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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020


wdrag
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That's a nice run by the euro. .6 l e from my area with 4in of that being snow I'll take that any day. My feeling is that the southerly flow at the surface is very weak until we're several hours into the precipitation field and as others have posted 850s stay below 32 degrees the entire storm. Temperatures are going to struggle to get above freezing until we're well Into the Storm especially the further away from the coast you are

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10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

850's well below 0  still well entrenched over the whole area at 12z Saturday - also Sunday 12Z - anybody have 0Z Sunday 850 ? 

850tw.conus.png

850 do get above 0 Celsius between 8 and 9 p.m. for most of the area but barely 4 northwest suburbs so I stand corrected in my post above

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

the city is not getting 6 from this.  Maybe 2 to possibly 3 inches.   (which would be a huge win)

3-4 is not out of the question if this thing trends a little colder. It’s very cold and dry before the storm moves in. And the gradient between the dry air and precipitation could halt any warm air advection before we thump 3-4 inches of snow! It’s happened before it could happen again. 
3-6 meaning region wide not Central Park!

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3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

3-4 is not out of the question if this thing trends a little colder. It’s very cold and dry before the storm moves in. And the gradient between the dry air and precipitation could halt any warm air advection before we thump 3-4 inches of snow! It’s happened before it could happen again. 
3-6 meaning region wide not Central Park!

N and W for sure on the higher end.   

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If someone could explain how both the Euro & NAM came in colder but you have the LP up in the great lakes and the high goes from NE of us to off the MA coast but somehow the cold air stays longer. How is this happening? Can't be from the low DP or evap cooling.

Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk

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Just now, Barman49 said:

If someone could explain how both the Euro & NAM came in colder but you have the LP up in the great lakes and the high goes from NE of us to off the MA coast but somehow the cold air stays longer. How is this happening? Can't be from the low DP or evap cooling.

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It’s because the primary is coming in weaker, decreasing the warm air invasion. 

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7 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

3-4 is not out of the question if this thing trends a little colder. It’s very cold and dry before the storm moves in. And the gradient between the dry air and precipitation could halt any warm air advection before we thump 3-4 inches of snow! It’s happened before it could happen again. 
3-6 meaning region wide not Central Park!

I hate to be the one to tell you this but there is going to be a 65 mph SW jet at 850 mb at hour 78 on the 18z NAM.  That jet is not going to be bringing in colder air either.  

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It’s because the primary is coming in weaker, decreasing the warm air invasion. 

I get that part if the HP stayed up in NE but it doesn't it's SE of us. That's shifting the wind to the south. I understand the front end might be colder.

 

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36 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

No it’s definitely colder. Precip looks good too. Don’t see how this isn’t a better run for the majority in this sub forum.

 

28 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Its colder 

 

33 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

What are you talking about! It’s for sure colder. 

When did I say its warmer? It's not any better than 12z anywhere outside of the boros and Nassau county. 

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