinas Thurs-Fri. Who knows though. 

lol at bailing based on the ICON

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14 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I can’t believe sun angle hasn’t been mentioned once. You SE crew are a more upstanding group than us degenerates in MA.

Sun angle usually doesn't get mentioned here til the day before. Usually snow modeled 24+ hours away generally turns to rain before we have a chance to talk about it.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

lol at bailing based on the ICON

To be somewhat fair, the ICON has had it's glory moments over the past few seasons that it's been publicly available, not saying it's onto something by any means.

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46 minutes ago, Wow said:

Middle of the event and it's at or barely above freezing at the surface.  

iH22DSk.png

Good old fashion cement paste job.

But given the thermal profiles...as long as your in a good heavy band more than likely will dip below freezing. Till the rates let up.

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