WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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34 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I'm also really curious what driving force the seasonal dynamic models were seeing to make their +AO/NAO predictions.  

On a larger note, a few years ago I saw some speculation that AGW would lead to a weaker polar jet thus more -NAO/AO episodes.  The idea was that the strength of the polar jet is strongly affected by the latitudinal temperature gradient.  As that gradient goes down with polar warming, the mean strength of the polar jet would also go down.  It made sense to me.  But obviously it didn't work out that way this year.  Perhaps there is another forcing which is overwhelming it (maritime continent warm pool perhaps) or maybe it was just pure random chance.  But the fact that the seasonal models picked up on it implies there is a non-random forcing element involved.

 

There is a correlation between tropical forcing, glamm, gwo and the high latitudes. So my guess is they correctly saw those hostile base states. Even ignoring the angular momentum stuff had you shown me the plot of what the mjo was going to do from Xmas to March back in the fall I would have predicted a dumpster fire then instead of waiting until late December to realize we were fooked. 

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Just got around to checking last night's EPS.  New seasonal low for snow fall mean of 0.2" for College Park.  I suspect the low values may have more to do with March climatology than any worsening in our already dire outlook. 

Maryland had a home baseball game yesterday afternoon.  Getting close to give up time for us snow lovers. 

 

 

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^I should have made that my profile photo a month ago.
We are getting an easy snow storm around March 20th
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45 minutes ago, Ji said:
59 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
^I should have made that my profile photo a month ago.

We are getting an easy snow storm around March 20th

What’s going to happen is late March the PV breaks down and blocking sets up but because it’s late March and the mid latitudes are torched by the antecedent pattern we will get a perfect track slow moving coastal 960 bomb that stalls just east of OC and dumps 3” of rain at 37 degrees and mixes with slush bombs at times just to tease us even more. 

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What’s going to happen is late March the PV breaks down and blocking sets up but because it’s late March and the mid latitudes are torched by the antecedent pattern we will get a perfect track slow moving coastal 960 bomb that stalls just east of OC and dumps 3” of rain at 37 degrees and mixes with slush bombs at times just to tease us even more. 
If it can happen by mid march we can still score but there is nothing suggesting this

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22 minutes ago, Ji said:
27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
What’s going to happen is late March the PV breaks down and blocking sets up but because it’s late March and the mid latitudes are torched by the antecedent pattern we will get a perfect track slow moving coastal 960 bomb that stalls just east of OC and dumps 3” of rain at 37 degrees and mixes with slush bombs at times just to tease us even more. 

If it can happen by mid march we can still score but there is nothing suggesting this

It’s going to happen a day too late. You know it. 

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

What’s going to happen is late March the PV breaks down and blocking sets up but because it’s late March and the mid latitudes are torched by the antecedent pattern we will get a perfect track slow moving coastal 960 bomb that stalls just east of OC and dumps 3” of rain at 37 degrees and mixes with slush bombs at times just to tease us even more. 

Actually that would be pretty bad ass to track imo . A nice stalled 960 bomb just off OC . I'll take it .

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

What’s going to happen is late March the PV breaks down and blocking sets up but because it’s late March and the mid latitudes are torched by the antecedent pattern we will get a perfect track slow moving coastal 960 bomb that stalls just east of OC and dumps 3” of rain at 37 degrees and mixes with slush bombs at times just to tease us even more. 

March 29, 1984.

 

Of course the "snow mixed in with rain before ending" in the official forecast turned into 7" of the wettest snow I remember.  I broke two hickory handle shovels digging out the bottom of the lane where the plow pushed up a crazy wall of slush and snow.

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3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Looks like next weekend coastal N.C. might score again! 
 

Salt squarely in the wound!

ECG beats IAD, BWI and DCA.  Well that’s a fine kettle of fish. 

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On 2/21/2020 at 6:29 PM, CentralVaNATS said:

What a bunchh of baloney. Man go pound sand or thorns in TX

I am pounding sand and thorns in Texas, but I still believe in snow hitting DC this season. There is still time. I have seen stranger winter weather in the 50 or so years I used to live there, lol. I know its a bad pattern, but there is still time. About those thorns, they have trees down here with 4 inch thorns on the branches! I had to remove some! Man was that entertaining! LOL

Quote

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

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WB 0Z EPS Control  Day 13, March 6-7...placing all my remaining chips on the roulette wheel...only a weak EPS signal in the Day 9-15 period, about 10 percent heavy hitters.  Enough for me to keep looking at the model runs for any trendsetters in the last three weeks or so of tracking.

C7C29CFA-96FC-47D8-B929-E94C035FFC4A.png

FB07FADE-92D7-4ECA-9EA7-A3B081219930.png

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^ Yea ...there's a  bit of signal within the Eps envelope to cut off energy behind the mid week storm around day 7 to 8 ish . Something to watch . Bring it home Showme :thumbsup:

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

^ Yea ...there's a  bit of signal within the Eps envelope to cut off energy behind the mid week storm around day 7 to 8 ish . Something to watch . Bring it home Showme :thumbsup:

Going to be up at Mohegan Sun Pocono during that period. Probably would need a lot more help up there then down here. 

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11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Going to be up at Mohegan Sun Pocono during that period. Probably would need a lot more help up there then down here. 

Slots?  If so.... May you return with a Santa bag full of coin :D

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Hmmmm.... Relax that suppression in the NE....

image.png.e01cdc088a1263ac87b6a528e2747029.png

You already know how this ends up lol.

We will, however, have our third straight cold/dry weekend following another mild week. Rinse and repeat, :)

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