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Everything posted by Enigma

  1. IF we were to snow along I-95, we'd be relying entirely on rapid SLP intensification coupled with very heavy precip. Could be elevation driven. This reminds me of April Fools storm 1997.
  2. EPS is not a benchmark track. SLP heads from DC,to PHL to NYC. Tidbits image grossly misrepresents reality.
  3. EPS is a nothing burger. Takes the SLP into PHL. Coastal plan gets inundated with wind and high surf.
  4. SN+ in Hunterdon County. Instantly sticking to all surfaces. Healthy dendritic growth.
  5. Adamantly disagree with your limited assessment.
  6. Synoptics. Get a handle on it already. This is NOT a 287 event. Everyone snows heavily for 2-4 hours with 1-1.5 in per hour rates. It turns to some rain. Everyone on the board accumulates.
  7. SWFE are classically overrunning events with precipitation developing over the gradient/baroclinic zone. Very different than a warm front running squarely into a CAD signature.
  8. Absolutely incorrect. Completely different setups. Coastal snow will breakout with isentropic lift from advancing warm front running into a very decent CAD signature. Chicago is none of that. This isn't a SWFE or gradient type system.
  9. Synoptics please. Likely I said yesterday, textbook thump 2-5 area wide, then sleet, quickly to rain.
  10. Uptown Afd is a perfect example of professionals not utilizing synoptic experience and common sense. Friday evening is text book quick hitting 2-5 type event, no questions asked.
  11. Non event for the board. Even ACY will have mixing issues.
  12. This feels identical to 97-98. Early season threats Nov into early dec that never materialized, followed by a complete lack of winter until one minor March event.
  13. We deny because 1. we've had warming like this before and 2. It's not manmade. There's no reason to change our lifestyles or act as if we'll change the outcome. People need to stop being hysterical.
  14. Blah blah blah. We've heard this tired story before. It's a hoax. Paris Agreement would have taken American dollars to foreign countries. Meanwhile, China and India profit, and don't cut their emissions? Cmon. Liberal millionaires purchasing real estate at water's edge? Cmon.
  15. In the past 5 years, we've become too reliant on algorithm based products. Fundamentally sound forecasting through use of experience and avoidance of fantasy, has gone out the window.
  16. Real ice events begin with ST's in the 20s and DP's in the single digits. Non-event for majority of this board. Hunterdon County. 32F. Light PL and ZR
  17. Not impressive by any means. Below average. Yes.
  18. 210 hr is not fantasy by any stretch of the imagination. This is a real threat. Important panels begin as early as 168 hr out.
  19. The changes between runs could not be more extreme. HP over Upper MW on 12z. HP moving off the EC on 18z.
  20. Moderate snow. Everything snow covered with 1/2 inch, except roads. Hunterdon County