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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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21 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Actually there is some evidence that the Miami sea level rise is not the sea rising but the ground sinking. I am not saying the ocean is or isn't rising, just referring to certain parts of the Miami area that have some flooding issues.

Interesting. hadn't heard that.

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The 5.9 inch sea level rise in South Florida since 1996 is a mix of both subsidence and rising sea levels.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/08/08/analysis-sea-level-rise-is-combining-with-other-factors-regularly-flood-miami/

According to this analysis, there was a 5.9-inch sea-level rise in Miami since 1996. For a city that floods at just 16 inches above flood stage, that jump, which is due to both sea-level rise and land subsidence, is highly consequential.

You might think that should correspond to a 38 percent increase in the amount of flooding Miami is seeing now versus 23 years ago, since 5.9 inches is 38 percent of 16 inches. In reality, there has been a 3.2-fold increase in how often Miami sees nuisance flooding. That’s a 320 percent jump.

The reason? Flooding is nonlinear. That means that even if the sea level rose at a constant rate, the impacts and flooding Miami residents would experience skyrocket disproportionately fast.

 

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

I think so.....Eric fisher had a interesting tweet about years with a AO this positive the warmth continued into March. I don’t see much help from the mjo after the 15th. The roundy plots keep convection in the warm phases and it collapses there. We would need other help if we want a cold March. I just don’t see help from the Pv or any other area to think that currently. This is a mild/snowless winter from end to end 

You and I have the same views here. I had been thinking March went cold and possibly snowy...I’ve since changed my view for the same reasons. I just don’t think it does the magical March flip this time, I think we go out 2012 style this year

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Regarding today’s weather there is a weak system moving through eastern and northeastern PA at this time.  Areas that are under the 20 - 30 dbz echoes are actually receiving a burst of moderate snow at this time. If you are above 800 to 1000 feet it is sticking and accumulating.  Lower elevations are seeing snow but it is not really sticking.  If you are under light precip it is mixed snow and rain.  If you live in or will be out and about in northern NJ or SE NY you can expect to see this burst of snow come through as the afternoon progresses.  Getting steady light snow here now.  I checked traffic cams near Hazleton and that is where it is sticking.  It had not yet reached MPO as of a short time ago.

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Better that temperatures are in the 40’s than 20’s for the annual Long Beach Polar Bear Plunge.

 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 5.9 inch sea level rise in South Florida since 1996 is a mix of both subsidence and rising sea levels.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/08/08/analysis-sea-level-rise-is-combining-with-other-factors-regularly-flood-miami/

According to this analysis, there was a 5.9-inch sea-level rise in Miami since 1996. For a city that floods at just 16 inches above flood stage, that jump, which is due to both sea-level rise and land subsidence, is highly consequential.

You might think that should correspond to a 38 percent increase in the amount of flooding Miami is seeing now versus 23 years ago, since 5.9 inches is 38 percent of 16 inches. In reality, there has been a 3.2-fold increase in how often Miami sees nuisance flooding. That’s a 320 percent jump.

The reason? Flooding is nonlinear. That means that even if the sea level rose at a constant rate, the impacts and flooding Miami residents would experience skyrocket disproportionately fast.

 

how much did it rise here?...the same?...

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27 minutes ago, uncle W said:

how much did it rise here?...the same?...

It looks like North Carolina to Florida are experiencing a faster rise than we are.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/flooding-hot-spots-why-seas-are-rising-faster-on-the-u.s.-east-coast

What Norfolk gets is that while sea level is rising globally at about a tenth of an inch per year, cities along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States — including Norfolk; Baltimore; Charleston, South Carolina; and Miami, among others — have suffered “sunny day” flooding from seas rising far faster than the global average. One study published last year shows that from 2011 to 2015, sea level rose up to 5 inches — an inch per year — in some locales from North Carolina to Florida. Given growing concerns over the flooding, scientists are now working to unravel the mystery of why some parts of the globe are experiencing so-called “sunny day” flooding that had not been expected for decades under conventional sea level rise projections. 

Along the southeastern coast of the U.S., researchers have zeroed in on three factors that have made this shoreline a regional hot spot of sea level rise. They include a slowing Gulf Stream, shifts in a major North Atlantic weather pattern, and the effects of El Niño climate cycles.

“These coastal areas are more vulnerable than they realize to short-term rapid acceleration of sea level rise,” says Andrea Dutton, a University of Florida geologist who studies the history of sea level fluctuations. “If they’re hanging their hat on sea level rise projections looking at the potential over decades, they need to refocus and think about the potential for short-term variability in that rate.”

Around the world, sea levels are not rising equally like water in a bathtub. The oceans are more akin to a rubber kiddie pool where the water sloshes around unevenly, often considerably higher on one side than another.

 

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4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Can confirm all rain here.

Would think you are seeing some wet flakes now with those returns on radar by you 

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i can see the snow in the distance from my apt window in the jc heights 

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5 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

I think many of us wish we had started earlier with better records. I did have some 95-96 stuff jotted down on the old Commodore 128 but it’s long gone LOL. I started a weather log back in 1999 where I recorded a lot but still not as meticulous as I am now which started when I moved here in May 2005. That said, work sometimes gets in the way of measuring snow plus I’m not pulling all nighters to measure exactly when a storm ends in the middle of the night. Anyway, here are some numbers, remember I’m only a couple miles as the crow flies from KMGJ:

KMGJ long term, last I checked: 42.2”

My average here since 2005: 46.8”

My 09-10 thru 18-19: 49.1”

I don't think I'd trust any of the small area airports for snowfall totals and averages like KMGJ.

Poughkeepsie use to report snowfall totals many years ago but they were always a joke. Maybe others like Julian that live near Poughkeepsie noticed the same thing. Just like Central Park under the domain of the Zookeeper, Poughkeepsie under reported or not at all much of the time. Whatever KMGJ averages reported are, add 5 inches IMO unless they are somehow the exception to the rule. Plus if the 42.2 is a 1981-2010 average, I'm sure they'll increase in the calculation next January for 1991-2020.

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 High temperatures beat guidance behind the warm front today. But the  Euro came closest.

 

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6 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

We actually have snow on the ground for Super Bowl Sunday out here.  Still steady light snow 32*.  0.3” new

Same here. Had just over .5" this morning. Now have getting steady snow for an hr.. And its sticking.  Will measure in a bit.

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43 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I don't think I'd trust any of the small area airports for snowfall totals and averages like KMGJ.

Poughkeepsie use to report snowfall totals many years ago but they were always a joke. Maybe others like Julian that live near Poughkeepsie noticed the same thing. Just like Central Park under the domain of the Zookeeper, Poughkeepsie under reported or not at all much of the time. Whatever KMGJ averages reported are, add 5 inches IMO unless they are somehow the exception to the rule. Plus if the 42.2 is a 1981-2010 average, I'm sure they'll increase in the calculation next January for 1991-2020.

KMGJ doesn’t measure snow as far as I know. I believe that total comes from the Crist Bros CoCoRaHS reports from Walden going back several decades. 

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