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ORH_wxman

Feb 1-2 storm threat

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

At this juncture I highly doubt we're getting any assistance from the northern stream...which never seemed highly likely anyways. The flow is just too progressive. Sure there have been hints at more northern stream involvement...but they've been just that...hints. There was never any major support or backing from this possibility outside of "if x happens then y will occur".

I think that 18z EPS at like 72 hrs lead was major support.

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At hour 60, the NAM is at least trying to sync the main precip with the northern energy, but then it escapes and jumps to a low off South Carolina at 63 -- which is game over. I suppose there's still time for the models to follow through with that initial linkage, but it's running out fast.

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If that southern stream is going to be stubborn to exit stage right, we'll need the northern stream to drop into the backside of all that hot mess sooner.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that 18z EPS at like 72 hrs lead was major support.

but wasn't it only one run? The one thing which has been constant this entire week of tracking was the flow was going to be progressive and when that's the case it's going to be very difficult to get an end result of northern stream assistance. Sometimes the gun gets jumped too quickly on just one model run...whether it be an OP or EPS. For example, if all of a sudden the EPS switched tunes next week everyone would start jumping towards cold/snow b/c this one run showed it...then after the EPS jumps back from this idea instead of realizing it was a blip everyone still acts as if there was hope b/c this one run said so

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Looking at the vort level on the 12z NAM, it's almost as if energy from the northern stream is splitting..one piece reenergizing the southern energy..while the other just heads east and refuses to dig. Not sure how likely that is..but not gonna cut it either way

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16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

but wasn't it only one run? The one thing which has been constant this entire week of tracking was the flow was going to be progressive and when that's the case it's going to be very difficult to get an end result of northern stream assistance. Sometimes the gun gets jumped too quickly on just one model run...whether it be an OP or EPS. For example, if all of a sudden the EPS switched tunes next week everyone would start jumping towards cold/snow b/c this one run showed it...then after the EPS jumps back from this idea instead of realizing it was a blip everyone still acts as if there was hope b/c this one run said so

Yes, which why I awaited confirmation that never came at 00z prior to jumping in.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, which why I awaited confirmation that never came at 00z prior to jumping in.

If only more were as level headed as you :lol: 

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13 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Looking at the vort level on the 12z NAM, it's almost as if energy from the northern stream is splitting..one piece reenergizing the southern energy..while the other just heads east and refuses to dig. Not sure how likely that is..but not gonna cut it either way

Pretty much all the models have been doing it though.

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

If only more were as level headed as you :lol: 

I decide to be negative or positive depending on how my work day is going. Since our emotion toward storms doesn't matter sh*t anyways.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

BS...the board doesn't see me breaking my infant daughter's toys when I throw them in anger...I just try not to clutter the thread with the same rhea that I used to lol

Old habits die hard, I've passed all that.

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3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I decide to be negative or positive depending on how my work day is going. Since our emotion toward storms doesn't matter sh*t anyways.

Some seem to use emotion as their forecasting method.

 

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We just don't need to see anymore regression in the models or this will be doneski even for eastern areas.

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Just now, dryslot said:

We just don't need to see anymore regression in the models or this will be doneski even for eastern areas.

Correct.  Annoying that the lead shit is preventing this all from being a pretty big storm for many, many more.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Correct.  Annoying that the lead shit is preventing this all from being a pretty big storm for many, many more.

If we can continue the better trends and get thru today, Then by tomorrow, If we don't see anymore improvements, Then i think we will have our outcome.

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7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

If we can continue the better trends and get thru today, Then by tomorrow, If we don't see anymore improvements, Then i think we will have our outcome.

Everytime we gain yardage, we are sacked on the next down..00z was a loss of 10 yards. I don't think that this event will be a player on Suber Bowl Sunday lol I wish the n stream could tackle that lead southern turd.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Everytime we gain yardage, we are sacked on the next down..00z was a loss of 10 yards. I don't this event will be a player on Suber Bowl Sunday lol I wish the n stream could tackle that lead southern turd.

That's the one that been lowering the heights out ahead of our s/w.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Everytime we gain yardage, we are sacked on the next down..00z was a loss of 10 yards. I don't this event will be a player on Suber Bowl Sunday lol I wish the n stream could tackle that lead southern turd.

I was thinking of a bunker buster missile

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