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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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2 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Warmer run from the NAM is incoming. It has slowly been trending warmer each run. Maybe trending toward all rain?

Real in-depth analysis... Wait till the actual precip moves in. Goodness gracious people

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Still good for NC looks like. Getting close to time to throw in the towel in GA and SC though looks like. GFS gave hope at 18z but every run of the NAM has just exploded with more and more warmth in the mid-levels. 

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1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

That gives the north east/east atlanta suburbs a solid event. Looks like 2-3 inches near me

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Said it earlier, I just can't ever trust any model that wants to show a change to snow after that many hours of rain. It's never as fast as shown and the back end always dries out faster than modeled. Anyone who's lived in warm nose territory I'm sure would agree. 

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2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Still good for NC looks like. Getting close to time to throw in the towel in GA and SC though looks like. GFS gave hope at 18z but every run of the NAM has just exploded with more and more warmth in the mid-levels. 

I don't know. The nam gave me 3 inches.

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Apps lee-side screw-zone in full effect!  I would think if the precipitation truly blossoms that it would fill back in further NW, but maybe that's just wishful thinking...

Can’t tell you how many times the modeled downsloping for the NC foothills never came to fruition in these types of setups. It never fails that it’s modeled but I don’t remember many instances where it actually happened to the NC foothills

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Blending the NAM, GFS, and EURO, central NC looks like a good place to be. I'm hesitant to jump on the NAM being so far north with precip but it cannot be denied that pretty much every model is caving that way. That's not a mby forecast, just an ob based on the 18z runs I've seen

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The lee side screw zone is normally confined to that area of NW Burke/Caldwell counties. Just east Blowing Rock as you descend. Normally it doesn't impact Lenoir towards Hickory from my experiences back home.

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Just now, HKY_WX said:

The lee side screw zone is normally confined to that area of NW Burke/Caldwell counties. Just east Blowing Rock as you descend. Normally it doesn't impact Lenoir towards Hickory from my experiences back home.

The only time I have seen a dramatic leeside minimum was the March 2008 upper level low. Other times it is often overdone on the modeling. 

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1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

The lee side screw zone is normally confined to that area of NW Burke/Caldwell counties. Just east Blowing Rock as you descend. Normally it doesn't impact Lenoir towards Hickory from my experiences back home.

yup.. just a sliver in that particular area..  trying to recall that storm several years back where it showed up clear as day on the map.

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1 minute ago, bargainmusic said:

North Carolina gets absolutely demolished this run.

 

image.thumb.png.c85b5b608979ba9d4dd8f864f89ff851.png

Guy's I'm trying not to get emotionally involved on this, but am having trouble right now.

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