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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020

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3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Non event? Lol ok there buddy this is easily a 2 inch event for the city which would be the biggest for the city. Still far away though 

I think the upside for the city is about 2-3 inches,  I get where you are coming from in this winter that would be a huge event lol. However I'd say more likely about an inch for the city.

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33 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Non event? Lol ok there buddy this is easily a 2 inch event for the city which would be the biggest for the city. Still far away though 

I don't think the city breaks an inch.

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3 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Newark is maybe 20 minutes north of me and yet there are many times it gets a few inches more

latitude sometimes really matters.  Recall 3/1 and 3/3 earlier this year, where most of us in northern Middlesex County got 9-11" of snow, combined (I got 10.5"), while folks 5-10 miles south in East Brunswick and Sayreville only got 2-4" of snow/sleet with some rain.  I even drove around the morning after one of those to see the gradient from Metuchen (5.5") to Highland Park (3") to New Brunswick (2") to East Brunswick (1").  

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6gfs continues to indicate very low qpf nnj into lower Hudson valley. Best guess 1 to maybe 3 inches of snow...to some drizzle or light rain. Overall this storm is more of a nuisance event.

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5 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

anyone have the late nite Euro ? or any other model , asking for some friends :clap:

The Euro backed off a bit on snowfall for the 95 corridor and towards the coast vs. the last couple of runs.  Interestingly, the NWS offices kind of flip-flopped with their forecast snowfall, with the Philly office decreasing snowfall vs. yesterday's forecast, while the NYC office upped the snowfall forecast a fair amount.  The two offices are moderately far apart at the boundaries between the offices (Passaic/Essex/Union/SI vs. Sussex/Morris/Somerset/Middlesex) - hopefully these discontinuities are cleared up before the event or someone will be wrong, lol.  

sn10_acc.us_city_nyc.png

 

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

 

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

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Good Thursday morning everyone (Jan 16).  Here's a few graphics I used for a briefing this morning.  NYC doesn't look good for an inch but for Morris and western Passaic Counties westward and northward including Orange County...even though it's not big, its a travel problem for ~ 5 hours during Saturday afternoon-evening due to temps hovering in the upper teens to mid 20's during the snowfall out there. NWS ensemble graphics are appended for 1"+ and 4"+.  The EPS is courtesy of Weather.US and the ECMWF, and also is appended for the chance of 3+ inches. This differs from the NWS and I suspect is less detailed on terrain and its impact on qpf.  I noticed the UK and EPS/GEFS all favor heaviest qpf in two stripes...one is I78 area southward and then well to our north.  Surface temps and timing of snowfall will determine Central Park accumulation (if any). I wont be reposting til Friday morning...allowing models to fluctuate. 638A/16

Screen Shot 2020-01-16 at 5.24.36 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-01-16 at 5.25.31 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-01-16 at 5.01.32 AM.png

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If these models hold, it follows the pattern that the models have had all season

 

week out storm looks ok->storm looks marginal for extended period->storm with marginal setup looks better 2-3 days out -> models finally give in to negative fundamentals and show a non event for NYC-> actual event is a non winter event

 

Anyone else notice this thus far this season? It is almost as if we as a forum are looking at too closely at every run and dismissing the basic fundamentals of a marginal (or worse) set up in the name of hope 

 

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51 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

If these models hold, it follows the pattern that the models have had all season

 

week out storm looks ok->storm looks marginal for extended period->storm with marginal setup looks better 2-3 days out -> models finally give in to negative fundamentals and show a non event for NYC-> actual event is a non winter event

 

Anyone else notice this thus far this season? It is almost as if we as a forum are looking at too closely at every run and dismissing the basic fundamentals of a marginal (or worse) set up in the name of hope 

 

Agree with you here. This was always a 1-3 inch event, at best, as you can see the models are correcting warmer with less snow as we get closer, theme of this winter so far, expect this correction to continue through tomorrow. Would not surprise me one bit if NYC sees less than an inch and the N & W suburbs see 1-2 inches at best before a changeover. This setup was very, very marginal from day one

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Very marginal situation and I think best case scenario here goes something like getting some snow at 33-34 in the city for a few hours.  Gonna be tough to stay colder than that with that SW wind past say 21-22z.  Think if you're a bit further north in CT, Hudson Valley, NW jersey...better chance to get yourself a couple of inches before it flips over.

 

Implied, but the mid-levels and even most of the lower levels are OK.  The issue is sfc to like 950mb with high gone.

 

The main issue the Euro is presenting isn't really the temp profile early on.  It's more the precip being slower to arrive and losing out on getting some needed precip with the colder air still in place.  Think early ballpark of like 1-3 north of the city, coating to maybe 2" at the absolute highest in the city (bias for lesser end of range) and less than that south.  

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Yeah I think the biggest issue is the fact the waa  is going north of the metro. So we are left with a band of snow for those south of CT. Best forcing is well north of the area 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It actually goes beyond this season. Amplified systems usually adjust north over time. So when the storm is originally modeled to go through the Great Lakes, we are in a marginal spot to begin with. Any warmer or northward shift just adds to the milder outcome.That’s why our best snowstorms are often forecast to be just or our south or east in the long range. As we get closer, the heaviest snows begin to creep into our area. You can go back and look at our best snowstorms and see this forecast evolution. 

Yep. Bad patterns bring bad results. 

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20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah I think the biggest issue is the fact the waa  is going north of the metro. So we are left with a band of snow for those south of CT. Best forcing is well north of the area 

That’s often another problem with these-the initial warm advection precip overshoots our area to the north/west.
 

Not expecting much with this anywhere near the coast at this point, if it’s anything more than an inch be happy. The delayed start is another downer on this-more time for the cold airmass to erode. 

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I think the northern portions of CT and as you get further north in the Hudson valley can do much better.  Decent forcing, less of a sfc issue.  Get some elevation and you're probably looking 4-8".  I do still think even 20-50 miles north of the city you're gonna accumulate a couple of inches for what it's worth.  This is just a pretty tough/marginal situation for anyone in the city, the Island and a chunk of central Jersey.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It actually goes beyond this season. Amplified systems usually adjust north over time. So when the storm is originally modeled to go through the Great Lakes, we are in a marginal spot to begin with. Any warmer or northward shift just adds to the milder outcome.That’s why our best snowstorms are often forecast to be just or our south or east in the long range. As we get closer, the heaviest snows begin to creep into our area. You can go back and look at our best snowstorms and see this forecast evolution. 

Blizzard of 96.  Was forecast to miss NYC until about 24 hrs out....great example there.

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The main issue I see cuitting back totals is the lack of qpf more than temps, this was always a snow to rain situation but earlier runs were showing much more qpf, storm is getting drier and drier

If anything the recent runs on the American models have been colder, this is starting to look like mainly a snow event Northwest of the city before precip shuts down, the city is very much on the fence with precip type.

 

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There is going to be a time frame from early afternoon until early evening when most if not all accumulation will happen. I still think central park sees a slushy inch or 2, just north of NYC 2 maybe 3, then further N and W into NW Jersey and HV 3-4, isolated 5. 

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I agree the person yesterday who said this could be mainly rain at JFK and mainly snow at EWR. The mixing line is really right over northern parts of the city on the models during the main precip. However the precip is not heavy enough where it will be 6 inches vs 1 inch but given the impact of evaporational cooling and no sign of a sneaky mid layer showing up as of now I think 1-3 inches from the Bronx north is a solid call right now. South of there it's more iffy. 

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12 minutes ago, sferic said:

What is the qpf for the catskills for this storm let's say at KMSV?

 

Thanks !

Generally looks to be 0.50" - 0.70" per the euro.

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52 minutes ago, sferic said:

What is the qpf for the catskills for this storm let's say at KMSV?

 

Thanks !

Unfortunely drying up there too. I'll be up at my place between Roscoe and Delhi ~2000' Sunday into Monday. Hopefully theres a solid hit so at least it'll have a wintry look.

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Unfortunely drying up there too. I'll be up at my place between Roscoe and Delhi ~2000' Sunday into Monday. Hopefully theres a solid hit so at least it'll have a wintry look.
Relocating in the not too distant future between Delhi and Walton and getting 500 to 600 feet higher in elevation too!

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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I’m going with 2-4” for my neck of the woods which is basically the 287 corridor. 1-3” for 95 looks reasonable with a trace for the city and areas further East. Once you get up by I-84 and into the Binghamton and Albany CWA’s I think you’re in the 6-10” range.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I’m going with 2-4” for my neck of the woods which is basically the 287 corridor. 1-3” for 95 looks reasonable with a trace for the city and areas further East. Once you get up by I-84 and into the Binghamton and Albany CWA’s I think you’re in the 6-10” range.

Sound good, I’m thinking 3-4” in my neck of the woods.

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