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George BM

January Banter 2020

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37 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

YES. Forgot about my ancient enemy - the ground.

4” soil temps are practically body temperature 

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Why are people so concerned about how much sun there is this morning? It wont make a damn bit of difference come game time.

What really matters is the thermal profile just above the surface and the dewpoints.  I was lol at the posts obsessing over a couple degree difference in surface temps last night and this morning but didn’t want to spoil the fun in the main thread. 

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This "4 Year Memory" popped up in my FB feed this morning. Not a bad job sniffing things out well in advance. Was just off a few days once it slowed things down. It may have even been the lp near TX and old Mexico that ended up being the storm:

 

FB_IMG_1578400913565.jpg

Not sure if that wave slowed that much or it ended to the next one but what guidance nailed at impressive leads was that the pattern was loaded and any decent wave within that time period was likely to produce a big mid Atlantic storm. 

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11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

4” soil temps are practically body temperature 

Is it cheating if I bought up all the remaining dip n dots and sprinkle them all over my yard before every storm? 

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25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What really matters is the thermal profile just above the surface and the dewpoints.  I was lol at the posts obsessing over a couple degree difference in surface temps last night and this morning but didn’t want to spoil the fun in the main thread. 

Not sure if that wave slowed that much or it ended to the next one but what guidance nailed at impressive leads was that the pattern was loaded and any decent wave within that time period was likely to produce a big mid Atlantic storm. 

What kills the east of I-95 area with this further north track is the lower level temps. Look at 925 mb and its above freezing through much of the event. It is not a good setup for advecting in colder/drier air from the north either. Unless the better forcing/heavier precip gets in here, its going to be white rain for the last hour or so as modeled. Most guidance has the best lift  from central into NE MD now though. Perfect setup for a quick thump up your way.

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10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

What kills the east of I-95 area with this further north track is the lower level temps. Look at 925 mb and its above freezing through much of the event. It is not a good setup for advecting in colder/drier air from the north either. Unless the better forcing/heavier precip gets in here, its going to be white rain for the last hour or so as modeled. Most guidance has the best lift  from central into NE MD now though. Perfect setup for a quick thump up your way.

Agreed, but the temp right at the surface hours before an event isn’t always a good indicator of the boundary layer during the storm. Due to an inversion it was 32 at my house but 28 a few hundred yards away down the mountain.  So does that mean they will be 4 degrees colder during the storm?  Actually the opposite. 

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46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Agreed, but the temp right at the surface hours before an event isn’t always a good indicator of the boundary layer during the storm. Due to an inversion it was 32 at my house but 28 a few hundred yards away down the mountain.  So does that mean they will be 4 degrees colder during the storm?  Actually the opposite. 

Exactly. That's why I made the post. Silly to worry about surface temps, sun, etc leading up the the event. Maybe in mid March.

I was at 27 this morning. That wont help it snow in my yard later today.

eta- UHI areas it obv can have an impact on accums with a marginal airmass. With the low dews and dynamical cooling, it will snow regardless. Depending on rates, might take a bit longer to stick in the cities. I would expect areas right along I-95 to see about an inch.

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25 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Exactly. That's why I made the post. Silly to worry about surface temps, sun, etc leading up the the event. Maybe in mid March.

I was at 27 this morning. That wont help it snow in my yard later today.

eta- UHI areas it obv can have an impact on accums with a marginal airmass. With the low dews and dynamical cooling, it will snow regardless. Depending on rates, might take a bit longer to stick in the cities. I would expect areas right along I-95 to see about an inch.

Yea we're on the same page...but keep it out of the main threads... don't want to spoil their fun worrying about a degree or two the night before every event!

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4 hours ago, Scraff said:

Even Mappy? 

full head of hair, i'm good :) 

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6 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

OK boomer...

whats your point, CapeMayDoesn'tGetSnowToday?

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Just now, H2O said:

awwww.   enjoy higher sea levels 

Do you believe you will be exempt from the common destiny of snowless winters?

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Just now, Vice-Regent said:

Do you believe you will be exempt from the common destiny of snowless winters?

i believe I'll be exempt from the common stupidity of you

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16 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I need another HRRRRRRRRRRRR update

 

2685389F-C681-4AE8-902C-673699FB4253.jpeg

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30 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Hardly “all that has been talked about” Last 3/4 hours almost solely talks of accumulating snow for DC area.

 

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Can snow accumulate at 46 degrees?  Asking for a friend.  

 

3 hours ago, caviman2201 said:

The warm layer is so thin those of us E of 95 might be able to look up and watch our snowflakes melt.  Might be snowing at the top of the Legg Mason building in the innner harbor and raining on the street lol.

 

2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

A sharp gradient in snowfall totals is depicted as well toward the bay. Areas east of I-95 may struggle to reach 1 inch. A few in here have been pessimistic about their chances of receiving over an inch. It has merit, but that is just climo. Nothing much you can do. 

 

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Prime snow temps.  Once we get down to 40 at 5:30 pm, the getting will be good.   I'm at Navy Yard with a stout 5 feet elevation.  

 

3 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Sunny warm day here. Another fantastic forecast.

 

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

That UHI algorithm is a bitch.  I think it overdoes it a bit.  Has rain all the way up to the Montgomery/Frederick Line.   Sure.  

 

3 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

41.3.  Already warmer than the HRRR ;)

42 at DCA.  The torch is on.

 

 

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Uh oh... just hit 40...

 

3 hours ago, Steve25 said:

Not enough to allow for legitimate accumulation in DC or Baltimore. When I say legitimate, I mean an inch or more. Maybe I'll be wrong. 

 

3 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

Hard to ignore that it is 10am and I'm already warmer than the 12z 3km NAM had me all day.

Still hoping this sounding pans out.

2105513252_2020010712_NAMNST_008_38.93-77.19_winter_ml.thumb.png.617abdba54d2328ef04a476e6a7f0e98.png

 

3 hours ago, PhineasC said:

DC could hit 45-50 before the precip starts. What a hellhole. 

 

4 hours ago, Steve25 said:

I'm an amateur so forgive me, but am I really to expect accumulation in Baltimore with temps in the 40s, warm pavement already, and the system only lasting a few hours?

 

4 hours ago, Baltimorewx said:

I'm skeptical as well...we will ultimately see how high the temp gets. If mid 40s is a reality, I say no way. But a burst of snow is still probably in order around 5PM or so

 

4 hours ago, jaydreb said:

Pretty meh for DC metro though.  Congrats to jackpotville.   Pretty surprising that this has trended north with every run.  

 

4 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Bad trends for dca.

 

4 hours ago, Negnao said:

Fall line storm. Climatology takes over. 

 

5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Dry air can be a good thing when temps are sketchy.

 

6 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The air mass is not a cold one. Its cold this morning because it was perfect radiational cooling conditions overnight.

If the track were perfect, as guidance was suggesting over the past day or 2, then it might work out for eastern areas. Trends across guidance is a closer to the coast track, and with no real source of cold air, it comes down to dynamics. Best dynamics now appear to be coincident with the areas that tend to do well in marginal setups- inland.elevated, and less low level warming with the coastal. If this were not such a fast mover, then even with the further north/west track there might be some decent snow for eastern areas as the lower levels cool on the backside. That is not the case, however. Also a HP to the N or NW would change the outcome, but that also is not the case.

Now, continue whinging.

 

8 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Guess it was to be expected, but this system has pretty much morphed into a Fall line special (95 and N and W). Fully expect to see the death band to set up where we typically see it (PSU land hooking around S and W). Probably see 4-5 inches, with a jackpot or two of 6, through this region as we should see some 12-1+ ratio snow. There is one thing that could possibly knock these totals down somewhat. And that is if they were to lose some of this to low level warmth and rain considering that the precip comes in hot and heavy from the start. Really don't expect to see that except for maybe a few spritzes initially. Cities are probably good for an inch or two as well though they could surprise if we can limit the low level warmth before the onset.

 

8 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

28 here.

Trends on all guidance overnight and early this morning is a further north track, maybe outside of the Euro. It is cold now, but temps will warm today ahead of the developing low. With a further north/closer in track, the low level warmth will take longer to displace SE of I-95, and time is short for this one. Looks like a good thump for N central and maybe NE MD this evening. Looks very meh here with maybe a brief period of snow at the end. I should have stuck to my original plan and chased lol. Still might.

 

8 hours ago, H2O said:

North trend is bothersome for those(me) just S of the beltway in VA. I’m sure my temps will torch prior to precip and make it difficult to wet bulb down. The struggle to flip will be real. Enjoy all!

 

8 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

06Z looks a little rough. Looking 95, DC up to Balt, before onset we are seeing deeper low level warmth (Above 0, 925mb and down) vs what I saw on previous runs of between 975-950 mb. Sort of looks to me that it is taking the initial thump to cool the column down and by the time it does that the best lift has already exited the region. 

 

57 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

SW of us had the benefit of great timing with precip early in the AM. We're dealing with exactly what we were thinking yesterday... Boundary layer will be annoying...

 

56 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Herdon area has dropped 2-4 degrees in the last 30 mins once the rates picked up. Now mid 30's after being in the low 40s earlier. 

 

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Not for nothing, and that Middle River guy WAY overdoes the complaining, but at its core, he's not wrong. Of late- the last several years, it has really been hard to get temps inside the beltways to get back down sufficient to get the snow going in marginal events. We have had delayed starts in Balt City for every marginal event since the Jan. 16 monster. Maybe bad luck (even for a heat island), maybe something else. But early sun was kinda a bummer for folks that have a tough time cooling it back down again.

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