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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Mt. Holly now strongly indicating most of NJ at least should get into wind advisory criteria with 45-50mph gusts. 

Long Island could see higher gusts than that since it will be closer to the strongest LLJ near frontal passage. The warmer surface temperatures should really steepen the low level lapse rates for good mixing along and behind the cold front. Euro has highs in the low 60’s.

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2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I tend to agree there could be some strong winds and damage with this. It’s been relatively calm for a couple weeks wind wise. I’m looking forward to enjoying the right side of the storm in Vermont tomorrow 

What do you think about snow vs. ice for the southern part of VT? Trying to decide if Okemo will be decent by Saturday or do they get hung up in sleet/ice too long. The norther part of the state looks to get dumped on but I only have enough time/energy for a day trip. 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Long Island could see higher gusts than that since it will be closer to the strongest LLJ near frontal passage. The warmer surface surface temperatures should really steepen the low level lapse rates for good mixing along and behind the cold front. Euro has highs in the low 60’s.

Agree probably closer to 60-65mph for parts of LI.

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Through 9 am, New York City had received 0.43" rain. That brought year-to-date precipitation to 2.43", which is 1.87" below normal. However, another system will likely bring 0.50"-1.50" rain late today into tomorrow to much of the Middle Atlantic region. A few locations could see locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00".

That system was already producing heavy rain in parts of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley. As of 9:35 am, Knoxville, TN had picked up 2.22" rain. That set a new daily record for February 6. The previous record was 1.75", which was set in 2004. Over the past two days, Knoxville has received 5.04" rain.

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1 hour ago, tdp146 said:

What do you think about snow vs. ice for the southern part of VT? Trying to decide if Okemo will be decent by Saturday or do they get hung up in sleet/ice too long. The norther part of the state looks to get dumped on but I only have enough time/energy for a day trip. 

Take the extra 45 minutes, gain some elevation and latitude and head to Killington. Should be epic there. 

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46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through 9 am, New York City had received 0.43" rain. That brought year-to-date precipitation to 2.43", which is 1.87" below normal. However, another system will likely bring 0.50"-1.50" rain late today into tomorrow to much of the Middle Atlantic region. A few locations could see locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00".

That system was already producing heavy rain in parts of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley. As of 9:35 am, Knoxville, TN had picked up 2.22" rain. That set a new daily record for February 6. The previous record was 1.75", which was set in 2004. Over the past two days, Knoxville has received 5.04" rain.

Looks fairly active for next few weeks, wouldn't be surprised if we flip to above normal before month ends. 

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Parts of CT could challenge their all-time February record lowest pressure on Friday.

 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Parts of CT could challenge their all-time February record lowest pressure on Friday.

Latest GFS looks even lower at 970 near same spot. 

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Latest GFS looks even lower at 970 near same spot. 

The February record for the western half of CT was set just 10 years ago. At that time we were setting records for the -AO instead of the +AO now.

 

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10 minutes ago, TriPol said:

A record positive AO, with a positive NAO in February. This is not even close to being our winter. 

If the new JMA is correct, there will be no March pattern flip this year, it’s warm east cool west/-PNA from now right through the Equinox

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4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the new JMA is correct, there will be no March pattern flip this year, it’s warm east cool west/-PNA from now right through the Equinox

I would actually enjoy a warm March and April if that's to be the case.    We'd likely see temps in the 60's and 70's if you take what we're getting now and extrapolate it forward

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11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the new JMA is correct, there will be no March pattern flip this year, it’s warm east cool west/-PNA from now right through the Equinox

The PNA loses relevance after Feb 20. In fact snowstorms in the east are more common under -PNA from late Feb through March.

I'm more interested to see if the AO/NAO flips by then as they're still relevant until late March.

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2 hours ago, tdp146 said:

What do you think about snow vs. ice for the southern part of VT? Trying to decide if Okemo will be decent by Saturday or do they get hung up in sleet/ice too long. The norther part of the state looks to get dumped on but I only have enough time/energy for a day trip. 

I’m in the same boat, share house is at Stratton, but I do have an ikon and could head to sugar bush. I think southern Vermont is in for another ice storm. But 6” on the back side could make it fun. There is allot more snow up there right now then You would think. 

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CMC follows the deepening low trend, 969mb just north of the city. 

Has period of very strong gusts (60mph+) especially on LI and coastal sections as low passes through.

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Hi...

Just posted a preferred OBS only topic for wind damage on Friday.  All the posts herein on wind damage I agree with. 

I don't know if a Gravity Wave will occur with this low pressure development but some of the cues are there including an excessively strong jet into the ridge position ahead of a negatively tilting and shortening wave length, with what seems to me to be a shallow inversion north of a warm front.  I don't want to stretch the science, and others on here may not see enough precursor information in the modeling. I think we'll know by 11AM tomorrow if this will happen by checking upstream pressure fall-rise couplets, unusual wave like striations in some of the radar data (as i recall), some sort of upstream convection along with intense snowfall rates, for an hour or two, developing along the spine of the Appalachians PA northward.  I'll be working so after 6AM I cannot monitor. 

Also,  while its going be very windy for a time, not sure if I see this as a sting jet where I'd like to see a developing closed low at 500mb assist in the wraparound strong downward transfer.

2423P/6

 

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Those excessive rain totals earlier forecasted have gone by the wayside....now look to finish with around 1.25" from last night thru tomorrow midday, more s less n.  So far 0.64" here.

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Wow at the Nam, very sting-jet like.

That's widespread 50-60+mph gusts if it's correct. Temps near 60F ahead of the front with steep lapse rates for nice transfer potential.

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Weeklies flip to a cold March this run. Looks like some -nao also lol.
I have more faith in getting any snow in March than February which is just sad to think about.

Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Weeklies flip to a cold March this run. Looks like some -nao also lol.

decent model trends today with next weekend looking colder and now the weeklies-still fantasy until we're within 5 days IMO

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

decent model trends today with next weekend looking colder and now the weeklies-still fantasy until we're within 5 days IMO

Yep. It does have that cold shot next weekend with the boundary moving south of us.

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Wind advisories up for basically the entire area tomorrow afternoon.

From OKX late afternoon AFD:

With the low rapidly deepening as it moves away, quick pressure rises with the onset of cold air advection will produce gusty conditions in the afternoon and evening with gusts continuing well into the night. The strongest gusts will be in the afternoon and early evening
when modeled 850mb winds range mostly 45-65 kt. Will issue a wind advisory for all
zones 18z-00z. Gusts up to around 50 mph are anticipated. Even some coastal areas
may reach advisory criteria based on sustained winds of 30 mph.

 

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GFS Cross Section for 1pm Tomorrow:            Pressure looks to be 975mb, with 30-35 knot winds from WSW.        The LP is moving 50-60mph to the northeast itself, so seems like a short severe event and no more.       NYC is at the center.    Courtesy of AccuWeather.

https://proa.accuweather.com/pro/model-grads-pro.asp?mt=12&mod=gfs&gv0=C&hr=30&gs=crosssect&mv8=scheme:wind&map=conus&mv5=1000&mv6=300&mv7=40.6,-74.5,40.7,-73.5&uid=4060-74504070-7350wind

NAM has wild T swing of a steady 22 degree increase  during  the AM, [38-60] then a one hour 17 degree swoon around 1pm to 43 degrees.

This is an important message from NY Alert

HEADLINE: Wind Advisory issued February 06 at 3:37PM EST until February 07 at 7:00PM EST by NWS New York City - Upton

DESCRIPTION: ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...
* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
expected.
* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
and southeast New York.
* WHEN...From 1 PM to 7 PM EST Friday.
* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
result.

INSTRUCTIONS: Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City)

 

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

Those excessive rain totals earlier forecasted have gone by the wayside....now look to finish with around 1.25" from last night thru tomorrow midday, more s less n.  So far 0.64" here.

Good. Who needs it.

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