• Member Statistics

    15,773
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    mansour
    Newest Member
    mansour
    Joined
Rtd208

February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Not entirely true. February 2016 ended up being about 2° above normal and March 2016 ended up being the 4th warmest March on record. A horrible winter overall, with one historic storm for NYC and close by burbs (we in the North land got screwed by that one) that melted in most places in several days. That's not my idea of winter.

This!! I get so perplexed on this board and others when snow lovers are happy with a winter with one massive storm and a torch the rest of the way. I just don’t understand. Do they just like snow accumulations for bragging rights? I feel like half the people rooting for snow don’t do anything with it. I look forward to winter sports, hiking, skiing, snowshoeing, hell even ice fishing. I honestly would be happy with one 6 inch storm with cold to keep he snow around for three weeks than I would be with an 18 in her that melts in three days with a torch. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The warm waters in the western tropical Pacific essentially forced a strong Nina type pattern for North America. It wasn’t anywhere close to strong Nina index-wise but the pattern outcome was classic Nina. Cold west/North/Alaska, above normal snow NNE, PNW and Midwest, SE ridge and raging Pacific Jet dominate. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tomorrow will remain unseasonably mild. However, colder air will arrive late Thursday night or Friday. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around February 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March.

The SOI was +12.34 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.263.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 4, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February.

On February 24, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.850 (RMM). The February 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.985.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 93% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 40.0°.

Since 1869, New York City has had nine prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above in February. Seven (78%) of those cases occurred in 1990 or later and four (44%) occurred in 2000 or later. Three (33%) occurred in 2010 or later.

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The last 4 days of February are averaging 41degs., or 3degs. AN.

Month to date is  +5.7[40.6].        February should end at  +5.3[40.7].

The first 13 days of March are averaging (06Z,GFS) 42degs., or about 2.5degs.  AN., with minor snow threats, 2" on the 5th.     The T cut is 35/49 for the period.

48* here at 6am.      49* at 7am.      50* at 8am.        51* by Noon.        47* by 10pm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This winter will finish near the bottom of the list for winter hours below freezing. 
 

3F06963C-C595-4BA9-9275-DFAFDA7A474B.png.736ef6391ada4a9fb93512d64f564a53.png

 

DA324365-0201-4F85-BA92-53E1B1766AA4.png.bcd6022c087a98862ec885d6fc985b68.png
635EFC35-3880-4ACD-86A3-056B8089ABBB.png.0db1b9abf971e091dfbd9deb9264d00d.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/24/2020 at 5:54 PM, snowman19 said:

The large area of 90+ degree SSTs north of Australia with convection firing over it back in November should have been a huge red flag that the entire global heat budget and wavetrain forcing was going to get altered in a very big way. The same thing happened back in 2015-2016 with the super El Niño, when ENSO region 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November and certain people were still using 57-58, 02-03, and 09-10 as “analogs” and forecasting a very cold and snowy winter in the east because the super nino was more “west-based” than 97-98.....

Right, but it's more obvious when it shows up, but I didn't react until I saw it.  What I'm saying is that there should have been people identifying that risk ahead of time, before the rapid warm-up in early November instead of seeing it in Dec and going 'oh crap'.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NYC needs 0.1 to  get out of 1st place for the earliest end to the measurable snowfall season on record.

1-18-2020....2.1....so far

1-19-2002....3.0

2-01-1878....2.0

2-12-2012....0.2

2-12-1925....1.3

2-15-1986....0.1

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

The season long torch is helping them immensely. 

The waters arent even frozen over yet. This will be a crushing storm for many lake areas. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Not entirely true. February 2016 ended up being about 2° above normal and March 2016 ended up being the 4th warmest March on record. A horrible winter overall, with one historic storm for NYC (28-31 inches) and close by burbs (we in the North land got screwed by that one) that melted in most places in several days. That's not my idea of winter.

I didn't say it was a good winter...but the pattern ended up a hybrid between the cold/snowy west based nino analogs and the warmer more east based super ninos.   It certainly was warmer and less snowy than the analogs like 58, 03, 10 but it did feature more "chances" at snow in the mid atlantic with cold periods than 1998.  All of them other than the one big HECS missed NYC but that details while very important to ground truth doesn't mean a lot wrt to the larger scale pattern.

There was a weak wave that missed NYC to the south right before the HECS.  There were small accumulations in VA and MD from that.  Another wave right after got suppressed and failed to amplify and no one got anything.  I got 8" here in MD from a storm on Feb 9-10th that stayed south of NYC.  Then there was a 4-8" snowstorm in VA and southern MD that missed to the south of NYC a week later and then an ice storm right after that.  Then there were 2 threats in March, one the first week and then one around the 19th that put down some snow to the south of NYC and were threats to be a bigger storm but failed to phase and amplify.  

There were several periods of cold/snow threats that winter...mid January, another mid February, and then 2 cold snaps in March with threats.  In between there were full on torch periods that skewed the mean temps very warm.  But that was different from 1998 when there were very few periods where it was cold enough for a snow threat.  NYC got screwed over and most of the other threats failed to phase or amplify and stayed south of NYC but there were snow threats.  IN the end it was probably way closer to 98 or 83 than 2010 but it did feature more cold periods and snow threats in the mid atlantic than those years.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

This!! I get so perplexed on this board and others when snow lovers are happy with a winter with one massive storm and a torch the rest of the way. I just don’t understand. Do they just like snow accumulations for bragging rights? I feel like half the people rooting for snow don’t do anything with it. I look forward to winter sports, hiking, skiing, snowshoeing, hell even ice fishing. I honestly would be happy with one 6 inch storm with cold to keep he snow around for three weeks than I would be with an 18 in her that melts in three days with a torch. 

Read my post above.  My comment was about the pattern and nothing to do with what I want, whether that winter was good/bad, or snowfall totals.  Snowfall is very fluky and can be a bad way to determine pattern similarities  alone.  

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Read my post above.  My comment was about the pattern and nothing to do with what I want, whether that winter was good/bad, or snowfall totals.  Snowfall is very fluky and can be a bad way to determine pattern similarities  alone.  

Oh my comment wasn’t about you I didn’t see your post but in general I know a lot of people that just go off snow totals. One big storms makes the year for them and I’m just perplexed as a skier. That’s all. Sorry for any confusion. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/25/2020 at 4:48 PM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Not entirely true. February 2016 ended up being about 2° above normal and March 2016 ended up being the 4th warmest March on record. A horrible winter overall, with one historic storm for NYC (28-31 inches) and close by burbs (we in the North land got screwed by that one) that melted in most places in several days. That's not my idea of winter.

well NYC did have the rare below zero low on Valentines Day.  We had other heavy snow events besides the big blockbuster though, one of those brought down a crane in the city.  It was JFK's 40 inch / 40 degree winter

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

well NYC did have the rare below zero low on Valentines Day.  We had other heavy snow events besides the big blockbuster though, one of those brought down a crane in the city.  It was JFK's 40 inch / 40 degree winter

Central Park had the 27.5 inches from the January 23 storm and 5.3 inches for the entire season other than the storm with a 32.8 total. Combine that with the above normal temps  in January and February, the warmest December ever exceeding the second warmest by 7 degrees, and the 4th warmest March ever, it still baffles me how anyone can call that a good winter. To each his own though.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Central Park had the 27.5 inches from the January 23 storm and 5.3 inches for the entire season other than the storm with a 32.8 total. Combine that with the above normal temps  in January and February, the warmest December ever exceeding the second warmest by 7 degrees, and the 4th warmest March ever, it still baffles me how anyone can call that a good winter. To each his own though.

it was 40-50 inches from Queens county on east across Long Island, I'd call it a B- winter but only because of the extreme warmth in December, aside from that it was a B+

Getting a 30 inch snowstorm here was amazing- I may never see that again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/25/2020 at 5:56 PM, MJO812 said:

WNY keeps winning 

FB_IMG_1582670991691.jpg

My family has a house in Chautauqua near Jamestown. The average yearly snowfall is 120 inches. Most of that usually comes from lake effect. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Colder air will arrive in tomorrow with winds gusting past 40 mph. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns.

Winter 2019-2020 became the 11th winter on record that saw New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 26. Mean total snowfall for the 10 prior cases was 7.8" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 70% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 100% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1928-29 with 13.8" seasonal snowfall.

Winter 2019-2020 is the 6th winter on record that has seen Philadelphia receive less than 2" seasonal snowfall through February 26. Mean total snowfall for the 6 prior cases was 2.9" vs. the historic mean figure of 22.6". In addition, 100% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 16% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1889-90 with 7.4" seasonal snowfall.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around February 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March.

The SOI was +16.04 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.550.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 5, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February.

On February 25, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.736 (RMM). The February 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.850.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 98% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 40.2°.

Since 1869, New York City has had nine prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above in February. Seven (78%) of those cases occurred in 1990 or later and four (44%) occurred in 2000 or later. Three (33%) occurred in 2010 or later.

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The last 3 days of February are averaging 36degs., or 2degs. BN.(used 47/33 for today)

Month to date is  +5.8[40.8].         February should end at  +5.0[40.3].

The first 14 days of March are averaging (06Z,GFS) 46degs., maybe 7degs. AN, with no snow and just one winter like day near March 08----that is all.

44* here and breezy at 6am.       43* at 7am.        41* by 9am.        40* by 10am.      39* at 10:30am, but 41* at 11am.        43* by 4pm.        35* by 6:30pm.    32* by 9pm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This winter is another example of our climate becoming more subtropical. Single digit snowfall is typical for North Carolina. Average temperatures near 40 degrees are normal for Richmond, VA. The average July temperature last summer near 80 degrees is also common for the Richmond, VA area. Same goes for the record number of 75 degree dew points last few summers at places like JFK. Such a high number of days are common for that region also.

  • Like 4
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This winter is another example of our climate becoming more subtropical. Single digit snowfall is typical for North Carolina. Average temperatures near 40 degrees are normal for Richmond, VA. The average July temperature last summer near 80 degrees is also common for the Richmond, VA area. Same goes for the record number of 75 degree dew points last few summers at places like JFK. Such a high number of days are common for that region also.

It's made central air conditioning somewhat essential around here as well.  Houses built in the 50's-70's around here often did not have it b/c it was not needed.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It's made central air conditioning somewhat essential around here as well.  Houses built in the 50's-70's around here often did not have it b/c it was not needed.   

Especially hillside/hilltop and ridgeline homes where they were more likely to have a breeze. We would have to live in our basement a few weeks every year if we didn't have central ac, it stays at or below 70 down there almost all the time especially if I block the only south facing window.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Especially hillside/hilltop and ridgeline homes where they were more likely to have a breeze. We would have to live in our basement a few weeks every year if we didn't have central ac, it stays at or below 70 down there almost all the time especially if I block the only south facing window.

yeah our basement is always a nice 65 in the summer

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.