ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 26 minutes ago, dendrite said: Well I think that’s the point we’re making. CC may be giving us snowier winters. My regression comment triggered John a bit, but I think we can still have snowier winters than previous decades and still have room for regression back down. Agreed. The year to year or even decade to decade natural variation in snowfall will drown out the CC signal on those shorter timescales. Snowfall already has a massive standard deviation from year to year. We’re definitely in line for some regression at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Meh. I’m like 10”+ above my normal snowfall over the last 15 years. CC isn’t accounting for that much already. Some models predict increased snowfall in colder climates for the next few decades, as the modeled increase in precip more than balances snowfall lost to p-type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Agreed. The year to year or even decade to decade natural variation in snowfall will drown out the CC signal on those shorter timescales. Snowfall already has a massive standard deviation from year to year. We’re definitely in line for some regression at some point That period from 1955ish to 1971 or so was so solid. No ratters at all in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Agreed. The year to year or even decade to decade natural variation in snowfall will drown out the CC signal on those shorter timescales. Snowfall already has a massive standard deviation from year to year. We’re definitely in line for some regression at some point It'll be interesting to see what happens the next 10 years if we regress a little bit with the 80s removed from the normals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Ripping pretty good here. 1.5” down. Hoping for another 4-6. Temp just below zero so snow is gonna be a bear to move later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 4 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: What's the plan for Friday and Saturday, huddle indoors and troll folks that like the cold? Cold makes you feel satisfied or happy, and that does not make me unhappy. The weird thing is it's obvious my happiness makes you (and others) miserable. I'm happy and everything looks fine. The LR models all show hope and promise. Live angry if you want. Troll away 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/c40a8f06-d3cd-4de4-a072-3e7590ae6a1c/gif#14oGSkpWY.copy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 It'll be interesting to see 0z and how that Icelandic low bottoms out. 18z gfs op was ~915mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 wicked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Stay safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said: It'll be interesting to see 0z and how that Icelandic low bottoms out. 18z gfs op was ~915mb Apparently the record for non-tropical low pressure is 914mb so this could get close. Should be a stunning sight to behold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 it's a nice look for D10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I got a nice surprise 2.2 inches new overnight. Here's hoping for a few more tomorrow. Looks wintry: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 27 minutes ago, klw said: I got a nice surprise 2.2 inches new overnight. Here's hoping for a few more tomorrow. 0.3” of nickels and pennies here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 It's sunny. That's a win. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 36 minutes ago, klw said: I got a nice surprise 2.2 inches new overnight. Here's hoping for a few more tomorrow. Nice! Only a half inch at home and 1-2” at the Mtn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I fully expect Tip to talk about warm tushies in the car seats today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Is 10 day a torchie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 5.5” final. Looks wintery again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It's sunny. That's a win. Asolutely. The grey misery mist and fog were getting to me. As was the black ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Heading to N Conway area next Tuesday . Rainer ...than deep freeze or Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Sunny day here at Mount Snow with packed powder conditions. Comfortable temperatures, 26F this morning and 30F currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Regression has a formal statistical method, and the point was, ...when the mean of the scatter plots don't resemble a straight line, the linearity of it is less dependable. That's the only point I was concerned with there.. As far as CC and snow it's thermodynamically unavoidable that warming leads to greater latent heat/WV content available to precipitating physics. Can't be argued. What becomes prognostic ... as we start getting greater snows during increasing decimals and whole degree average T's, is when do. ( most likely ...) we trip over a phase transition sort of threshold and those systems just end up rainers more and more and more. At which time, the snow averages start declining. We may not be that far along, just sayin'. I was thinking about this yesterday and last evening out of boredom I did some quick comparisons, this winter vs climate zones and it appears we are having a winter more like typology somewhere in mid Jersey for temperatures. That's too close to noise to be blamed on CC, but the problem is that statement " to be blamed on" is stupid - because what it evades is that CC is there at all times. It's really a matter of whether a pattern is sufficiently anomalous to more or less mask it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 5 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Is 10 day a torchie Turn out the lights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Gorgeous! Sunday through Tuesday... Warmer SW flow returns late Saturday and Sunday ahead of our next shortwave, bringing much milder air back into the region. This will be reinforced even more on Monday/Tuesday ahead of a stronger approaching low pressure system for Tuesday. Highs will be back in the upper 30s and 40s each day, with potential to approach 50 degrees Monday or Tuesday depending on the speed of the incoming low. Mainly dry weather persists Sunday and Monday, though a weak cold front may allow for light scattered showers Sunday/Sunday night. Tuesday low pressure passes well to our northwest bringing rain showers back to the region. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Only four months to go until heat and humidity return. Let's continue with that boring discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 42 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Regression has a formal statistical method, and the point was, ...when the mean of the scatter plots don't resemble a straight line, the linearity of it is less dependable. That's the only point I was concerned with there.. As far as CC and snow it's thermodynamically unavoidable that warming leads to greater latent heat/WV content available to precipitating physics. Can't be argued. What becomes prognostic ... as we start getting greater snows during increasing decimals and whole degree average T's, is when do. ( most likely ...) we trip over a phase transition sort of threshold and those systems just end up rainers more and more and more. At which time, the snow averages start declining. We may not be that far along, just sayin'. I was thinking about this yesterday and last evening out of boredom I did some quick comparisons, this winter vs climate zones and it appears we are having a winter more like typology somewhere in mid Jersey for temperatures. That's too close to noise to be blamed on CC, but the problem is that statement " to be blamed on" is stupid - because what it evades is that CC is there at all times. It's really a matter of whether a pattern is sufficiently anomalous to more or less mask it. Do those Koeppen climate maps ever get updated? Or are those set and haven't been revisited? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Regression has a formal statistical method, and the point was, ...when the mean of the scatter plots don't resemble a straight line, the linearity of it is less dependable. That's the only point I was concerned with there.. As far as CC and snow it's thermodynamically unavoidable that warming leads to greater latent heat/WV content available to precipitating physics. Can't be argued. What becomes prognostic ... as we start getting greater snows during increasing decimals and whole degree average T's, is when do. ( most likely ...) we trip over a phase transition sort of threshold and those systems just end up rainers more and more and more. At which time, the snow averages start declining. We may not be that far along, just sayin'. I was thinking about this yesterday and last evening out of boredom I did some quick comparisons, this winter vs climate zones and it appears we are having a winter more like typology somewhere in mid Jersey for temperatures. That's too close to noise to be blamed on CC, but the problem is that statement " to be blamed on" is stupid - because what it evades is that CC is there at all times. It's really a matter of whether a pattern is sufficiently anomalous to more or less mask it. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/18-climate-change/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 the denier in chief is getting upset 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I see no problem with Tips question. He wasn’t coming from an agenda, it was a thought out idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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