February to Forget Volume 2 - 2020

[EastonSN+]

I thought March 1990 was an ok month. .

[Sugarloaf1989]

27 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

outdoor enthusiasts, landscapers, gardening, frisbee, golf, that type of stuff. You know, things that bring peace and happiness.

Gardening in February?  Golfing on a dormant grass course? Peak skiing week coming up.

[Ginx snewx]

43 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Well we’ve never had an in-depth discussion about it Steve, which I would be delighted to do. But the way you react to it suggests indeed that you were in denial that climate change is man-made and unprecedented in terms of the last 800,000 or so years. And that position would be consistent with a percentage of people on the far right in this country including the president.  It is a shame that an issue like this needs to be so politicized. Maybe if the issue wasn’t made public by Democratic politician named Al gore then it wouldn’t have been so politicized, but it is it’s not fair to expect posters to not talk about it because you don’t like what they’re saying, especially when tip is relating it to the current pattern. I’ve said that like 10 times over the last couple of months it’s a legitimate in a pattern thread when it’s about the pattern.

Labels and stereotypes that's the way of the radical left. Nuff said. I stated many times I believe the climate is warming. You alone dragged politics into it cuz that's what you do to end discussion.  Nuff said enjoy your snowstorm 

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s room for some CC reference in these threads but it honestly shouldn’t be the main topic....our weather is overwhelmingly dominated by natural variation on the scales we generally discuss in here...which is weeks and months.

There’s a reason places still get their coldest months on record even in today’s climate...and it’s not because of a warmer world either. It’s because natural variation can still overwhelm the underlying warming trend. 

If we want to debate in-depth how much CC contributed to a specific pattern, I think it’s best discussed in a different thread as these types of attribution studies are not very robust yet in the literature. The climate change signals show up on larger scales and larger samples. Polar jet in the means has migrated a half degree latitude north per the literature? Sure, that affects things. But that is a mean and not the same everywhere. In the CONUS it’s been less than that...mostly because we’ve had the trend higher in the N PAC. So therefore downstream there is a reaction to that. Yet, sometimes that trend is bucked...AK had their coldest January on record in 2012 and 13th coldest this year...certainly no thanks to a more northern PJ in the North Pacific. It was in spite of that trend. 

Attribution studies are changing all the time too...what was once the hot topic a few years prior can become obsolete. A good example is the changing literature on the arctic region. It was once thought that climate change would force more +NAO/+AO patterns. Then when we went through a remarkable period of -NAO/AO in the 2000s and early 2010s, the hot idea in the literature turned to arctic amplification and sea ice loss being the driver of arctic blocking. 

Now that idea has been challenged again in recent publications. Perhaps in response to more +AO patterns recently. 

I’m not mentioning this to discredit the science, but merely to point out the attribution studies to particular patterns are not robustly settled in the literature. It’s being debated. So we have to be careful about passing off the speculative as fact. 

There are great debates to be had on the subject...how does a larger scale trend affect us in the CONUS or New England? But I don’t want to turn the pattern thread into these all the time when people are mostly here to discuss the weather prospects in this month. 

 

We tried to tell them

[A Moonlit Sky]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Labels and stereotypes that's the way of the radical left. Nuff said. I stated many times I believe the climate is warming. You alone dragged politics into it cuz that's what you do to end discussion.  Nuff said enjoy your snowstorm 

Labels and stereotypes, I say. That's the way of those people.

[CoastalWx]

When the thread gets out-of-control about CC, I can see reeling it in. I just didn’t interpret Tip’s post as something to set off some sort of polarized bomb,  except for maybe one person.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Minenfeld! said:

Labels and stereotypes, I say. That's the way of those people.

Yea

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

When the thread gets out-of-control about CC, I can see reeling it in. I just didn’t interpret Tip’s post as something to set off some sort of polarized bomb,  except for maybe one person.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/18-climate-change/

[CoastalWx]

 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

 

[Sugarloaf1989]

Perfect:

Friday and Saturday...

Friday an expansive area of high pressure moves into New England
ushering in a shot of drier arctic air. Flow around the high comes
out of the N/NW Friday into early Saturday bringing 850 mb temps
down toward the -15 to -18 C range in a good mixing environment
leading to high temperatures each day in the 20s and low 30s (a bit
below normal for mid February for a change). Saturday morning the
bottom drops out in a good radiational cooling setup which will
bring some of the coldest air of this winter, in the single digits
(teens on the Cape). Many location in the high elevation interior
may drop below zero, and Boston could drop into the single digits
for the first time this season. Guidance is overall slightly
warmer than 24 hours ago, but widespread single digits are still
expected. Dry and sunny conditions persist each day. The only
exception will be over Cape Cod and Nantucket where lingering
low level moisture and favorable wind direction may lead to
ocean effect clouds and some flurries/snow showers. NAM and EC
guidance has shifted the moisture a bit further offshore so
backed off on PoPs a bit with this update, but still in the
realm of possibility. Impactful winds aren`t expected either
day, but Friday will be the breezy day with good mixing bringing
down gusts 15 to 20 mph, closer to 25 mph along the southeast
coast.
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Man when I melt,  at least I try to throw in some humor and colorful posts. Some of you throw insults,  F bombs, full-blown meltcosity. 

Worst I have seen this place. Gotta try to step away..ugh.

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

When the thread gets out-of-control about CC, I can see reeling it in. I just didn’t interpret Tip’s post as something to set off some sort of polarized bomb,  except for maybe one person.

Yeah Tips post clarifying what he meant by regression was fine. My comment was in general. There’s some room for CC reference but unpacking how it relates to specific patterns is really a thread in itself as I was explaining above. 

[Sugarloaf1989]

Lots of folks out ice fishing on the Oxbow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

So is winter returning by month end? Any thoughts from non agenda folk is appreciated. 

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So is winter returning by month end? Any thoughts from non agenda folk is appreciated. 

This is what Ensembles show for the end of the month 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Serviceable, thanks.

[CoastalWx]

People putting row boats back in local pond.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Lots of folks out ice fishing on the Oxbow.

Yeah, I saw that today.    

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I did a big loop through the valley today, outside of hill town elevations there is basically no snow S of Greenfield.  RT 2  has been the Maginot Line of snow for the past 8 weeks.

[Sugarloaf1989]

8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I did a big loop through the valley today, outside of hill town elevations there is basically no snow S of Greenfield.  RT 2  has been the Maginot Line of snow for the past 8 weeks.

There's scattered snowcover between the Deerfield River and Route 2. Probably about 2-6" on Route 112 to the VT line. There's about 6-10" around Mount Snow.

[bwt3650]

I know it’s a different world up here, but at jay, there is probably 3 feet

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

I know it’s a different world up here, but at jay, there is probably 3 feet

Well, yeah, different world.  

[Great Snow 1717]

3 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

outdoor enthusiasts, landscapers, gardening, frisbee, golf, that type of stuff. You know, things that bring peace and happiness.

You might want to talk to some landscapers about how happy they are  when they have to work when the temp is 85+ with dew points in the 60's and 70's.  

[Torch Tiger]

22 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

You might want to talk to some landscapers about how happy they are when they have to work when the temp is 85+ with dew points in the 60's and 70's

happiness of well-balanced person is not determined by a temp and dew points. I know, it is pretty shocking

[Torch Tiger]

On 2/5/2020 at 9:23 PM, CoastalWx said:

Actually, that is a good post from Dews. There is the culprit. That sure isn't helping. 920 looks a little wild though. 

 

On 2/5/2020 at 9:14 PM, Dr. Dews said:

back on-topic, how about that modeled N Atl cyclone, esemble smoothing aside. That's a thing of beauty. Talk of record setting daily AO in that range. what a winter

 

Epic, nearly a record-setter?

 

[WinterWolf]

38 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

happiness of well-balanced person is not determined by a temp and dew points. I know, it is pretty shocking

Ya, but all you do is say how happy you are with the mild temps, and no winter time weather in the immediate future?  

But then you go and say what you just did above...lol you’re a troll plain and simple just out to bust chops.  
 

I don’t think most peeps are so upset with the lack of snow/winter time weather, that it’s actually making them truly unhappy like you’re touting....this is how you show that you’re out to troll. 

[Torch Tiger]

18z gfs op has a more blocky and dare I say wintry look in la-la land. You can see the hugely ++++nao and ao start to break down and an Azores high develop. Also the east Pac and west coast isn't terrible looking.

[Damage In Tolland]

Here’s why the board has become a place to avoid . Winter ended officially Dec 22

 

[Torch Tiger]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya, but all you do is say how happy you are with the mild temps, and no winter time weather in the immediate future?  

But then you go and say what you just did above...lol you’re a troll plain and simple just out to bust chops.  
 

I don’t think most peeps are so upset with the lack of snow/winter time weather, that it’s actually making them truly unhappy like you’re touting....this is how you show that you’re out to troll. 

I am happy if it is 90 or 0. we all have wx preferences... being a popular opinion or always hyping stuff for forum likeability and standing is not in my future though.