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ORH_wxman

Feb 1-2 storm threat

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25 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Seriously thou,I would say this probably has some time left given the amount of Vorts involved . Need some bullish trends today 

Ensemble sensitivity suggests about 24 hour left for some players to start really getting sampled, so I wouldn't put a fork in it yet. EPS still has enough members to keep the weenies all tucked in their buns.

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Not the trends we wanted to see overnight. Gonna need 12z to come back the right direction or it’s probably toast. 

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25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not the trends we wanted to see overnight. Gonna need 12z to come back the right direction or it’s probably toast. 

Going to be easy to pick the euro out for blowing this one as it was the only model to blow up at 18z last night.

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28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not the trends we wanted to see overnight. Gonna need 12z to come back the right direction or it’s probably toast. 

but we have the 6z Nam trending north...:yikes:

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2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Going to be easy to pick the euro out for blowing this one as it was the only model to blow up at 18z last night.

I kinda disagree...there are times when I totally understand "bashing" forecast models but I don't think that is appropriate in this situation. Every single process involved in this potential was highly complex...perhaps one of the more complex scenarios you'll see. It's almost impossible to expect forecast models to 1) handle a situation like this well 2) show consistency (both run-to-run and model-to-model). When you have a progressive flow, numerous pieces of embedded s/w energy, potential for any type of phasing, and questions with how the pattern will evolve...which is based on numerous other factors...the forecast models just aren't going to do exceptionally well. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I kinda disagree...there are times when I totally understand "bashing" forecast models but I don't think that is appropriate in this situation. Every single process involved in this potential was highly complex...perhaps one of the more complex scenarios you'll see. It's almost impossible to expect forecast models to 1) handle a situation like this well 2) show consistency (both run-to-run and model-to-model). When you have a progressive flow, numerous pieces of embedded s/w energy, potential for any type of phasing, and questions with how the pattern will evolve...which is based on numerous other factors...the forecast models just aren't going to do exceptionally well. 

I can only go back 4 runs on WeartherBell, but the mean snowfall for BOS has been consistent between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of snow that whole time. 

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06z euro beefed up the northern stream again but it is still not enough this run. 

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11 hours ago, dryslot said:

Next few runs should make this somewhat more clear i would think, I'm giving it until thurs 12z.

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Well... last night I mentioned this continuity break seemed more likely a new paradigm rather than modeling the same system that we were following, anyway?   The flip-side of that same concern/observation 'might' be, gee - do we trust that...  Not that anyone did - just sayn' for those grousing over modeling performance - if you are doing that, you bought in. Otherwise you wouldn't do that. So, lesson learned?  Probably not. 

I also agree that 'more information is not always better' - in this case...as Scott mentioned, the 06 and 18z Euro products are new in the era of accessibility to the modeling cinema's age of gawk and appeal, and addiction..heh.  Kidding, but seriously ... We are probably missing some familiarity-heredity as to any nuances in performance with these off hour cycles of the Euro. I mean, we have this sort of impression for the 18z GFS [ enter sarcasm here ], so it's quite plausible.     

I haven't run out and researched the web myself...but, I wonder, are there any disclaimers out there that discuss the Euro's 'off hour' runs - maybe they admit and/or sell it as a granular version, and therefor, it may not even employ the correction shit. I'm just spit balling..  Point being, this doesn't or should not fairly be used to judge the Euro.  And, hell ...for all we know, it'll come back on the 12z and make a proper showing.  Oh ..it gets harder to visualize such fortune happening in an apparent unrelenting dearth of good graces ... but if it is possible, don't give in, and be objective ..etc.

Anyway, all along this was more southern stream/N/stream phasing questions.  Yesterday's 18z purer N/stream with almost no S/stream become for a Miller B ...probably even NJ models solution, that was an abrupt change and break in continuity requiring the same skepticism.  I sense some desperation is made the collective leap here.  No criticism...

Hell, what if the S/stream comes back because of the relay off the Pac on this 12z initialization that's about to get underway... And what if the Euro's N/stream idea comes back, too. Now you got a substantive S/stream running out underneath an N/stream dive through Wisconsin and we're back to some of the absurd looks from last weekend.  Wouldn't be the first time a long lead system product dumped only to return.  Oh I don't think so ...but, I cannot preclude it either. I'm not trying to 'bargain' by saying this - I'm trying to offer some objectivity. 

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54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I thought the nrn stream looked better on the 6z EPS. Hopefully 12z can bring some answers.

Or more questions.

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Well, it was four days out, and we never had off our runs before with the euro. 

But when I hedged that at 12z yesterday, the Euro would close the door for good on this POS, it actually improved.  And then it really got everybody back in the game again at 18Z.  Say whatever you want...from Vorts all over the place, to it comes out 4 times a day now, etc etc...it's lost it's Mojo from the good ol days.   When it would latch on before, it was steadfast and you knew you had something to be interested in.  Now it's a flip flopper like the rest.  

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like 12z yesterday... pin the tail on the bustard.

12z today is shit or get off the pot time. Need to see improvement. At least for most of the region. SE areas can prob have it hold serve and push it out another run or two. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

12z today is shit or get off the pot time. Need to see improvement. At least for most of the region. SE areas can prob have it hold serve and push it out another run or two. 

12z shall DELIVEERRRR! 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree. This has been exhausting.

I agree.  12z will seal most everybody's fate imo.   Far SE Mass as Will said might be able to hang on a lil longer, but this 12z is the deciding hour on if this is going to make the move into something, or just continue the BS of this Dreaded Season to date.  

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We have until 12z Friday. If each run continues the trend, we’re good 

If the trend is our friend, then yes there is a tad more time.  But once it deviates in the negative direction....she "Gone" pal.    And If 12z doesn't improve at all, pack it in unless you're Jimmy's next door Neighbor to the East of him. 

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