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ORH_wxman

Feb 1-2 storm threat

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The current guidance is still a bit all over the map in terms of whether this threat will be a larger impact and how the storm will even evolve.

The most bullish camp is the ECMWF/UKMET suite combo which are giving large portions of New England warning criteria snowfall....GGEM is trying to be a SE MA scraper and the GFS is a flat out whiff. I didn't bother looking at the bottom feeders (ICON/JMA/NAVGEM etc)

 

Here's the 18z EPS which followed a drastic improvement on the 18z OP ECMWF....a significantly stronger northern stream injection occuring and that trend actually began on the 12z run but increased on the 18z run. And the EPS has followed suit each run.

 

Jan28_18zEPS96.png.08219c1be961f036a0424d1e5de66e49.png

 

Jan28_18zEPS102.png.52d578c36847ea2de63aa3d8f608f4cd.png

 

Jan28_18zEPS108.png.193ee2b81c978ea042774ebfec7511a9.png

 

 

 

 

Here's a list of pros and cons for the system:

Pros for further west track:

1. Stronger northern stream injection? (mostly shown by the Euro suite, but it obviously carries some weight)

2. Western ridge is building during the early stages of cyclogenesis

3. Good infusion of gulf moisture (latent heat release helps pump up downstream ridging?)

 

Cons for further west track:

1. Fast flow with no downstream blocking

2. Ridge is somewhat flat-topped even if it is building in the early stages...

3. Multiple shortwaves could cause destructive wave interference if northern stream is not strong enough to overcome

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Next few cycles should start to tell the tale, We are inside 4 days now so there should be some changes coming up on guidance as energy comes on shore out west.

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29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The current guidance is still a bit all over the map in terms of whether this threat will be a larger impact and how the storm will even evolve.

The most bullish camp is the ECMWF/UKMET suite combo which are giving large portions of New England warning criteria snowfall....GGEM is trying to be a SE MA scraper and the GFS is a flat out whiff. I didn't bother looking at the bottom feeders (ICON/JMA/NAVGEM etc)

 

Here's the 18z EPS which followed a drastic improvement on the 18z OP ECMWF....a significantly stronger northern stream injection occuring and that trend actually began on the 12z run but increased on the 18z run. And the EPS has followed suit each run.

 

Jan28_18zEPS96.png.08219c1be961f036a0424d1e5de66e49.png

 

Jan28_18zEPS102.png.52d578c36847ea2de63aa3d8f608f4cd.png

 

Jan28_18zEPS108.png.193ee2b81c978ea042774ebfec7511a9.png

 

 

 

 

Here's a list of pros and cons for the system:

Pros for further west track:

1. Stronger northern stream injection? (mostly shown by the Euro suite, but it obviously carries some weight)

2. Western ridge is building during the early stages of cyclogenesis

3. Good infusion of gulf moisture (latent heat release helps pump up downstream ridging?)

 

Cons for further west track:

1. Fast flow with no downstream blocking

2. Ridge is somewhat flat-topped even if it is building in the early stages...

3. Multiple shortwaves could cause destructive wave interference if northern stream is not strong enough to overcome

Thanks for breaking it down concisely. 

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Just went back and looked on the 18z EPS and slp mean low was 987mb in the GOM so there had to be some bomb members in there.

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8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Just went back and looked on the 18z EPS and slp mean low was 987mb in the GOM so there had to be some bomb members in there.

Getting back to your comment about cirrus to BL issues, it’s speaking more to the airmass ahead of it regardless of track. That’s all I meant.

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I was just beginning to make plans for Superbowl Sunday.........have to try to remember: one is an aberration, two is a coincidence, three is a trend. Lets wake up tomorrow with the EPS looking this good.

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16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Getting back to your comment about cirrus to BL issues, it’s speaking more to the airmass ahead of it regardless of track. That’s all I meant.

Its a case of another marginal one like its been most of this year, I want to be clear, Nothing was directed at you by my comment.

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So we got that 100mi shift in one suite on the EPS....centered right on the BM.

Would be highly encouraging if it maintained some semblance of continuity at 0z

So many short waves, I like bobs idea of get lead S.W out of way , bury another in Tijuana and let Northern stream dig. 

Given progressive pattern and moderate airmass I want and I believe we need the N stream to do the heavy lifting . Show me this at 0z and the board will come alive 

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Thanks Will.  My thoughts on a “Miller B” type storm started yesterday when we started seeing the s/w over the SW digging to Tijuana and the northern stream started coming in stronger and more amplified.  I’m using the Euro for my thoughts as I feel the GFS and GGEM are useless in complex phasing patterns with multiple short waves.  The UKie has been pretty steadfast in a western outlier track compared to others.  The last piece falling into place was the euro tendency to lose s/w into the SW.  I felt that at some point we would either see the euro trend towards the GFS in keeping this s/w more progressive but the opposite has happened.  It’s dug further and further S and W.  These are the things I’ll be keying on in further runs as we get closer.  This can still go either way but my confidence in a storm offshore of us has increased today.  I do think we see the GFS latch on to the strength of the northern stream in upcoming runs and  I’d watch to see if that energy in the SW trend more progressive.

 

ramble done :blink:

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8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Thanks Will.  My thoughts on a “Miller B” type storm started yesterday when we started seeing the s/w over the SW digging to Tijuana and the northern stream started coming in stronger and more amplified.  I’m using the Euro for my thoughts as I feel the GFS and GGEM are useless in complex phasing patterns with multiple short waves.  The UKie has been pretty steadfast in a western outlier track compared to others.  The last piece falling into place was the euro tendency to lose s/w into the SW.  I felt that at some point we would either see the euro trend towards the GFS in keeping this s/w more progressive but the opposite has happened.  It’s dug further and further S and W.  These are the things I’ll be keying on in further runs as we get closer.  This can still go either way but my confidence in a storm offshore of us has increased today.  I do think we see the GFS latch on to the strength of the northern stream in upcoming runs and  I’d watch to see if that energy in the SW trend more progressive.

 

ramble done :blink:

Tip? Tip is that you?

 

All kidding aside...nice post. Yours was very understandable lol.

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11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Tip? Tip is that you?

 

All kidding aside...nice post. Yours was very understandable lol.

Lol.  No need rib Tip.  He’s not the easiest to understand with his writing style.

I kid a lot but I try to lay it out as best I can when I feel it warranted.  Thanks.

This is by no means a lock but I’m hedging towards something closer by then what the goofus is showing.

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6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Lol.  No need rib Tip.  He’s not the easiest to understand with his writing style.

I kid a lot but I try to lay it out as best I can when I feel it warranted.  Thanks.

This is by no means a lock but I’m hedging towards something closer by then what the goofus is showing.

I agree. I think you have been spot-on.

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Lol.  No need rib Tip.  He’s not the easiest to understand with his writing style.

I kid a lot but I try to lay it out as best I can when I feel it warranted.  Thanks.

This is by no means a lock but I’m hedging towards something closer by then what the goofus is showing.

It’s all in fun..no harm intended.  
 

Nothing is a lock this season.  let’s see what 0z has in store for us?  

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36 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Thanks Will.  My thoughts on a “Miller B” type storm started yesterday when we started seeing the s/w over the SW digging to Tijuana and the northern stream started coming in stronger and more amplified.  I’m using the Euro for my thoughts as I feel the GFS and GGEM are useless in complex phasing patterns with multiple short waves.  The UKie has been pretty steadfast in a western outlier track compared to others.  The last piece falling into place was the euro tendency to lose s/w into the SW.  I felt that at some point we would either see the euro trend towards the GFS in keeping this s/w more progressive but the opposite has happened.  It’s dug further and further S and W.  These are the things I’ll be keying on in further runs as we get closer.  This can still go either way but my confidence in a storm offshore of us has increased today.  I do think we see the GFS latch on to the strength of the northern stream in upcoming runs and  I’d watch to see if that energy in the SW trend more progressive.

 

ramble done :blink:

It’s good to see you throwin’ down some lengthy WX  posts again!  

#KnowledgeableLurker   ;)

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It’s good to see you throwin’ down some lengthy WX  posts again!  

#KnowledgeableLurker   ;)

:poster_stupid:  Been too busy and boring to warrant them.

00z NAM has a pretty good look at 84hr.  Not a classic set up but could be enough to clip the area.

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Hope to get a trend a tad back west but our luck we will miss.. anybody notice the kicker in front of main energy some models are trying to form a low which looks like its effecting the track .. hmm

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5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

:poster_stupid:  Been too busy and boring to warrant them.

00z NAM has a pretty good look at 84hr.  Not a classic set up but could be enough to clip the area.

 I won’t be surprised if in the next 24 to 36 hours we see a few models show sizesble jumps NW before we get the final solution which is likely a niice advisory event for E SNE. 

I’m not ruling anything out until this time tomorrow. 

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That’s such a drastic change/demonstratively different I’m inclined to argue that we’re looking at a completely different system at this point; like the models were just wrong about everything and then we transition right into a new scenario altogether. It just happened to be fitting into the same timeframe. We are correcting for two different streams simultaneously ... coincident in time  

 Bye-bye southern stream hello new from the North but we’ll see if it has legs

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I’ll tell you what if I was an ECMWF modeling manager I would probably be really after this one for real analysis/case study

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Also it occurred to me late this afternoon did anybody bother to check the model verification folks today and see if maybe they got some bad data in the runs this morning.
 

Not that it matters for this I mean like I said it looks like it’s just a whole unique new paradigm

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