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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020


wdrag
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Not to be a pessimist (or maybe a realist), but based on the last several years living in Manhattan during storms hovering at or just above freezing, have my doubts on how much will accumulate over here.  Reeeeally hope I'm wrong and that the cold we are experiencing today/overnight provides enough of a countermeasure!

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Good Friday morning everyone, Jan 17.  I wish my confidence was greater for Saturday.  Concerned about qpf modeling... and as often mentioned by group members, southwest flow event, (especially 850MB)...just hard to get my hopes up.  I expect 2 inch minimum just north and west of NYC. The city I think should still be snowing at 7PM but surface temps govern accums.  FGEN embedded in the ridge well ahead of the short wave should develop a band or 2 of moderate snow for an hour or 2 Saturday afternoon-early evening. 

Modeling later today and tomorrow may help...  anyway, with less than 3" so far in Central Park...  if an inch falls....that would be noteworthy.

I've added some ensemble graphics.  The first two are courtesy NWS ensembling system for snowfall.  The last is the ECMWF EPS chance for 3+ inches courtesy of Weather.US  posted 718AM, data gathered around 5AM. 

Screen Shot 2020-01-17 at 5.12.48 AM.png

Screen_Shot_2020-01-17_at_5_26.37_AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-01-17 at 5.38.25 AM.png

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23 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

Very marginal situation and I think best case scenario here goes something like getting some snow at 33-34 in the city for a few hours.  Gonna be tough to stay colder than that with that SW wind past say 21-22z.  Think if you're a bit further north in CT, Hudson Valley, NW jersey...better chance to get yourself a couple of inches before it flips over.

 

Implied, but the mid-levels and even most of the lower levels are OK.  The issue is sfc to like 950mb with high gone.

 

The main issue the Euro is presenting isn't really the temp profile early on.  It's more the precip being slower to arrive and losing out on getting some needed precip with the colder air still in place.  Think early ballpark of like 1-3 north of the city, coating to maybe 2" at the absolute highest in the city (bias for lesser end of range) and less than that south.  

 

I think I'll nudge areas just north of the city to 2-4", keep coating to 2" for the city, Island and south.  You head further up and gain some elevation in and northern CT you'll find those 3-6"  type of amounts.  Thicknesses will be rising throughout the event and you'll still have low level warmth to deal with after 21-22z or so. 

 

I still have a tough time in the city seeing anything more than 2" in a WAA type of scenario like we have here.

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2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

long island is really on the line here...… :grinch:

Still think it’ll be forgettable/lousy in general on the island other than maybe north of the Northern State or Rt 25 where it could be a couple degrees colder for most of it than the south shore. Maybe an inch on the south shore and 2” on the north shore isn’t exactly nail biting. 

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12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Still think it’ll be forgettable/lousy in general on the island other than maybe north of the Northern State or Rt 25 where it could be a couple degrees colder for most of it than the south shore. Maybe an inch on the south shore and 2” on the north shore isn’t exactly nail biting. 

Agree with this

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31 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Still think it’ll be forgettable/lousy in general on the island other than maybe north of the Northern State or Rt 25 where it could be a couple degrees colder for most of it than the south shore. Maybe an inch on the south shore and 2” on the north shore isn’t exactly nail biting. 

Yep.   The writing has been on the wall for days around here.  

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12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I’ll go 1-2 for the metro and 2-4 north and west. Long Island c-1. I think sw ct will do the best as in top end of the 2-4.

I would think the HV does better than SW CT in this setup. I guess will find out tomorrow.

So much anticipation for a six hour event that will be minimal for many. This is what patterns like this do.

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1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Not sure how people are seeing 2-4 when QPF doesn't even get above .3 in some spots and temps are marginal. 

This is 1-3 at best, my guess is coating-2. 

(for the immediate metro)

The front end thump is slightly more impressive on the 12z models. The faster the precip comes in the better. 

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The general idea that most of the New York City Metro Area, including adjacent sections of New Jersey, will receive 1"-3" snow tomorrow (lesser amounts on Long Island, especially Suffolk County) has remained remarkably stable on the guidance. The RGEM remains a high outlier (showing > 4" in New York City). At 0z, the GGEM was a low outlier showing barely more than an inch. The 1/17 0z and 12z runs of the HREF ensemble system indicated 2"-4" across the area, including Nassau County.

Locations such as Albany, Binghamton, Poughkeepsie, and Scranton remain in line for 3"-6" snow.

Select seasonal snowfall through January 16 was:

Albany: 32.1" (5.9" above normal)
Allentown: 3.4" (7.4" below normal)
Binghamton: 31.5" (4.7" below normal)
Bridgeport: 5.7" (4.2" below normal)
Islip: 4.7" (4.7" below normal)
New York City: 2.7" (5.9" below normal)
Newark: 5.1" (4.7" below normal)
Philadelphia: 0.1" (6.5" below normal)
Scranton: 15.7" (2.2" below normal)

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While this mostly concerns interior areas where p-type isn't as much of a worry, it's worth noting that although QPF has increased a little at 12z, the soundings also got a fair bit worse for snow growth. It may cancel out. That's a lot of lift and vertical real estate now focused in the riming layer with the warmer mid-level temps.

Rvi0Vea.png

76EWhwS.png

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35 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

While this mostly concerns interior areas where p-type isn't as much of a worry, it's worth noting that although QPF has increased a little at 12z, the soundings also got a fair bit worse for snow growth. It may cancel out. That's a lot of lift and vertical real estate now focused in the riming layer with the warmer mid-level temps.

Rvi0Vea.png

76EWhwS.png

More needles than dendrites? 

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35 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

While this mostly concerns interior areas where p-type isn't as much of a worry, it's worth noting that although QPF has increased a little at 12z, the soundings also got a fair bit worse for snow growth. It may cancel out. That's a lot of lift and vertical real estate now focused in the riming layer with the warmer mid-level temps.

Rvi0Vea.png

76EWhwS.png

Yes, and I think 3-4 inches is still a good call for us in Mid HV. I would be surprised with anything more than that. 

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